Starting Pitcher Chart – April 11th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2022 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | 2022 STATS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | WSN | R | x | x | x | 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 27% K-BB | Spotty control w/7 BB, but cancels it out w/18 Ks |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | at PIT | R | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24% K-BB | Double-digit K effort incoming? |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | KCR | R | x | x | x | 3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 39% K-BB | Bounced back beautifully v. BAL |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | at CLE | R | x | x | x | 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26% K-BB | No HR 2 GS in is nice after 1.4 HR/9 since ’19 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | MIA | R | x | x | x | 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB | One bad inning has his ERA elevated right now |
| Shane McClanahan | TBR | BOS | L | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24% K-BB | First real challenge of the year |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | DET | R | x | x | x | 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Looked great in 2nd start & should stay hot w/this matchup |
| Pablo López | MIN | CHW | R | x | x | x | 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 16% K-BB | MIN loving their new ace w/b2b 8 K efforts |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | at ARI | R | x | x | x | 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24% K-BB | A 3rd straight dud would certainly raise some concerns |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at PHI | L | x | x | x | 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Is this the beginning of the full scale breakout season? |
| Lance Lynn | CHW | at MIN | R | x | x | x | 3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Battled inconsistency last yr |
| Dustin May | LAD | at SFG | R | x | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Only downside to blistering start is meager 8% SwStr |
| Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | OAK | R | x | x | x | 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 27% K-BB in MiLB | Looked as good as advertisted in debut |
| Hayden Wesneski | CHC | SEA | R | x | x | x | 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Not sweating the modest debut at CIN |
| Kyle Wright | ATL | CIN | R | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Could be limited in season debut after shoulder injury |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | MIL | R | x | x | x | 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Held him own in 2 starts v. LAD |
| David Peterson | NYM | SDP | L | x | x | 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB | 14% BB rate will catch him to him if he doesn’t improve it | |
| Garrett Whitlock | BOS | at TBR | R | x | 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 22% K-BB | Pick up where available, but needn’t start v. hottest tm in MLB | ||
| Kyle Muller | OAK | at BAL | L | x | 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB in MiLB | Decent in 2 GS v. a pair of solid squads | ||
| Matt Manning | DET | at TOR | R | x | 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Would trust him so much more if he had a bat-missing pitch | ||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | HOU | R | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Bottom half of lineup rose up v. Contreras & could nip Keller, too | ||
| Alex Wood | SFG | LAD | L | 5.10 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB | Still avoiding LAD when I can | |||
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | at CHC | R | 3.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8% K-BB | Upside usually not worth the heavy risk | |||
| Hunter Gaddis | CLE | NYY | R | 4.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K-BB in MiLB | Great at OAK, but can’t trust him v. good tms yet | |||
| Luis Cessa | CIN | at ATL | R | 4.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9% K-BB | ATL too good to risk this | |||
| Jordan Lyles | KCR | at TEX | R | 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Far too hittable to trust against anything but worst tms | |||
| Ryan Weathers | SDP | at NYM | L | 6.73 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 6% K-BB in MiLB | Intriguing long-term arm, no chance at NYM | |||
| Miles Mikolas | STL | at COL | R | 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Too hittable to risk in Coors (10 ER in 1 GS there last yr) | |||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | STL | L | 4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Good for a handful of home gems, but impossible to time ’em | |||
| Josiah Gray | WSN | at LAA | R | 5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 14% K-BB | Keeping tabs on him, but can’t start until HRs come down |
Mikolas Coors start last year: 2.2 IP, 14 hits, 10 runs.