Spin-Vestigation! II: The De-Whiffening

With the so-called “sticky-stuff” memo getting released almost exactly one year ago, it seems about time to take another peek at which pitchers have been spinning the ball less since the crackdown was announced and how much (if any) their stuff and/or results have been affected since.

Keep in mind that we can’t just make a broad generalization of more spin equaling better pitches, or that less spin equals a worse pitch. Changes in spin can garner better or worse results but the most definitive conclusion we can make is what physical (movement) changes it has resulted in and what results have come from it. While it does look easy to connect the dots between giant drops in spin suddenly occurring immediately after MLB released their new enforcement memo, it’s still circumstantial evidence and changes in pitch shape, movement, etc can always occur from year to year, and the use of nefarious grip enhancers doesn’t have to be every answer. 

The changes in spin, whiff rates, etc, are all just breadcrumbs when it comes to analyzing pitcher performance, and no one metric is going to get you the whole loaf. But they can be important clues and the more you stack up, the more confident we can be in our conclusions. And when you find some pitchers that have seen significant drops in their spin, movement, whiffs, and overall performance, and they all happened to start around June 2nd of last year, it’s okay to wonder who was driving the bus behind their previously excellent results. The pitcher, or the goo?

To find some of these examples, we’ll look at each pitch by type and break up the time since the start of last season into three periods (min. 75 pitches per period):

1. Beginning of 2021 – June 2nd (pre-mem0)
2. June 3rd – End of 2021 (post-memo)
3. 2022 Season through June 1st

In 2021, there were 894 individual pitches that qualified pre- and post-memo, and only 10 of them increased their average spin by at least 100 rpm from pre to post. On the flip side, there were 215 pitches that dropped by at least 100 rpm – 73 pitchers made the list once, 79 pitchers made it twice, 12 hit a triple, and four pulled a quad.

But only two pitchers landed a platinum sombrero.

Walker Buehler claimed one and the drops between pre- and post-memo weren’t skimpy; his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker all dropped around 250 rpm, the curveball was down 322 rpm, and the slider lost 205 rpm. And the dips have continued in 2022, with his cutter and curveball both down around 400 rpm compared to pre-memo, the four-seamer is currently down 368 rpm, and the slider is down 272 rpm. The only one of his pitches that hasn’t dropped more spin in 2022 is the sinker but that’s only because it’s simply been dropped.

Can you pick out about when the memo hit?

With six wins and a 3.22 ERA (3.45 FIP), it’s hard to say that this new spin-less version of Buehler has been a “bad” m pitcher. But for fantasy purposes, a 20.0% K% and 1.24 WHIP are more than a little concerning for someone who was drafted as a top-five pitcher in 2022, with many believing this could be the season that he would ascend into the very top tier.

The large increase in WHIP (0.97 WHIP from 2020-2021) is being driven by a lot more hits, as his 6.1% BB% is right in line with previous results. And him seeming more hittable makes more sense when looking at the drops in the overall whiffery that is behind a 20% K% in 2022 that is down from 26% in 2021 and 29.1% from 2019-2020.

Buehler’s 11.9% SwStr% this season is actually up from an 11.6% SwStr% in 2021 and isn’t that far removed from 12.3% and 12.1% in his respective 2020 and 2019 seasons. But while the SwStr% for his slider and curveball is up in 2022 compared to pre-memo, the swing-and-miss results for his four-seam and cut fastballs have dropped off substantially.

The cutter (18.0% usage in 2022) has dropped from a 16.7% SwStr% and 30.9% Whiff% prior to the memo, to a 14.5% SwStr% and 26.2% Whiff% in 2022. But it’s the four-seamer wearing the real crown of decreased whiffery for Buehler; a 12.0% SwStr% dropped to 6.7% post-memo and is down another point to a 5.7% SwStr% (or, the same as Kyle Hendricks) this season, while a 24.4% Whiff% dropped to 16.2% last year, and is down again to a 13.5% Whiff% (or, less than Michael Pineda) in 2022. 

Batters aren’t just making more contact with Buehler’s four-seamer, they’re doing damage, posting a .642 SLG (.690 xSLG) and .483 wOBAcon (.469 xwOBAcon) against it in 2022, up from a .366 SLG (.423 xSLG) and .327 wOBAcon (.387 xwOBAcon) in 2021. Considering those results, it makes a lot of sense that his four-seam usage continues to drop, decreasing from 53% usage in 2019-20 and 50% pre-memo, to 41.4% post-memo and 32.5% usage so far in 2022.

My sweet Dylan Bundy claimed the other platinum five-pack, with the average spin on all five of his pitches dropping significantly in 2021, and again in 2022 – except for a curveball that has simply been dropped. His four-seamer (36.8% usage) is averaging 89.1 mph in 2022, after sitting 91.5 mph pre-memo, and 89.7 mph post-memo. And the whiffs have followed suit – a 10.4% SwStr% dropped to 7.7% post-memo and is at 7.9% in 2022, while a 21.4% Whiff% dropped to 16.5% and again to 14.4% so far in 2022.

