Shortstop Tiers: May
Always a shallow position for fantasy owners, shortstop is positively a wasteland so far in 2015. It would almost be impossible for shortstop to collectively be this bad going forward, but there are so few bankable assets at the position. If it were March again, I’d tell you just to punt the position.
Tier One: The Guy Who Doesn’t Play Shortstop
Hanley Ramirez is the lone bright spot at the position, and he obviously no longer plays there. When he loses shortstop eligibility next year, there really may be no good options. But Hanley has been an excellent option this year as his production in April ranked fourth among all hitters according to the ol’ Zach Sanders z-score method.
Entering Sunday’s action, Hanley had ten home runs and a ridiculous 45.5 percent home run per fly ball rate. Perhaps the strangest thing about his HR/FB rate is how it’s propping up his batting average. His batting average on balls in play is just .224, but he’s hitting .281 because the 10 home runs were hits that weren’t “balls in play.” So yes, his BABIP will come around, but it’s actually unlikely to help his batting average as much as it might seem given fewer balls will be leaving the yard.
As for whether you should sell Hanley, you absolutely should if someone is willing to pay for his production to date. People reading this have league mates of wildly varying intelligence levels, so forgive me if the people you play with are sharp. But if people in your league are a little easier to deal with, I’d personally take anyone I thought was a top 20 hitter in exchange for Hanley. Running the ZiPS ROS projections through the z-score method ranks Hanley as the 39th best hitter from here on out (with no positional adjustment being made). A big part of that is a fairly low innings projection due to Hanley’s injury history, and that’s obviously a concern in addition to his current pace being unsustainable.
Tier Two: Guys Who Aren’t Hitting But Should Be
Desmond’s got some of the normal “luck” issues you might see in small samples. His line drive rate is very low, even for him, and he’s hitting way too many groundballs. Always one for a high BABIP, Desmond hasn’t had that benefit so far. As for his power, his HR/FB rate is less than half his career average, and all the groundballs means he’s hitting fewer fly balls as well. The good news is that his spike in strikeout rate from last year has corrected, and Desmond should correct as well when his fortune improves.
As for Tulo, he’s managed to stay on the field for a month, which is the most important thing. But his production has been lackluster. Starting with the good news, his ISO is still over .200 and close to his career average despte having just two home runs. He thankfully has 12 doubles, and presumably a few more of those will leave the yard soon. He’s also hitting for average with a high line drive rate and BABIP as we’re accustomed to.
The problem is his plate discipline. His swing percentage is up seven percent from where it was last year and six percent over his career average. He’s also making a little less contact, so his strikeout rate is close to 20 percent when he’s normally closer to 15 percent. But the bigger problem is that he has only drawn two walks. Given the dearth of offensive production at his position, a continuation of the line drives and a few more home runs would be good enough. But to jump back into the top tier he’s got to get his plate discipline in order.
Tier Three: It Gets Ugly Quickly
Starlin Castro
Marcus Semien
Jean Segura
Alcides Escobar
Elvis Andrus
Jhonny Peralta
Jose Reyes
If you haven’t noticed, we’re still in the top ten here. Castro leads the group because he can give you something in each category and also because his ZiPS ROS projection looks pretty good. The same goes for Semien with the possible exception of batting average. ZiPS has him reaching double digit home runs and steals from here on out with at least 60 runs and RBI each. His strikeout rate has been much better earlier in the season, so he might not even hurt you in batting average if he keeps the gains he has made in that regard.
After that you’ve got the trio of Segura, Escobar, and Andrus who are here simply because they have a bankable skill. They’re all likely good for at least 20 more steals with at least an above average batting average. Then we’ve got old man Peralta who is a lesser version of a Castro/Semien type who is also missing speed. And then finally we have Reyes who is already hurt and could easily be injured again if/when he returns to the lineup.
Tier Four: Three Old Guys and Two Young Guys
Wilmer Flores
Xander Bogaerts
Alexei Ramirez
Erick Aybar
Jimmy Rollins
I discussed Flores last week, primarily in comparison to Zack Cozart. The basic jist of the post was that we do not know yet what Flores can be, and we know exactly what Cozart is. In relation to Ramirez, Aybar, and Rollins, the comparison is similar, but we also have to consider the decline in production that could effect these three players that are older than Cozart. Essentially, Flores can go up, Cozart isn’t going anywhere, and the old guys can go down. So give me the upside, and the same goes for Bogaerts. I’m a little worried that Flores’ defense is going to cost him playing time, but I have to believe the Mets will give his bat a chance to develop.
Tier Five: Meh
Danny Santana
Chris Owings
Jose Ramirez
Everth Cabrera
Asdrubal Cabrera
Brad Miller
Adeiny Hechavarria
Andrelton Simmons
Zack Cozart
Brandon Crawford
Jed Lowrie
If you’d like to quibble about the ranking of the particular players within this tier, please spare me. I’ve simply ranked them in the order that they appear when you run the ZiPS ROS projections through the z-score method. There’s just not much to get excited about here.
