Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 12/27/2025

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Bryan Woo (+10.96) – Woo is rising after starting off a bit low in the ADP. He is coming off of his best season to date, where he threw 186.2 innings with a 2.94 ERA and 198 strikeouts. Most importantly, Woo was able to make 30 starts for the first time as a Major Leaguer. In his first two seasons, he struggled with forearm/elbow issues which limited him to 87.2 innings in the Majors in 2023 and 121.1 innings in 2024. It appears he is past those issues now and deserves to be in the second tier of starters behind the big three. 

Dylan Cease (+11.9) – Cease is rising after signing a massive deal in Toronto. Cease is coming off of a disappointing season in which he posted a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings for the Padres. However, his underlying numbers where much better with a xERA of 3.46 and a 3.58 SIERA. Cease will always have a great ceiling with 30% strikeout rate and the ability to consistently throw a boatload of innings. However, he is erratic with his control and he really struggled the second and third time through the order last season. His volatility makes him a risky bet as an SP1 or SP2. 

Jesus Luzardo (+16.94) –  Luzardo is rising due to his glowing projections and underlying numbers. He threw the most innings in the Majors of his career and posted a 3.92 ERA, but a 3.34 xERA. The problem for Luzardo were the blow up starts. Luzardo had four starts where he allowed five or more earned runs including two truly disastrous starts in back to back games where he allowed 20 earned runs in 5.2 innings.  There will be some people that dismiss those starts and look at the rest of the body of work, but that is a part of his profile along with a shaky health track record. He is likely already going too high. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Sonny Gray (+24.79) – Gray is rising after being traded to the Red Sox this offseason. After struggling with health earlier in his career, Gray has been remarkably healthy over the last three seasons, starting at least 28 games in each season, including taking a full 32 turns last season. He is no longer the ace he once was, but he has posted two straight seasons of better than 100 Location+ and he is fantastic at limiting walks and damage. 

Tatsuya Imai (+123.45) – Imai is rising after being posted and now signing a deal with the Astros. It is always hard to know how Japanese pitchers will fare in their first full season at the Major League level. We do know he will be on a competitive team which gives him a lot of win upside and his stuff should get strikeouts with the slider, but there are potential control issues and we do not know how he will handle the schedule difference, though recent reports suggest the Astros could move to a six man rotation at least to start the season. With recent success of other Japanese pitchers, there will be high expectations and that may make him even more expensive over the next couple of weeks. 

Shane Baz (+17.61) – Baz is rising after being traded to the Orioles this offseason. Baz had a very up and down season. He was great in the first month of the season and then struggled before finishing strong. He was terrible at home at Steinbrenner Field but much better on the road. He heads to Baltimore which will be a much better home park and could be a better team than the Orioles showed in 2025. The stuff has always been pretty good and maybe a change of scenery could be what he needs.

Top 200 Players Falling

Zach Wheeler (-23.51) – Wheeler is falling with the news that he will not be ready until late May. Wheeler is coming off of Thoracic Outlet surgery after getting a blood clot in his right shoulder. This isn’t the type of TOS that derailed other pitcher’s careers but it’s hard to know what Wheeler will be in his return at age 36 and he is better left off of most league’s draft lists. 

Shota Imanaga (-20.46) – Imanaga is falling after signing the qualifying offer to stay with the Cubs for 2026. Imanaga is coming off of a disappointing season where he struggled with home runs and injury. He still has fantastic control, but he left pitches in the zone too often and got burned, especially in the final month of the season. A return to health might help him, but if he continues to live in the zone as much as he does, he will struggle to keep the ball in the yard. 

Carlos Rodon (-53.01) – Rodon is falling after reports that he will likely be out until at least May after getting his elbow cleaned up. We never like to hear “elbow” issues or that a guy isn’t going to be ready for the first month of the season. I would be taking him off my draft board in most formats.  

Top 300 Players Rising

Troy Melton (+17.25) – Melton is rising after confirmation from the Tigers that he will be a starter in 2025. Melton joined the Tigers from the minors after the All-Star as a starter but transitioned to the bullpen for the stretch run. He is a top 100 prospect with good stuff and control. If he is in the rotation to start the year, he could throw 150+ valuable innings for fantasy managers. With so many young, enticing arms this season, Melton shouldn’t rise too much more. 

Sean Manaea (+75.38) – Manaea is rising tremendously after a terrible season in which he struggled with health. The Mets recently said they expect him to be healthy heading into 2026, but Manaea has a long history of health struggles and while he was great in 2024, he has had performance inconsistencies over his career as well. The 34-year-old is a gamble heading into 2026 even if the price isn’t prohibitive yet. 

Braxton Ashcraft (+17.97) – Ashcraft is rising after coming off a fantastic MLB debut where he threw 69.2 innings for the Pirates with a 2.71 ERA. Ashcraft has a great slider and a good curveball with adequate command and should be locked into a mid-rotation spot with the Pirates. The concern will be with his fastball which was hit hard in his time at the Majors, so he will have to sequence well and rely on the breaking stuff. He is still affordable but if he goes up too much the value may not be worth it. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Bailey Ober (-30.01) – Ober is dropping after a disastrous season where he was lit up for a 5.10 ERA. Ober had been the King of Control and while he was still good there, the stuff took a massive step back the last two seasons and was pummeled when he was in the zone. Unless we see a big step up in stuff come Spring Training, he should probably be ignored in most formats. 

Others of Note

Jonah Tong (-40.02) – Tong is dropping due to not being penciled into the Mets starting rotation as of now. Tong has also been mentioned in trade rumors as a potential piece to get back a stud for the Mets, which might be good for his role in the short term. Tong struggled in his short debut with the Mets, but he is still a top 50 prospect and there is a ton of upside in his arm. It is a matter of time before he is in a Major League rotation either in New York or somewhere else. 

Cody Ponce 폰세 (+177.74) – Ponce is rising after signing a deal to return to the Majors after four seasons in the NPB and KBO. He was pumping 96 in Korea with a good changeup so there is a good foundation with the Blue Jays to work with. It is hard to know how successful Ponce will be, but we have seen pitchers returning from the KBO and NPB have success in their first season back and the price is still very affordable.