Texas Red Bulls: Fighting for the 2023 Playoffs

In our last update, I reviewed the 2022 playoffs and discussed our World Series win! As we started the 2023 season, I identified starting pitching as the premium need and put up a poll of three starters for us to choose from: 2019 Jack Flaherty, 1987 Bret Saberhagen, and 2007 Ian Snell. I wasn’t terribly surprised by the fact that Flaherty steamrolled with 45% of the vote, but I made an executive decision to keep both him and the last place finisher of the poll, Snell. He only got 20% of the vote, but he was just so cheap at 650 Perfect Points that I felt he was worth holding.

WHERE WE STAND

As of this writing, it’s August 15th, 2023 and our Red Bulls are 65-54, sitting 4.5 games back of the Boston Kkroncs (not a typo) and holding the second Wild Card. It’s been an up and down season. We started 13-16 in April (with 2 games in March) and then ran up an 18-9 record in May, but we’re just 32-29 since with a .560 win percentage in June, .458 in July, and .643 thus far in August (9-5).

Pitching and power are carrying the squad:

THE NEWCOMERS

Since joining the staff, Flaherty and Snell both have 18 starts and have been integral parts of a really strong rotations (that includes reigning Cy Young winner Noah Syndergaard). Flaherty has a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 123 innings (and 6-6 record). He’s third in the league in ERA behind another team’s Thor (2.45) and Dinelson Lamet (2.72). He’s going to need a strong finish to give us a second straight Cy Young, but he’s been awesome so good job with that vote!

I kept Snell on board despite the fact that he finished last in vote because he was dirt cheap and I didn’t see any reason to sell him back. I don’t regret the decision. He has a 3.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 111.7 innings of work. His 1.4 HR/9 rate is keeping from huge numbers, but the bulk of that is three 3-HR games. He has just a 0.4 HR/9 in his last 46 innings (7 starts).

Speaking of our Thor, he’s put up a 3.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 168 innings.

One newcomer I didn’t mention in the last piece is that Ruben Sierra has been called up. He was a holdover from when I added outfielders a while back, but there truly wasn’t a spot for him last year. Jerry Mumphrey got off to a horrific start with a .544 OPS through April so I brought Sierra up and moved Mumphrey to a reserve role.

Sierra is 4th on the team in wRC+ at 109 with a .260/.296/.491 line and 13 HR in 307 PA. Power is carrying several players on the team so Sierra is fitting right in. Mumphrey has rebounded with strong wRC+ totals since that rough April: 119, 126, 182, and 146. The last two have been team bests in July and August.

THE ISSUES

There are three players struggling mightily at this point with 80 and below wRC+ totals: Max Kepler (80), Frank White (68), and Matt Williams (63). Kepler (120 wRC+, 4.2 WAR) and Williams (109, 2.5) were both solid parts of the team last year (Kepler was downright awesome) so I’m reluctant to dump them, especially as both are playing good defense at premium positions (RF and 3B, respectively). White’s defense last season was SO good that he put up a 5.9 WAR season despite a 96 wRC+.

It’s once again carrying his season and has him at 1.6 WAR despite the awful wRC+ output. I’ve moved him way down the lineup, but I’m wondering if it’s time to move on. Brandon Lowe has been a super utility for us in both the infield and outfield and he’s starting to get more of White’s time at 2B, but if we move on, it’ll be for a new acquisition and I’ll keep Lowe in his current role.

I’m not going to buy a bunch of guys yet, especially as we head into the weekend, but here’s a group of guys we could look to acquire in place of White if we decide to make a move:

• Ozzie Albies – 2020 – 92 OVR | great SPD, solid DEF, big GAP PWR, crushes vL
• Craig Biggio – 1997 – 91 OVR | elite SPD & DEF, capable hitting vL & vR
• DJ LeMahieu – 2020 – 86 OVR | really solid across the board, can play multiple spots, best vL
• Ian Kinsler – 2011 – 84 OVR | big PWR, strong AVOID Ks and EYE, good SPD
• Brian Dozier – 2017 – 81 OVR | PWR, SPD, capable DEF
• Rex Hudler – 1996 – 81 OVR | good CON/PWR, elite SPD, and 4 pos. (2B, 1B, LF, CF)

We could also get an elite fielding SS and shift Carlos Correa to 2B. Maybe like an Omar Vizquel, flashback Brandon Crawford, Vern Stephens, or Woodie Held. Let me know what you think in the comments!

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So as I wrap this up, we’ve got a month and a half left in the regular season with a good chance to make the playoffs including a real chance to take the division. We have six more games against the division-leading Kkroncs, including a three-game set that starts about 20 minutes after I post this. The team is pretty well set outside of possibly a chance at 2B and maybe a reliever upgrade (we only have one lefty and three guys have a 4.67 ERA or higher). I’d probably handle the RP issue on my own tonight or tomorrow to prepare for the playoffs, but I’m definitely interested in your thoughts about the 2B situation.

We have a 20,090 Perfect Point bankroll and we could sell white for about 2,500 after tax so I was thinking of a 6,000-7,000 point budget for the 2B and a couple grand on a reliever upgrade.

Record: 65-54

Bankroll: 20,090 points

Need(s): 2B, RP