I suppose we should address Hechavarria since he’s second among shortstops in production so far according to the z-score method. But there’s nothing on his player page to believe in. He’s riding a .365 BABIP to a good batting average, but he’ll fall back to the .260 range when that passes. He has two home runs, but he has a career HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. If he didn’t hit two more, I wouldn’t be totally shocked. His strikeout rate is what it always is, his walk rate is still very low, and he’s on pace to steal single digit bases just like he was projected to. His counting stats have been nice so far, but they’re also a product of his BABIP putting him on base more often because he’s still hitting at the bottom of the order. There’s nothing there.
Tier Six: Sure
Jonathan Villar
Andrew Romine
Christian Colon
Yunel Escobar
Mike Aviles
Jung-ho Kang
Nick Ahmed
Didi Gregorius
Jordy Mercer
Freddy Galvis
Alexi Amarista
Jose Iglesias
Marwin Gonzalez
Stephen Drew
I’ve got Villar and Romine at the top of this tier simply because they could be in line for a bit more playing time due to injuries in front of them, and they’ll at least give you speed if they play regularly.
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
Where would you rank Odubel Herrera? He’s SS qualified in Yahoo.
And in ESPN. And he’s been raking. I, too, wonder where Mr. Herrera would slot.
Thought about including him. Probably should have just thrown him in anyway.I’d have him top of tier five. Maybe not quite 20+ steal speed ROS, and his BABIP probably won’t hold.
oof. the position is sure fragile, isn’t?
Reyes might not even belong in the top shortstop category anymore, due to his inability to stay healthy. But, considering what’s actually out there…
Waiting patiently for the next waive to come: Seager, Lindor, and Correa.
It is sorely needed.
Who do you think will end up the best fantasy player out of the next waive?
Agreed with Brett T. Lindor is kind of like Andrus-lite.
Offensively it’s either Seager or Correa. I personally prefer Correa.
Brandon Crawford should be one tier up. Improved walk rate and ISO four years running with 5 HR in April. That HR/FB is unsustainable, but even if it drops to ~10% you’re looking at an RBI producer and moderate pop in a position with very little of both. But go ahead and take Brad Miller, Marcus Semien, and Zach Cozart ahead of Crawford.
I’d abslutely rather have Semien. But as I said in the post, ranking the guys within tier five was a crapshoot. If you like Crawford over Miller and Cozart, I won’t argue with you at all.
I prefer Semien to Crawford, but IMO Crawford ranks up in Tier 4, particularly in an OBP or points league where walks count. He’s drawing a lot of walks and hitting southpaws extremely well – good signs for continued future success.
Addison Russell?
I’m an idiot for leaving him out. Top of tier five. Like that he’ll likely provide some power and some speed but terrified of the batting average.
Thanks, thats about what I assumed. Definitely will have to make more contact and cut the K rate to be worth rostering.
Meh
Tulo is not going to be happy with the drop out of the 1st tier. He will try his hardest to move up so he will either be in the top tier or on the shelf. Despite disturbing April trends and that he is older and has more injuries behind, his track is worth way more than that. He has those amazing hot streaks in him.
BREAKING NEWS: Tulo to the 15-day DL (injured trying to climb a tier)
lol that is what I was getting at. 🙂
My main concern with Flores is how long he lasts as the starter. He has sat two straight days for Tejada and his defense has (predictably) been bad at short. The bat seems solid enough for fantasy, but the risk of him being pulled after 6 innings for a better defender or being pushed into a bench role is very real unless he manages to get a LITTLE better at defense.
I agree with your tier 5 sentiment that they are all pretty much the same. With Zobrist out I have been using Crawford. Not because I particularly like him, but he’s been the best player out of that tier over the last few weeks and plan on interchanging them out with whomever gets hot.
I am interested in your Aybar take though. He just got dropped and I could use an upgrade, but he has been awful so far this year. Is he just off to a slow start or is there something more troubling going on with him?
Low BABIP is obviously hurting, but his contact is down a but and he’s 0-for-2 trying to steal. I assume his average will come around to some degree (maybe .265 with a few more Ks), and he’ll likely run into 5+ home runs. But without the speed his value is in trouble. Maybe a bit early to panic there, but the speed is the key.
Thanks for the response. I guess I will roll with Crawford and hope the power remains legit for now since Aybar does look troubling with zero speed. Shame since I the Runs potential for him is so high if he can start to get on base in front of Trout, Albert and Calhoun.
The 2 days off was supposedly to clear his head. He still has sandy’s vot of confidence, if Terry’s is a little iffier. I don’t think he’s been predictably bad at s. Predictably, he doesn’t have great range, but he supposedly has decent hands and arm and can make the routine play, but he’s had bad yips. Last year he only made 4 errors in 50 starts at ss.
I said predictably because the biggest question mark surrounding him entering this year was if he could play Short well enough for his decent bat to keep him in the lineup. I do agree that I don’t think he has been completely benched, however I do think it is entirely possible that the Mets look to acquire a more steady defensive presence if he doesn’t start hitting better soon.
