Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 2/3/2025

 

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Pablo López (+18.76) – Lopez is rising as people see that he was pretty unlucky in 2024. He threw 185.1 innings with a 4.08 ERA but a 3.67 xERA and a 3.46 SIERA. He was his fantastic self in the second half, throwing 81.1 innings with a 2.77 ERA which makes me more confident he will be back to being a stud in 2025. 

Roki Sasaki (+73.93) – Sasaki is rising after signing a deal with the Dodgers this offseason. This rise is going to continue too. Sasaki has great stuff, but has struggled with health issues previously in Japan and is now pitching in MLB for the first time. I don’t think this ADP is completely out of pocket, but if he continues to rise, it likely becomes too cost prohibitive for an unknown. 

Spencer Schwellenbach (+13.78) –  Schwellenbach is rising after a fantastic second half where he threw 79 innings with a 2.73 ERA and 86 strikeouts. Schwellenbach has a full arsenal and great control and command. There is some risk as he has had big innings jumps, but the skills are about as good as you can ask for and I am happy to pay his current price. 

Top 100 Players Falling

Luis Castillo (-16.06) – Castillo is dropping in the ADP after a mediocre season where his ERA and WHIP rose and his strikeout rate dropped from 27% to 24%. His swinging strike rate dropped and his zone-contact rose as well. I don’t think he will be a complete bust, but these are things that are concerning to me. 

Top 200 Players Rising

None

Top 200 Players Falling

Spencer Strider (-15.35) – Strider is falling with the reports he won’t be ready for the start of the season. He is expected to be ready by late spring and could even pitch in Spring Training. I tend to stay away from guys returning from Tommy John and while Strider didn’t have TJ and had the internal brace surgery, we just don’t have a huge sample size of pitchers returning from the to know how quickly they can be back to themselves. At this point, we don’t know when he will be ready or what his innings will look like. Until I see him pitch, I won’t be drafting him. 

Kevin Gausman (-15.95) – Gausman is dropping after a down season for him where his ERA and WHIP rose and strikeout rate dropped. Gausman has been walking a thin line for a while, but 2024 was when things really started to get scary. His Stuff + dropped under 100 for the first time of his career, his swinging strike rate dropped and he allowed. At age 34 this may be the beginning of the end for him, so I am on board with this drop in the ADP. 

Shane Baz (-15.38) – Baz is dropping most likely due to the change in park that the Rays will be going through. The are going to be playing at Steinbrenner Field which is a massive change from a domed pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park outside. That being said, I really like Baz and think this is going to be his first year with the leash let off of him. He has great stuff and his command was very good last season. I think there are some workload concerns, but at some point the Rays will need to push him and at age 25, it is now. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Drew Rasmussen (+28.14) – Rasmussen is rising after his extension with the Rays and reports that he will be moving back into the rotation. I think the biggest question on Rasmussen is where his innings will be after only throwing 28.2 innings last season. I would assume the Rays let him get to at least 130 innings, but he is also 29 and there is no reason that they should protect him at this point. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Bowden Francis (-23.79) – I am a bit surprised to see Francis dropping here. After returning after the break, he threw 65 innings of a 1.80 ERA with 58 strikeouts. He benefited from a tiny BABIP and a massive strand rate, but the underlying numbers were still pretty good. I am looking forward to taking advantage of the price drop. 

Jeffrey Springs (-27.49) – Springs is moving down after being traded to the Athletics. With the A’s moving to Sacramento, he won’t get to pitch in the Coliseum or in the Trop which is more difficult. However, I think he is just a really good pitcher. He struggled a bit with command which is typical of TJ returnees, but he finished the year strong 

Jackson Jobe (-36.16) – Jobe is falling with the fears he won’t start the year in the Tigers rotation after Detroit signed Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty. While that may be true, Jobe is one of the Tigers best pitchers and deserves to be in the rotation. Even if he doesn’t make the team, I would be shocked if he isn’t up early. If the price keeps dropping, I would be a buyer. 

Others of Note

Grant Holmes (+80.37) – Holmes has been a popular sleeper this draft season which is why he is rising. He was very good in his 68.1 innings last season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 70 strikeouts. He showed great command and control, but I am nervous that he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff. He is in the rotation and there is some upside, but the price is starting to get higher and I am not sold on him if it keeps going up. 

Andrew Painter (-83.09) – Painter is dropping because it seems like he won’t be in the rotation to start the season. Painter is still coming back from TJ, but his future is bright as the Phillies top pitching prospect. The problem is he feels like a midseason promotion which makes him difficult to roster in most formats.