Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Carlos Carrasco (+16.44)- Since being traded to the Mets, Carrasco has been moving up the ADP for good reason. Moving from Cleveland to New York should be good for his ability to win more games and the park factors are much better for him. Steamer has him as the seventh best pitcher according to the auction calculator. He is going off the board as the 21st starting pitcher which makes him a great value still even with the price going up. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Kevin Gausman (+32.55)- Gausman has been an industry favorite for so long that now that he has finally delivered, it is not surprising to see him continue to climb up the ADP. However, the problems that plagued him for most of his career are still there despite the breakout. He is still just a two pitch guy and when that splitter isn’t working, he will struggle. The price is becoming difficult to pull the trigger on. We have seen what he can do in short stretches, but we still need to see it over a full season. I’m struggling to rationalize the price.  

Charlie Morton (+41.49)- Early in the draft season, there was speculation that Morton could retire which depressed his price, but now that we know he will be in Atlanta, the price is back on the rise. There are some concerns with Morton. He struggled with shoulder issues that caused him to struggle throughout the season. Injuries were what derailed the early part of Morton’s career so it is scary that another big one popped up. In his defense, he was very good in the playoffs, throwing 20 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, three wins, and 23 strikeouts. If healthy, Morton is a stud, but I do question his health. 

Joe Musgrove (+22.00)- Stop this one if you have heard it before. Musgrove had a late season flourish that came off the back of a velocity game and now is a “wide awake sleeper”. In the last month of the season, he had a 2.16 ERA, a .92 WHIP and 38.8% strikeout rate. The question is whether it is legit this time or not. While the swinging strikeout rate went up to 14.4%, he is likely not going to have a 30+% strikeout rate, but I don’t expect it to drop back to a 20-23% rate either. The move to San Diego gives him a better chance at winning a lot of games as well. The price is the difficult part. Usually when a guy has a great final month they are somewhat hidden by a 162 game season, but since a month was half the 2020 season, there is no discount whatsoever. 

Tyler Mahle (+27.55)- Coming into 2020, Mahle didn’t have a spot in the rotation, but injuries for the Reds forced him into starting where he stayed for the majority of the season. In spite of being a flyball guy, he only allowed six total home runs in his 10 outings. While he may not be able to sustain that, it wasn’t undeserved. His IFFB% was 13.8% and his xHR in 2020 was 5.1. He has great command and a great fastball/slider combo. I don’t know that there is another level to Mahle, but I do believe that he can repeat what he did in 2020. 

Jordan Montgomery (+44.67)- While the Yankees may not be done adding starters, it seems like Montgomery has a spot in the rotation as it’s only lefty right now. The question is, why is he rising? To be honest, I don’t quite get it. He is a 28-year-old that has struggled with health throughout his career and has not really found success at the Major League level. He does have four usable pitches and decent command, but no pitch that is very good. I don’t think that he will be bad, but I also don’t buy the hype and he is now above guys like Triston McKenzie, Chris Bassit, and Heaney which doesn’t make a lot of sense. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Marco Gonzales (-28.16)- Gonzales is a guy that is always under appreciated, but all he does is deliver. He has fantastic command and limits hard contact by keeping hitters off balanced. What makes Gonzales drop is low strikeouts and the projections are bad for him. However, like guys like Kyle Hendricks, projections often underrate command and control guys. He will offer some real value is his price continues to drop. 

David Price (-34.47)- Price opted out in 2020 and there was talk that he could do that again in 2021, which is part of the reason for his drop in the ADP. That being said, it seems like the Dodgers are expecting him to be in the rotation this year and if he is he should offer strikeouts and good ratios against batters who have never seen him before. There is risk in a guy that hasn’t pitched in a full year, but he also should be healthy and well rested. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Drew Smyly (+52.94)- Smyly has been one of the biggest risers so far this draft season. He is coming off best season since 2016 where he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and a 37.8% strikeout rate. The biggest issue with Smyly is innings and health. He only made it through five innings twice in 2020 and he has struggled with injuries his entire career. The Braves made a big play to sign him and are likely to optimize his usage by not over-working him, which means you are likely to get good numbers from him in strikeouts and the ratios, but not in wins or quality starts. If the price continues to rise, he may price himself out of being a good value. 

John Means (+30.79)- Means had a weird season with missed time and struggles. However, over his last four starts, he threw 23.2 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.52 ERA.  More importantly than the numbers was the fact he got the feel for his dominant changeup back. There is risk with a guy that gives up the homers he does, but when his command is on, he is a really excellent pitcher. 

Jake Odorizzi (+41.95)- I am surprised that Odorizzi is moving up the ADP. He is still a free agent and his 2020 was a disaster. I am guessing many are writing off his 2020 because he was injured, but I have concerns about his health and whether a new team will utilize him as effectively as the Twins did in 2019. I am fading him until I see him sign somewhere and likely even after that as well. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Triston McKenzie (-47.06)- McKenzie is continuing to drop in spite of a pretty nice debut in 2020. He is a former top prospect and typically that would help him rise up the ADP. I love the skills that he showed, but talent has never been the issue with him. McKenzie has battled to stay healthy and before making his Major League debut in 2020, he hadn’t pitched since 2018. His slight frame and previous injury history points to higher risk in predicting future injury and the likelihood that Cleveland may limit his innings to protect him. The price is becoming very affordable, but there is a lot of risk in terms of workload and health. 

Christian Javier (-31.67)- Javier is another prospect that people are beginning to fade and I tend to agree with him. I like the fastball/slider combo that he has, but he lacks a third pitch he is comfortable throwing. I expect him to get a shot at starting, but until he develops a third pitch that he can use more, his future is likely in the bullpen. 

Nate Pearson (-49.76)- Pearson is an example of the fantasy community writing off prospects when they have a bad debut. Pearson was widely considered one of the best prospect pitchers in all of baseball coming into last season. While he struggled once up, he flashed the upside that many of us in the industry have salivated over for years. Unfortunately, his season was interrupted by elbow soreness and in spite of coming back and pitching well, people are avoiding him like the plague. The price is becoming too good to pass up, but there is risk the elbow issues pop back up and you get little to nothing from him.