Sir Mike Podhorzer Asked for Questions: Here are a Few Answers

A couple of weeks back, Mike asked for possible topic ideas. Today, I’m going to go through some topics that can be quickly answered or why they may be too massive to take on. Some reasonable questions were asked that deserve their own article so don’t fret if it wasn’t answered. Also, let me know which of these topics can be expanded and how?

 

Rock Lobster: Which stats are the most volatile week to week in h2h leagues? I assume something like Ws fluctuates more from week to week than SBs, but by how much? Could knowing this information lead to any insights regarding roster construction in h2h leagues? Or is it just noise?

This is a huge undertaking. Tanner Bell compiled weekly stats for a few studies in our book, and those took months. It’s something that could be done again but what are the standard points systems used? Just the standards at ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS? Any others? It’s doable but once jumping in, I think it’ll be a one-time study so everything desired needs to be in place before it begins.

mrdog61: I would like some sort of “explainer” series on how guys with suspect x-stats continue to be solid-to-plus fantasy players. Off the top of my head, thinking of Eduardo Escobar on the position player end and pitchers such as Hendricks (although he has been covered a lot). Maybe what skill (or luck!) accounts for the discrepancy and how long we fantasy players can expect it to last. Thanks! I’ll hang up and listen.

CC AFC: Yo, this. I notice Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado consistently finishing with mediocre exit velocity numbers but still being elite hitters. To a lesser extent Trout doesn’t destroy the ball the way you’d think for someone who’s so good. What’s up with that? I’d think there was luck in the results, but guys like those have been so consistently good for so long there seems to be something going on.

The players listed are for sure some of the anomalies. There will always be some players who don’t meet expectations, but each one needs to examined individually.

Arenado plays in Coors and from some research I’ve done, he should hit like Kris Bryant or Jose Abreu if he goes to another park. He not close to being elite.

With Bryant and now Arenado, they are good hitters with a good eye, but both are far from elite. They’re top-30 to top-40 hitters. They’re likely to be the best bat on a team, just not to top handful. I’m someone(s) in the comments will disagree.

With pitchers, 99% of the StatCast measures can be ignored. Hendricks throws strikes. His fastball misses (7% SwStr%) just enough bats and generates some groundballs (51% GB%) to be average. His non-fastballs are above average and he can throw them for strikes. The combination of traits makes him an above-average pitcher.

 

Spa City: Assuming we get (e.g.) a 100 game season (or an 80 game, or 50 game, etc)… How would the game accommodate that? Would the Innings Pitched limit change? If not, wouldn’t smart owners load up on as many pitchers as possible to squeeze as many IP in as possible? That is not the kind of game I would want to play.

What a nightmare if games start up and then stop with inning caps or minimums. While prorating makes the most sense if the season plays out as planned. If it starts and stops, the thresholds could be a mess. I’m not sure of the answer but teams need to find a way to address it.

 

CamdenWarehouse: I’d love to see some sim league content, like Strat or APBA

karasz816: Would really enjoy everyone taking a team on OOTP as the owner and doing a regular season together.

The key would be for Rotographs to find someone who is knowledgable about the leagues to write about them. If any of the current writers started covering them, we would just be talking out of our ass.

 

Winged_Hussar: I’d like to see content on 2021 season. Projecting roster changes and player growth/decline. I want to make best adjustments to my keeper rosters and park it. Some of my keeper leagues have drafted and some have offseason trading. So, I can make some moves. Planning for a draft or auction is no concern for me anymore. Hopefully bizarro world returns to normal by then.

For me, I’ll worry about 2021 once the 2020 season is officially over. It’ll give me something to over during the second offseason.

 

Three ideas, mostly useful for daily leagues, 1) how much is each bench spot worth? ie each available bench spot allows you to stream or buy lottery tickets that you quickly move on from 2) when generating dollar values, how do you correctly handle playing time? (dependent on bench spots as well) some players are highly valuable when they start (platoons, rookies and injured players arriving later in the year). for instance Jose Martinez might not have a full season’s worth of stats worth more than Brandon Belt, but he (might be) more valuable when he starts. 3) how much does strength of schedule really matter? does it matter more for pitching than hitting, and is it better to start against a bad team or be benched against a great team? which stats are you looking at to determine a good/bad team? Thanks!

1 and 2. These are loaded questions and they’ll likely never be known but I may try to step through them at a later date. One of the biggest obstacles is that the value will vary a ton depending on each little league setting like IP and PA limits, roster move limits, bench slots, active slots, stats collected, etc.

When I used to play in daily lineup leagues, I didn’t go for an exact value but found the players who added the most value when on my bench. To find them, I picked my normal lineup and then determined how much each bench spot could add (e.g. a platoon bat adds X stats or relief pitcher adds X points over a starter). In that league, the best values were hitters on the strong side of a platoon and relievers with starter qualifications. Once I knew which players added value, I targetted them.

