Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 12/26/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

 

Top 100 Players Rising

Pablo Lopez (+19.4) – Lopez is rising after a fantastic season where he threw a career high 194 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 234 strikeouts. He was especially dominant in the second half, posting a 3.36 ERA. Injuries have been an issue for Lopez in the past, but he has now thrown two healthy seasons in a row and should be considered a top 5-10 starter this season. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+27.21) – Yamamoto is rising after signing a massive deal to pitch in Los Angeles for the Dodgers. Yamamoto boosts a five pitch arsenal that includes multiple potentially elite pitches. He was the top pitching prize in the free agency market and will likely continue to rise in the ADP. That being said, it is always hard to predict how well or quickly international players can translate to the Majors. I am not overly concerned that he will be bad, but the price already being so high makes it difficult for me to pull the trigger on him prior to seeing him pitch against Major League hitters. 

Bobby Miller (+17.33) –  Miller is rising after a nice rookie season in which he threw 124.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 119 strikeouts. Miller has the stuff to be a frontline starter and is on the best team in baseball which gives him a ton of win potential. As pitching prices continue to rise, he may become so expensive that he becomes too much of a risk considering the Dodgers will employ some sort of six man (six day) rotation and they could be careful with the young ace’s innings. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Sonny Gray (+18.29) – Gray is rising after signing a deal in St. Louis to front their rotation. I have not been a big fan of Gray in the past due to his slight frame and funky mechanics, but in spite of this and the rising cost, I am pretty intrigued by the landing spot. Busch Stadium is a great place to pitch, he has one of the best defenses in baseball picking him up and a great offense supporting him. The 34-year-old does have some risk, but I think it is a risk worth taking as long as the price doesn’t continue to rise much more. 

Shane Baz (+18.28) – Baz is rising as people get excited about the former top prospect’s return to the mound. Prior to needing Tommy John surgery, Baz was looking very impressive in terms of his stuff. While I love Baz’s potential, I have some major concerns about what his innings total will look like in 2024. He only threw 40 innings in 2022 prior to needing surgery and while he has had over 18 months to recover, the Rays are traditionally pretty conservative with their pitchers in general. I would take the gamble in shallower formats, but in deeper ones, he may not be worth the risk. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Hunter Greene (-15.91) – I am a little surprised to see Greene dropping as he is typically a favorite of a lot of the drafters looking for upside because of his fantastic stuff. The problem for Greene is he struggles with command and consistency which is a difficult thing to struggle in a park like Cincinnati’s which is why I assume he is dropping. If he can learn to command his stuff, then he could be a massive bargain, but that is a big if. 

Max Scherzer (-57.71) – Scherzer is dropping after the news came out that he had back surgery and will be out until June or July. Unless you have a ton of IL spots in your league, he is best to avoid in spite of the massive discount. 

Shane Bieber (-31.16) – Bieber is dropping after a season in which he missed a ton of time for the second time out of the last three seasons. On top of the injuries, Bieber also had a ton of skill regression. His strikeout rate dropped again and he allowed a ton of hard contact. There is a ton of risk that he completely falls off the table, but he is also only a season removed from an elite 200 inning season. I have never been a believer in Bieber and this price drop doesn’t change that for me. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Brandon Pfaadt (+16.91) – Pfaadt is rising after a brilliant postseason performance in which he threw 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 26 strikeouts. However, Pfaadt struggled prior to the playoffs throwing 96 innings in the regular season with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. So which guy will we get in 2024? I tend to want to believe we will get the playoff version. The stuff is good and he was able to limit the walks. If the command is closer to the command we saw in the playoffs, then he could be one of the breakout pitchers this year.  

Charlie Morton (+45.97) – I am a little surprised that Morton is rising at the rate that he is. While he threw 163.1 innings of a 3.64 ERA with 183 strikeouts, it came with a 1.43 WHIP and some pretty ugly underlying statistics. He had the worst walk rate and the highest hard contact percentage of his career. He is on a good team and he has been an effective pitcher for the last few seasons, but I think there are a lot of red flags that I am not willing to ignore. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Andrew Abbott (-20.38) – Abbott is dropping after his hot start to his career fell apart in the second half when he threw 67.2 innings with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Abbott really struggled with the walks, allowing 22 walks in his 44.1 innings in August and September which really hurt him when he could give up home runs. Abbott doesn’t have overpowering stuff so when the control eludes him it can get really ugly. Unless we see something in spring training, he probably should be avoided.  

Kyle Harrison (-22.43) –  I am surprised that Harrison is dropping in the ADP. He is a top prospect and while he was up and down in the Majors, he had some brilliant moments including an 11 strikeout performance versus a tough Reds offense and a five inning shutout versus the Dodgers to close the season. The main issue with Harrison is his command. He struggled hitting his spot within the zone and allowed a lot of fly balls which led to over two home runs per nine innings. His stuff was also not as impressive as his prospect reports had indicated which was concerning. The fastball 93 from the left hand side, but it didn’t get the whiffs that it did in the minors. I am not out on him as a prospect, but I am concerned and unless I get a big discount on him in a draft, I don’t imagine he will be on many of my teams. 

 

Others of Note

Frankie Montas (+34.85) – Montas is rising after signing to pitch for the Reds. However, the fact he now pitches in the worst park in baseball and he is coming off of a lost season due to injury means in spite of the low price, he probably isn’t worth the risk. 

Clayton Kershaw (-235.11) – Kershaw is dropping due to the fact he likely won’t pitch until the summer if at all since he has yet to even sign a contract for 2024. 

Erick Fedde 페디 (+235.51) – Fedde is rising after signing a deal to pitch for the White Sox after a year pitching in the KBO. Fedde was great in Korea, limiting walks and home runs while increasing his strikeout rate tremendously. Fedde was a prospect of note at one point in his career, but struggled previously in the Majors. He is someone to watch in spring training as it is hard to know how much of his gains in Korea are about the level of competition or an actual change in his profile.