Starting Pitcher Avg EV Improvers — Through June 3, 2023

Since 2015, there’s been a small, but positive correlation (about 0.19) between average exit velocity (EV) against and BABIP. In other words, the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP. Of course, there are many other factors involved, as the correlation isn’t very high, but it’s there. And all else equal, a pitcher does desire to induce soft contact versus hard. So let’s find out which starting pitchers have reduced their average EV marks the most compared to last season.

José Berríos is one of just three starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022 and 2023 that has reduced his average EV by at least 2.0 MPH. The improvement is great to see, as he’s coming off his highest EV last year since his 2016 debut. he’s still not generating pop-ups at a league average rate, but his LD% against is at a career low, barely, while he’s generating the highest GB% of his career. His strikeout rate has also partially rebounded, as his SwStk% is back into double digits, driving a career best CSW%. Oddly, his BABIP is still stuck above .300, to the second highest mark of his career, if you exclude his small sample 2016 debut. But at least it’s come down from his inflated mark last year! It now looks pretty clear that last season was the outlier, and he’s back to showing decent enough skills to be an asset in shallow mixed leagues.

Shohei Ohtani is actually leading starting pitchers in EV allowed, which is just not fair. He has suppressed line drives, allowing just a 16.7% rate, and even though he has been a ground ball pitcher, has still generated a double digit IFFB%. The modern day Babe Ruth indeed.

Despite soft underlying skills, Justin Steele has parlayed his ability to induce weak contact into a strong follow-up from his 2022 season, but will have to prove his arm is healthy when he returns from the IL. There’s nothing exciting about Steele’s skill set, but a low average EV has allowed him to post a better than league average BABIP and just a 3% HR/FB rate. There’s little reason to expect that HR/FB rate will stick, but the BABIP could. His Statcast xERA suggests he has only be slightly lucky, compared with his SIERA, which suggests he has been extremely lucky. That’s because Statcast is accounting for his contact quality against.

Since he only has a little more than a season’s worth of innings under his belt, it’s impossible to know if this is a true skill or just a good run. He pretty much owns league average BABIP and HR/FB rates over his career, but is still overperforming both his expected ERA calculations. Personally, it’s not the type of pitcher I want on my roster, as these types will always be a sell high in my mind. While the low BABIP and HR/FB rate could continue, I’d simply rather bet on a higher strikeout rate.

This isn’t much lower than Nathan Eovaldi’s career average, but he has maintained last year’s low LD%, which would rank second best in his career. He is also posting the second highest GB% of his career, but his IFFB% has slid back into single digits after jumping into double digits for the past two seasons. He’s still the same pitcher he has been recently, so there’s no reason to think he’s good enough to post a sub-3.00 ERA. Eventually, he’s going to start giving up a lot more home runs.

It figures that I drafted Mitch Keller in my shallow mixed league and then think I’m selling high on him early, so I end up barely benefiting from his breakout. One of the reasons I didn’t fully believe in the breakout is that his SwStk%, while higher than usual, is still unimpressive at 10.4%, and actually below the 11% league average. So the strikeout rate surge is also being driven by a surge in called strike rate, which just isn’t something I’m willing to bet on as much to continue. What’s odd is he keeps posting strong EV marks, but worse than league average BABIP marks. He’s once again allowing a higher rate of line drives than the league average. Even worse, his IFFB% is a measly 3.1%. So that explains the .308 BABIP, but it’s hard to believe he’s allowing a low average EV and still posting such a weak batted ball profile! Maybe it’s just sour grapes that I traded him too early, but I remain skeptical here.

JP Sears’ season is the perfect example of why pitcher wins is the dumbest stat and it should be banished for use by fantasy leagues. He’s still winless over 11 starts, despite a perfectly acceptable 4.37 ERA, including six starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs. And no, I’m not a disgruntled owner at all, couldn’t be! Anyhow, he’s been an extreme fly ball pitcher, allowing an absurd 55.8% FB%. If he was going to do it on any team, Oakland’s home park is one of the best for this type of pitcher. That massive FB%, combined with the low 16.3% LD% explains the low .252 BABIP. I’d expect his 13.5% HR/FB rate to come down a bit as well. He’s only gone two starts without allowing a home run, so perhaps he’ll finally record a win the next time he does it. Actually, it would be funnier if he went winless all season.