Simple 2015 Pitcher Rankings

Well, I will take one for the Rotographs team and publish our first rankings to get torn part. I am going with the simplest of all pitcher rankings …. strikeouts minus walks. Basically, how much easily measurable talent does a pitcher have. Can the pitcher strikeout hitters? Does he not walk many? Can he keep pitching for an entire season? Just by running this simple formula and creating a graph of the rankings, some initial thoughts can be formulated for the 2015 draft/auction season.

For the rankings, I used our Steamer projections. These numbers can be re-run at a later date with other projections for more clarity. The entire list is available here. In addition to the list, I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.

Name	Team	K-BB	Age	IP	GS	G	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9
Clayton Kershaw	LAN	181	27	201	32	32	226	45	10.1	2.0
Chris Sale	CHA	171	26	192	30	30	220	49	10.3	2.3
Max Scherzer	FA	166	30	189	32	32	219	53	10.4	2.5
Yu Darvish	TEX	155	28	192	30	30	224	69	10.5	3.2
Felix Hernandez	SEA	155	29	192	30	30	197	42	9.3	2.0
Madison Bumgarner	SFN	153	25	201	32	32	203	51	9.1	2.3
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	152	26	182	29	29	198	46	9.8	2.3
Yusmeiro Petit	SFN	150	30	208	30	65	198	48	8.6	2.1
Corey Kluber	CLE	149	29	192	30	30	197	48	9.2	2.2
David Price	DET	142	29	192	30	30	179	37	8.4	1.7
Matt Harvey	NYN	136	26	173	27	27	185	49	9.7	2.6
Zack Greinke	LAN	136	31	192	31	31	181	45	8.5	2.1
Masahiro Tanaka	NYA	134	26	192	31	31	171	38	8.0	1.8
Cole Hamels	PHI	129	31	182	29	29	177	48	8.7	2.4
Jon Lester	FA	128	31	195	32	32	180	52	8.3	2.4
James Shields	FA	125	33	201	32	32	175	49	7.8	2.2
Johnny Cueto	CIN	125	29	182	29	29	175	49	8.6	2.4
Phil Hughes	MIN	125	29	192	30	30	160	35	7.5	1.6
Adam Wainwright	SLN	123	33	201	32	32	167	44	7.5	2.0
Ian Kennedy	SDN	122	30	192	30	30	186	64	8.7	3.0
Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	120	29	182	30	30	155	35	7.7	1.7
Jose Fernandez	MIA	120	22	144	23	23	166	46	10.4	2.9
Jeff Samardzija	OAK	118	30	192	30	30	171	52	8.0	2.5
Danny Salazar	CLE	118	25	173	29	29	178	59	9.3	3.1
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	117	34	192	31	31	155	38	7.3	1.8
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAN	116	28	182	31	31	160	45	7.9	2.2
Mike Fiers	MIL	115	30	163	29	29	160	45	8.8	2.5
Marcus Stroman	TOR	115	24	192	31	31	168	53	7.9	2.5
Collin McHugh	HOU	112	28	192	31	31	170	58	8.0	2.7
Garrett Richards	LAA	110	27	192	30	30	174	63	8.2	3.0

Thoughts

• Yusmeiro Petit isn’t the 8th overall pitcher, he has 35 RP and 30 starts in his projection which is not going to happen. Using the same K/9 and BB/9, removing 35 IP from his total, he came in with a value of 125 which is even with Shields, Cueto and Hughes. This a perfect case of the rankings and previous thoughts being off. Even though I like him as a starter, he doesn’t seem to belong among these pitchers.

In 2014 as a starter, his K/9 was 9.8 and he had a 1.5 BB/9. His projections are not too far off these values. He did struggle as a starter with a 5.03 ERA caused by a HR/9 (1.5) equal to his BB/9.  I want to see the love he gets from other projection systems before I jump all in.

• I will take the under on the innings pitched by Jose Fernandez. He is not supposed to be back until the All-Star break.

• Danny Salazar …. how you burnt me in 2014. OK, does he deserve this high ranking again? The 2014 first half was terrible. 5.53 ERA. 3.8 BB/9. 1.8 HR/9. In the second half his number were: 3.50 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9. From what I see here and my expected expectations of others (which will be very low), I think he may have some hidden value.

• Mike Fiers is another pitcher sticking out at the top of the list (#27) which I didn’t expect. I just don’t trust a pitcher with 223 total MLB innings and a 89 mph fastball. Maybe I should a little more.

• Lance Lynn is ranked higher than Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander. I have zero faith in Sabathia and Lincecum righting their careers. They seem done. I am not 100% sure Lee and Verlander are destined to end up so low since they have sucked for less amount of time. I will be monitoring their spring training starts to see if their velocities (and then the strikeouts) come back up.

• The largest noticeable difference between some pitchers (difference in K-BB values):

Kershaw to Sale (10)

Sale to Scherzer (5)

Scherzer to Darvish (10)

Kluber to Price (6)

Price t Harvey (6)

Tananka to Hamels (5)

From then on, the difference is only zero, one or two between pitchers.