If I knew he was going to play everyday at Short the rest of the year, I would definitely own him and roll with him in my lineup. That just feels less and less likely the more he makes errors at short and shakier defensively he looks while also slumping a bit over the last couple weeks with the bat. I want to like Flores more, but his uncertain future leads me to think he is more of a fit with the other tier 5 guys which are all basically “close your eyes and hope for the best” outside of Brandon Crawford.
kozma 4 life
Where do you put a healthy JJ Hardy?
Back on the DL, 2 weeks after coming off…shoulder injury saps power and cortisone shots prove it’s not fully healed. Shoulder and hip injuries have such complicated recoveries.
Agreed. Provided his injuries do not significantly hamper him defensively, he is trending downward to the point where he is a better real life player than fantasy player. Unless of course your league counts defensive WAR or something silly in it’s player values.
Another tier five guy for me.
Bogaerts looks very pedestrian with little hope of breaking out, apparently because his swing got so messed up.
I was watching Saturday’s game and the announcer remarked in his first AB how different his swing looked compared to the rest of the year. Great upside, but it’s so troubling how many adjustments mid-season they are making to his swing. At this point he may be better served to head to AAA and get that figured out, but since the Sox best option behind him is Brock Holt, I don’t see that happening.
Cool. Was worried about Desmond’s ground balls. Glad you aren’t.
PS. FYI Villar link is broken.
Fixed. Thanks.
This is why Correa in my keeper league is absolutely untouchable. He’s 20 years old and the best hitter in AA.
I hope he gets called up soon, but my team is loaded and I can wait for 2016 if need be. 6 cat SS stud (OPS in our league).
Brock Holt has ss eligibility. Where does he fit?
Lower tier five for me. Could be quite a bit higher if he played more regularly.
I just traded HanRam for Kershaw straight up, think I made out like a bandit
Absolutely.
Jung Ho Kang seems to be making the most of every opportunity he has to play. What will it take for him to usurp Mercer for the starting job?
What’s wrong with what we’re getting from Castro, Semien, and Peralta? Sure, it would be nice if they each had a couple more homers than they do, but otherwise they’re all off to really good starts.
I agree with this. Seemed like he was negging pretty hard on the tier three guys, but I’ll run with Starlin and Semien all day long.
I’m just comparing how their numbers relate to production at other positions. That gap is larger than usual and larger than the preseason projections had it being.
This…this is one ugly, thin position. I’m shuffling the decidedly-mediocre-but-could-be-worse Andrus and Peralta; I pick correctly a solid 30% of the time.
I got to laugh to see Desmond in the same tier as Tulo…
Indeed. Most of the time Tuolwitski is in the “Not an actual baseball player due to injury” tier.
I feel like that third tier should be broken up. Considering the ZiPS ROS for both Castro and Desmond look extremely similar, it’s hard to justify lumping the former in with that group.
Three straight 20/20 years for Desmond and Castro not having 20 HR+SB combined in either of the last two years is why.
Wouldn’t selling HanRam be somewhat counterproductive? You can get a nice piece, but then you’re likely dumpster diving at a super weak position. Sure, he’ll regress, but you’re giving up an irreplaceable asset when position is considered.
Really good point; I would probably rather have someone like David Price in a vacuum (for example), but I can grab a “limited upside but not terrible” guy like Eovaldi or Miguel Gonzalez on waivers or a potential bounce-back guy like Tillman or Hutchison to replace some of Price’s production. Meanwhile the best SS options on waivers in my league are pretty gross – Aybar, Andrelton, Asdrubal Cabrera. That’s such a big step down from Hanley’s production.
Yeah, this is one of the rare instances where positional scarcity is critical for me. I’m not moving Hanley, unless blown away, if my backup plan for a shortstop is the waiver wire.
Of course it all depends who slots into his slot and who the player you get replaces in your lineup.
Where would Seater and Correa be placed IF they were up?
I’d be tempted to put Correa in tier four, but tier five is probably right.
Traded Kemp and Dickerson for Brantley and Ian Desmond in a 12-team, 10-keeper, OBP league. Guy panicking after slow starts. Who wins the is deal and how close?
I like the Brantley side by a decent margin, but don’t think it’s a blowout.
Brett, please correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t the projection systems’ ROS go with the gambler’s fallacy, rather than project out using remaining games with the initially assumed rates? And isn’t that problematic, if so?
Not sure what you mean, Will. I part don’t quite follow your question, and in part I can’t say for sure hoe the ROS projections work.
I think it *kind of* works like that. The ROS projections weight recent performance more heavily than last years’, and last years’ more than the year prior. During the season the projections don’t drastically change so much as slightly shift. That’s more or less how I remember Dan S describing ZIPS.
Where do you think Chris Taylor fits in? Thinking about replacing Lawrie at my MI position.
I’d just read Duronio’s piece on Miller from today: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/revisiting-the-chris-taylor-vs-brad-miller-debate/
Zobrist? He’s SS eligible in ESPN leagues.
I think the key to a successful Hanley trade (other than pulling it off before tonight since he just got hurt) is involving more than 2 players. Hanley for _______ and semien for instance or a 2 for 2. Get back a third tier guy or perhaps one of the tier 4 guys with upside in addition to the target. Or a move like Hanley and devon travis for Rizzo and semien may make sense.