Should You Be Gunning For Gunnar (Henderson)?

It’s a top prospect promotion party! Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles’ top prospect and fifth overall prospect, was called up from Triple-A yesterday, getting the start at third base, where he could see most of his starts. He should remain in the starting lineup the rest of the season, regardless of how he performs, but you never know with the Orioles. So let’s follow the same format as I did yesterday and discuss the pros and cons of his fantasy potential.

Pros

• Increasing home run power! While his HR/FB rate has dropped since his professional peak at Single-A last year, it has risen from 13.2% at High-A last season, to 17.8% at Double-A this year, to 20.8% at Triple-A. You gotta love to see a rising HR/FB rate as he climbs the ladder especially considering his power grades aren’t super exciting (40/55 Game & 50/55 Raw Power).
• Steals too! Despite owning just a 50/40 Speed grade, he has not only been a willing basestealer, but also quite a successful one. He swiped 22 bases in the minors this year and 16 last year. Over his minor league career, he has stolen 40 bases and has been caught just seven times, for a sweet 85% success rate. A high success rate provides optimism that he’ll continue running in the Majors. The Orioles are clearly willing to run, so the team won’t be giving him the red light.
• He’s been a BABIP machine most of the time. He has never posted a BABIP below .313 in the minors, and is coming off a .350 mark at Double-A and .374 mark at Triple-A. He seems to have a fairly ordinary batted ball profile, but he has posted a better than average IFFB%. It’s not really obvious how he has been able to maintain the high BABIP, so I’m unsure how sustainable an inflated mark is in the Majors. For now, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt given his consistency.
• He owns excellent plate patience, walking at a double digit clip at every stop since High-A last year. He even walked at an absurd 19.75 rate at Double-A this year! More walks = more runs scored and more opportunities to steal bases. OBP leaguers should be drooling.

Cons

• He stuck out often last year, but improved his strikeout rate significantly in Double-A this year. Unfortunately, he gave up much of those gains when he moved up to Triple-A. His 26.4% strikeout rate at Triple-A is far from alarming and perfectly acceptable, but the massive jump from Double-A makes me cautious about his strikeout rate in the Majors this year.
• His FB% has really bounced around, making it difficult to predict where he’ll end up in the Majors, and ultimately his home run potential. He posted just a 31.4% FB% at Triple-A, and while the higher GB% is good for his BABIP and batting average, it caps his home run upside.
• Although his HR/FB rate jumped above 20% at Triple-A, his ISO actually declined from Double-A to a good-but-not-great mark. Some of that is a result of the lower FB%.
• As a left-handed hitter, there’s always a question of how well he’ll be able to hit same-handed pitchers. Well so far, history suggests that he won’t be able to hit them nearly as well as right-handed pitchers. Let’s look at the below tables. You can see that he has performed significantly better against right-handed pitchers. He has hit doubles and home runs much more frequently, walked more, struck out less, and posted a far higher OPS. His left-handed performance looks weak enough to potentially require a platoon partner.
  2021 Pitcher Handedness Splits

  	AB/2B	AB/HR	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
  2021	14.6	22.7	12.0%	31.0%	0.259	0.350	0.479	0.829
  vs RHP	12.2	20.9	11.8%	28.2%	0.283	0.371	0.522	0.893
  vs LHP	26.5	35.3	13.0%	38.2%	0.189	0.293	0.349	0.642

  2022 Pitcher Handedness Splits

  	AB/2B	AB/HR	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
  2022	17.0	21.4	15.7%	23.1%	0.297	0.416	0.531	0.946
  vs RHP	16.8	16.8	17.2%	18.8%	0.329	0.449	0.594	1.043
  vs LHP	17.3	60.5	12.0%	33.8%	0.223	0.331	0.380	0.711

  2021-2022 Pitcher Handedness Splits

  	AB/2B	AB/HR	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
  2021-2022	15.7	22.1	13.9%	26.9%	0.278	0.384	0.505	0.889
  vs RHP	14.1	18.7	14.6%	23.4%	0.306	0.411	0.558	0.969
  vs LHP	20.6	45.4	12.5%	35.8%	0.207	0.313	0.366	0.679

  Overall, I think Henderson looks like a pretty solid prospect, with both power and speed, and a history of strong walk rates. But neither his power or speed are elite and he’s at real risk of losing at-bats against left-handers, or hurting your batting average if he starts against them. Certainly pick him up in 15-team mixed and deeper leagues. I would take a chance in shallower formats, but would not expect him to be a difference maker. I prefer Corbin Carroll’s fantasy upside this year.