Spring Training Notes (3/9/18): Archer’s Change, Astros at First, Brewers Leadoff

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March 9, 2018

3/8/18

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

In the game, Christian Yelich led off with Lorenzo Cain batting second. In the three games when both have been in the lineup, Yelich has led off in each one. This lineup position will be a small hit to Yelich’s value. While he’ll get 30 extra at-bats during the season, he’ll start off the game with no RBI chances. Also, hitting after the pitcher limiting his opportunities even more.

Rays vs Red Sox
I watched Chris Archer’s start to see how his changeup is coming along. It’s really not.

  • Fastball: Straight
  • Slider: Looked good
  • Change: The change is OK but not a game changer. He did get a swing-and-miss from Mookie Betts with one. It seemed to always be on the release side of the plate with a small amount of sink. It’s acceptable to keep hitters guessing if they know it may get thrown. Right-handed hitters didn’t have to worry about it as they only saw seven total last season.

 

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Archer needs to throw it to righties at least 5% of the time, possibly even 10%, to keep hitters from zeroing in on his other two pitches.

Astros-Braves

Yulieski Gurriel will be out until at least mid-April which opens up the Astros first base to takers. It looks to be J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and A.J. Reed vying for the job according to their manager.

“Obviously, Whitey had a good day today; Davis has had good days; Reed’s swinging the bat better,” Hinch said. “Those three guys, in particular, are fighting for the job.”

While the replacement won’t likely stay, they can provide an option for the Gurriel owner. Here is each one’s projected and spring training OPS.

Name: Spring Training, Projected
Davis: 1.179, .716
Reed: .946, .730
White: 1.062, .724

It’s impossible to figure out the top guy with each hitting great now and they are projected within 14 points of OPS. With the projections similar, I’d not be surprised one bit if the Astros went with the hot hand.

Dodgers vs Indians

Matt Kemp looks to start the season as the Dodgers starting left fielder. He hit 5th in this game and upped his OPS to 1.248 with Joc Pederson only hitting a .432 OPS so far. While it’s only spring training, Kemps projected OPS is .776 with Pederson at .816. Pederson’s is better but not by a ton. While Kemp may not keep the left-field job for the whole season, he looks to have the inside track for now.

Mariners vs Giants

Possibly Rule 5 pickup Mike Ford will play first base while Ryon Healy heals. The 25-year-old Ford hit 20 homers in the minors last season while walking over 16% of the time. The juiced ball and good eye make him a nice sleeper as Ryon Healey isn’t going to be an All-Star. Owners could take a chance on Ford in the reserve rounds and then quickly move on if he struggles.

Fastball Velocities: From pitch tracking system installed at Salt Rivers (Rockies and D-Backs home park), teams with a broadcast radar (Mets, Nationals, and Yankees home games), and Twitter. Complete spreadsheet.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago

Did the Dodgers say anything about Kemp starting in LF? I can’t find anything online to that effect. If not, I can’t imagine the Dodgers of all organizations would be fooled by a spring SSS. Even if he is healthier and playing nice, the most I could imagine is that he would open on the short side of a platoon with Pederson or Toles

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johansantana17
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I second this. Toles has looked more impressive than Kemp so far.

1