Starting Pitcher Chart – April 10th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | 2022 STATS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | HOU | at PIT | L | x | x | x | 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Elite GBer has his SwStr up to a career-high 13% early on |
| Luis Castillo | SEA | at CHC | R | x | x | x | 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Velo down a bit, but hasn’t hurt him at all |
| Shane Bieber | CLE | NYY | R | x | x | x | 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Not an easy matchup, but obviously he’s an auto-start |
| Dylan Cease | CHW | at MIN | R | x | x | x | 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Still has shaky command that will bring volatility, but the upside remains huge |
| Julio Urías | LAD | at SFG | L | x | x | x | 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 18% K-BB | BABIP is up, but he’s just decided to not walk anyone (literally 0 so far) |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at PHI | R | x | x | x | 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 18% K-BB | His 15% SwStr says the 13% K rate will jump |
| Max Scherzer | NYM | SDP | R | x | x | x | 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 26% K-BB | One modest start, one bad one… no real reason to worry right now |
| Yu Darvish | SDP | at NYM | R | x | x | x | 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Had 4 BB in his season open v. ARI last yr, too |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | MIL | R | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Tough open w/trips to SD and LA, I’m not worried |
| Kyle Gibson | BAL | OAK | R | x | x | x | 5.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 13% K-BB | Solid thru 2 with a nice 2-step this week: OAK, at CWS |
| Andrew Heaney | TEX | KCR | L | x | x | x | 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 29% K-BB | Devastatingly bad first start, but I’ll give him at least one more shot |
| José Suarez | LAA | WSN | L | x | x | x | 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Popular sleeper was clipped for a couple HRs in his debut |
| Logan Webb | SFG | LAD | R | x | x | x | 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB | First home start is a tough draw but I’m still starting him |
| Graham Ashcraft | CIN | at ATL | R | x | x | x | 4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9% K-BB | If he generates whiffs consistently, there is big breakout potential |
| Domingo Germán | NYY | at CLE | R | x | x | 3.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB | Showed the ups & downs in his debut w/8 Ks & 0 BB, but also 2 HR and just 4.3 IP | |
| Kenta Maeda | MIN | CHW | R | x | x | 4.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 18% K-BB in 2021 | Left his debut w/fatigue, but looked great w/9 Ks and 0 BB | |
| Wade Miley | MIL | at ARI | L | x | x | 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9% K-BB | Sneaky solid streamer | |
| JP Sears | OAK | at BAL | L | x | x | 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Could see some deep league usefulness throughout the season | |
| Matt Strahm | PHI | MIA | L | x | 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 18% K-BB | Building up his stamina, but could lose spot when Ranger Suarez returns | ||
| Nick Pivetta | BOS | at TBR | R | x | 4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13% K-BB | It’s hard to feel confident with anyone v. TBR right now | ||
| Zack Greinke | KCR | at TEX | R | x | 3.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8% K-BB | Can give some ERA value if you can take on the WHIP | ||
| Bryce Elder | ATL | CIN | R | x | 3.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Decent 2-step this week v. CIN and at KCR for the IP-eater type | ||
| Roansy Contreras | PIT | HOU | R | x | 3.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 12% K-BB | HOU lineup isn’t terribly deep so you can use him if you’re a Contreras believer | ||
| Steven Matz | STL | at COL | L | 5.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 21% K-BB | There have been some gems in Coors, but I can’t do it | |||
| Germán Márquez | COL | STL | R | 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Gets trips to SEA and PHI after this start so while not Coors, still not easy | |||
| Josh Fleming | TBR | BOS | L | 6.43 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Just doesn’t miss bats consistently | |||
| Drew Smyly | CHC | SEA | L | 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Health and talent risk getting another tough start | |||
| Patrick Corbin | WSN | at LAA | L | 6.31 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 11% K-BB | MLB-worst 6.10 ERA since ’21 (min. 300 IP), over a run worse than MadBum’s 4.85 |
Love this! Thanks, Paul!