Bundy’s best pitch has always been his slider, though, and it’s been getting as many whiffs as ever in 2022, after initially dropping way off following our memo line of demarcation. Bundy’s slider dropped from an 18.7 SwStr% and 37.8% Whiff% pre-memo to an 11.4% SwStr% and 32.7% Whiff% post-memo but have rebounded way back in 2022, posting a 24.0% SwStr% and 45.5% Whiff%.

Looking at the whole group again, there is a segment of pitchers who initially felt a spin-squeeze in 2021 but have gained some of it back in 2022. And when comparing the 539 qualified pitches between the pre-memo period in 2021 and the first part of 2022, there are 29 pitches that have gained at least 100 rpm.

But there are still 136 pitches that have lost at least 100 rpm in 2022 compared to prior June 3 of 2021. And of those, 78 pitchers had one pitch make the list, 26 pitchers made it twice, eight were there in triplicate, and three made it four.

 

After showing across-the-board velocity drops post-memo, Madison Bumgarner in 2022 has mostly regained what heat was lost in 2021. But not when it comes to spinning it. Compared to pre-memo, Bumgarner’s four-seamer is down 343 rpm, the cutter is down 334 rpm, and his curveball is down 412 rpm. And while his four-seamer is actually getting more whiffs, increasing to an 8.9% SwStr% and 25.6% Whiff% from a 7.8% SwStr% and 18.3% Whiff%, the curveball and cutter haven’t been nearly as fortunate.

Bumgarner’s cutter has dropped from a 12.5% SwStr% and 22.7% Whiff% to an 8.7% SwStr% and 15.6% Whiff% but the curveball has been the biggest whiff loser. It has just a 7.3% SwStr% that is down from a 15.3% SwStr% pre-memo, while a 19.0% Whiff% is down from 33.3%. Given the extreme drop in whiffs that is backing his paltry 16.4% K%, trusting that Bumgarner’s current 3.31 ERA (4.93 FIP, 4.72 xFIP) will continue, seems to be a very dicey proposition.

Basically begging to be labeled a “crafty lefty”, Tyler Anderson is a great example of less spin not equaling worse overall results, as 67% of the time he throws three fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) that are a combined 592 rpm lower than pre-memo. Batters have done significantly more damage against each, posting a .452 SLG (up from .358 SLG) against the cutter, a .614 SLG (up from .448 SLG) against the four-seamer, and a .619 SLG (up from a .278 SLG) against the sinker. And while whiff rates have only decreased slightly against the cutter, the four-seam and sinker have both dropped around four points on SwStr%, and a respective 7.4 and 9.4 points on Whiff%.

Ok, so all of that sounds fairly awful. So, how to square that with how excellent Anderson has been in his first year as a Dodger, currently running a 2.90 ERA (3.27 FIP), 1.01 WHIP, 24.2% K%, and 14.8% SwStr% that are all career bests? For one, his seam-shifted cutter still induces a lot of soft contact, even if batters are also doing more damage against it. And the results by Run Value are well above-average, with the cutter producing a -1.1 RV per 100 pitches.

But it’s the new-and-improved changeup that’s helping Mr. Anderson unlock a new level of the strikeout matrix, with the pitch garnering 26.4% SwStr% that is up from 15.9%, and a 44.9% Whiff% that’s up from 28.7%. The shape is slightly different, averaging 1.7 mph less than in 2021 and getting 5.6 inches more vertical break, while fading down to his glove-side against lefties (against whom it is almost exclusively used), contrasting with his cutter that works in.

But when he’s using it is what really demonstrates how much he believes in the changeup as a strikeout weapon, with it posting a 30.8% PutAway% that is up from 12.4% in 2021. And why shouldn’t he? There are 80 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 changeups in 2022; Anderson ranks 3rd in SwStr%, 7th in Whiff%, 7th in SLG%, 3rd in wOBA, and 4th in xwOBA.

That’s nasty.

We’ve seen how things are spinning less, so let’s now take a wider look at which of them have also lost a bucket of whiffs. Of our previously qualified 136 pitches, 76 have dropped at least two points in SwStr% and/or four points in Whiff%.

Logan Webb has lost spin all over his mix but it’s his slider that has really suffered in the whiffs department, after running a 23.0% SwStr% and 56.6% Whiff% pre-memo and a 21.8% SwStr% and 43.7% Whiff% post-memo that were down from before but still excellent. But the dips have cratered even more in 2022, with Webb’s slider posting just an 11.2% SwStr% and 27.2% Whiff%. If you’re looking for the culprit behind a 20.0% K% that is down from 26.5% in 2021, the slider is your perp.

Jesús Luzardo was trying for a 2022 renaissance prior to hitting the IL but his shiny 34.5% K% over 29 IP (up 12 points from 2021) was being backed by a 13.7% SwStr% that had only risen a half-point from the prior season. That bump would be a lot higher (and make his K% more trustworthy) if his curveball whiff rates were anywhere similar to what they’d been pre-memo, when it ran an outrageous 31.1% SwStr% and 57.1% Whiff%. But alas, it wasn’t to be in 2022; Luzardo’s curveball has a 16.7% SwStr% and 39.8% Whiff%, dropping even further in 2022 than it did post-memo in 2021.