3. This research used to be a pain in the butt, but DFS projections make these decisions irrelevant. With different season-long and DFS scoring systems being different, a person will need to find (or convert) the DFS projection to the season-long values. Just use these converted values in daily lineup leagues. Even the most basic DFS projections take into account opposing team hitters and pitchers, ballpark, platoons, etc. Here at FanGraphs we offer SaberSim’s DFS values free of charge.

 

123jvd: Given the truncated season (hopefully), how about some features on particularly streaky players who may have an outsize role with fewer games? Scheduling may drive that a bit, but it’d be interesting. Who is particularly hot when the weather warms up? Who fades as the season goes on? Is there any compelling evidence that these are trends and not a random occurrence?

Even if a player can be determined to be streaky (usually hitters who only get value from HRs), it’s impossible to know when are those streaks going to happen? For me, I just use Razzball’s weekly projections which take into account the quality of opposition a hitter may face in the upcoming week. Beyond that, nothing more can be done.

 

Travis L: I’d love to see more technical content. Are there basic simulators that pro-am fantasy players can run somewhere? Maybe an evaluation of SP streaming — what kind of results can I expect if I take certain approaches to streaming? (EG, guy with > 9K/9 and <4BB/9 against a bottom 10 offense — how many innings and stats would that get me?)

The biggest issue with streaming and these simulators is guessing the Friday to Sunday starters for teams and hoping there isn’t a rainout. Again, nothing beats Razzball’s weekly projections for this analysis.

 

markjd: Has there been an article about stadium changes and their effect on HRs and pitchers? Like i know the new dome in texas but also fence changes and their potential effects. And if there is already an article like that can you link it?

There will be a ton of information on the various parks once everyone knows who is playing where. Dan has been looking at how the spring training parks will play.

 

Chris: I play in 4 roto leagues, each one with a different variation of categories along with some of the standard ones: for example, one league uses Slugging and OBP, another uses OPS and Runs Produced (R + RBI – HR), and so on. Each year I run projections for each league using several different sets of projections through the auction calculators provided by the source of the projections. I happen to use the ATC projections with the Rotographs Auction Calculator, BaseballHQ’s Custom Draft Guide, and Baseball Prospectus’s ‘The AX.’

Obviously the different projections make a difference when it comes to what to what value each calculator puts out. But as I compare valuations for each player in each league format with each set of projections, I have also noticed that the formulas within each calculator can make as much or more of a difference. One calculator may favor stolen bases, another relief pitchers over starters or ratio stats over counting stats, and still another may inflate top dollar players but devalue low dollar players.

While I can look at each projection and decide which one I agree with most, the calculators are mostly black boxes, with some amount of ‘customization’ possible depending on the site to try to account for such factors as stars and scrubs vs spread the risk strategy or position scarcity. This is frustrating as I go through the data and try to decide what my maximum bids will be at the auctions by trying to compare the values that come from each system.

I understand that there is no perfect way to turn a projection into a value, but would love to get a better understanding of how the black boxes work and/or how I could somehow try to ‘normalize’ the values to make them more understandable.

Chris, the simple answer is to create the valuations yourself … there is plenty of time. With the previous season standings, you can specific Standing Gain Points for each league (preferred method because it takes the individual league’s quirks). If you didn’t keep last year’s standings, use a z-score projection method to create valuations. Both methods are stepped through in The Process, but can be pieced together across the interwebs if you want to save a few bucks.

 

Groundout: I’ve been curious about fantasy valuation of fringe-level players, specifically starting pitchers. Plugging in full-year stats and z-scores for the Chris Bassitts and Brad Kellers of the world isn’t very useful, because you’re never, ever going to use them against the Astros or Yankees in a normal-size league. Do certain players gain value if you only use the best 75% of their matchups? Is matchup quality predictable enough for this to be actionable?

I think computing this is probably beyond my powers, so I’m appealing to the pro here. 🙂

It sucks to do but Tanner Bell did it for two seasons (2017 and 2018) for The Process. On a week-to-week basis, lots of normally unrosterable pitchers have value. Getting these pitchers cheap is important since they can’t be used every week. Here is what I do.

1. Get a week ahead. I use RotoWire’s projected starters to see who may have a favorable match in two weeks (they list the 14-day rotation for each team). I try to buy them cheap and I usually use next week’s matchup for a tie-breaker for adding pitchers for the upcoming week. I know that rotations can change but I’m fine gambling.

2. Get this week’s projected starters and see if anyone should be targeted. I’ll use several sources to find targets, but again, I rely a lot on the RazzBall projections. I set a weekly churn limited (~2% of total FAAB) and will spend up to that limit for these arms. I’m not overpaying and wasting my budget for a one week option.

3. If I have time, I take a look at the weather for the week, especially early in the season. I’m not wanting to spend for a good matchup and it gets rain or snowed out.