Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/18/2025

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Matt McLain (+23.05) – McLain is rising in the ADP with good reports that he will be ready for Opening Day after missing all of 2024 with a shoulder injury. McLain has power and speed and should be gaining outfield eligibility this season with the addition of Gavin Lux to the team. The ADP is going to be inside of the top 100, but he was going in the top 50 prior to the injury last year. 

Luis Garcia Jr. (+14.26) – Garica is rising after a breakout season in which he hit a career high 18 home runs and stole 22 bases. Garcia has always had talent and is still very young. 2024 may end up being his best season, but there isn’t much reason his overall numbers should regress fully. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Nico Hoerner (-30.63) – Hoerner is falling because of injury concerns. He has yet to resume hitting or throwing after off-season elbow surgery. There is a chance that he could be ready for Opening Day, but it seems unlikely at this point. Even with the drop in ADP, there is a huge risk taking him where he is going until we have a more concrete timetable. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jonathan India (+14.35) – India is climbing after being traded to Kansas City. We see very often when a player signs a new deal or is traded his ADP rises, but I think this one is a mistake. He is moving to a much worse park and to a team that runs less than where he was in Cincinnati. India could lead off for the Royals but if the power dips down and the stolen bases dry up, he becomes a pretty boring fantasy player. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gleyber Torres (-25.44) – Torres’ drop in the ADP has to do with signing in Detroit with the Tigers. He leaves a loaded lineup that he led off for and is going to a worse park. That being said, Torres was much better in the second half after struggling in the first half. Maybe he doesn’t return to being a 25 homer guy in Detroit, but he can be a value if the price continues to drop. 

Christopher Morel (-25.68) – Morel is dropping after really struggling post trade to Tampa. He hit .191/.258/.289 with three home runs and one stolen base after being in Tampa. This was a product of his atrocious contact skills catching up to him. Morel has power and speed and it is clear the Rays like him, but until he improves the hit tool, there will be massive ups and downs. 

Jose Caballero (-29.31) – Caballero is falling due to concerns over his role in Tampa in 2025. He stole 44 bases and hit nine home runs in 483 plate appearances in 2024, but is projected to be a utility player this season. I don’t know how much I buy that. While his teammate Taylor Walls is a good defender, so is Caballero. He offers a ton of cheap speed and should find ways into the lineup in Tampa making him a good value. 

 

Others of Note

Kristian Campbell (+189.92) – Campbell is rising as his prospect hype is starting to get out of control. Campbell is a really good prospect and could find himself in the Majors really early, but he also has fellow top prospect Marcelo Mayer to compete with in AAA. He took a big step in 2024, but the price is already way too high and still rising for a guy that we don’t think will likely make the Opening Day roster. 

Brendan Rodgers (-186.8) – Rodgers is dropping after being non-tendered by the Rockies. The former top prospect never lived up to the hype but he could be an accumulator in the right situation, but it is hard to see where that will be. 

Thairo Estrada (+107.02) – Replacing Rodgers in, Estrada signed a deal to play in Colorado. Estrada is a decent accumulator and could really enjoy the benefits of hitting in Colorado. His price is still pretty affordable and is worth gambling on a rebound if it doesn’t go up much more.