Shutting Down Rookie Pitchers

As the season progresses, teams will be looking to sit rookie pitchers to prevent injuries. Here is a look at the work loads of previous rookie pitchers and what to expect from the current crop of good rookie pitchers.

Teams have always worried about injuring the arms of young pitchers and this worry has expanded after the Verducci Effect was published. Some studies have shown the negative effects of over throwing young pitchers to be minimal, but that has not stopped teams from shutting down their young arms, especially rookies.

Here is a list of the top 3 rookie pitchers (removed K-Dice from 2007 data because he was not a real rookie) in IP from each of the past 4 completed seasons:

Name	GS	IP	Year
Matusz	32	175	2010
Niese	30	173	2010
Davis	29	168	2010
Hiemann	30	180	2009
Cahill	32	178	2009
Romero	29	178	2009
Blackburn	33	193	2008
G. Smith	32	190	2008
J. Jurrjens	31	188	2008
Guthrie	26	175	2007
Chico	31	167	2007
Bannister	27	165	2007
Average	30.2	177.5

The average number of IP from these top throwing rookies is 178 IP with the top value being 193 IP (Nick Blackburn in 2008). The average number of starts is 30 with the highest number being 33 (also Nick Blackburn). Using these numbers as a general rule, I would use 180 IP and 30 GS as a top limit for projecting GS and IP for rookie pitchers this season.

Here is a look at a few of the top rookie pitchers this season and a projected number of GS for the rest of the season:

The GS (ROS) is based on using subtracting 30 GS from the number of GS they have so far this season. GS (ROS based on IP) is found by taking 180 IP subtracting the IP pitched so far and then dividing by the pitcher’s IP/GS.

Name	GS (so far)	GS (ROS)	IP (so far)	IP/GS	GS (ROS based on IP)
Pineda	18	12	113	6.3	10.3
Britten	18	12	104	5.8	12.7
Ogando	17	13	104	6.1	12.0
Hellickson	16	14	103	6.4	11.6

Owners of these players may need to look at finding possible substitutes for these pitchers once they are shut down. If the league is not a keeper league, just drop the player when the team is done starting them and find a starter that will be facing expanded/water downed September rosters.

Owners of these pitchers in keeper leagues, may need to trade them off before the deadline if their team looks to have a chance of winning. This is especially true in H2H keeper leagues. One or more of these rookie pitchers may have helped the owner get to the playoffs. If the rookie is not available in the playoffs, the owner only has himself to blame for not trading him off earlier for a pitcher that may go the entire season.