Say Whaaaaaaaat?! Discussing 10 Surprise Hitters

Every single year, there are hitters that seemingly come out of nowhere to post fantasy seasons worthy of shallow mixed league starting rosters. Whether it’s driven by more playing time than expected or a surprise skills surge, these are the types of players that win leagues. The challenge is determining which hitters are for real and will continue delivering positive value the rest of the season, and which are merely on hot streaks that will end soon, at which point they’ll be dropped in the majority of leagues. Let’s discuss 10 such names.

Jordan Walker

So, ummm, remember when I asked back in early December whether Jordan Walker is the next Driveline Baseball fueled breakout? Well, he’s been the top fantasy player so far this year, so I guess the answer is a resounding yes! Glad I speculated here and rostered him in my two mixed leagues…NOT. Sadly, I failed to follow through. How many of you rostered him on draft day as a cheap dart throw?

Walker’s massive breakout has been fueled by a lot of improvements. First, his strikeout rate has come back down after rising over 30% last year. Interestingly, his SwStr% is not significantly better and well above the league average. He also increased his FB% to a career high, which is good for his home run upside. Surprisingly, he has posted a huge .350 BABIP, despite the high FB%, along with a low LD%. There’s little chance that lasts, so it’s very possible Walker is neutral for batting average, at best, the rest of the way, rather than the big positive he’s been.

Saving the best for last, his HR/FB rate sits at 24.6%, compared to a previous career best of just 14.3%. It was never an issue of raw power. While his HardHit% has ticked up slightly, it was still 50% last year, while his maxEV marks have always been somewhere between 114 and 118 MPH, which is elite. The problem is what he hasn’t been able to translate that raw power in to actual production. This year, he has. His Barrel% has shot up to an elite rate, so he’s finally hitting his balls optimally.

However, he’s still not pulling his flies often enough. His FB Pull% is at a career best, but just 19.7%, as he’s going the opposite way significantly more. It’s pretty incredible he’s been able to post the HR/FB rate and Barrel% he has given the below average Pull% and such a high Oppo%. It makes me a bit less optimistic about his home run power moving forward.

Walker is a really difficult man to project. There don’t really seem to be any big underlying skill improvements here, just getting to the power he always had more frequently. I don’t think he can continue this HR/FB rate given his batted ball direction profile, but I don’t think he’s in for a dramatic dip. He’ll easily outperform the rest of season projections, which are slow to account for skills growth.

Liam Hicks

How has a guy who hadn’t posted an ISO over .100 since Single-A in 2022 or a HR/FB rate above 6.5% over any reasonable sample now sitting here with 11 home runs, a .222 ISO, and 17.2% HR/FB rate?! Seriously, this is the type of guy that no matter how hot he was over any period of time, I would have never bought in.

Both his HardHit% and maxEV sits below the league average, while his Barrel% is significantly below. His BatSpd is just 68.1 MPH. These are not the metrics of a high double digit HR/FB rate hitter. I figured that surely he must be pulling a massive percentage of his fly balls, but that’s not even the case! His FB Pull% is actually below the league average.

I love the walk and strikeout rates and he’s likely due for some BABIP improvement. But man, the HR/FB rate looks like an almost complete fluke to me. In fact, Statcast suggests his xSLG deserves to be nearly 100 points lower than it is. Those homers have moved him into a prime lineup slot, fueling an RBI total of 44, just one less than last year in about 200 fewer PAs.

I doubt anyone is buying high here, so owners can only hold and hope. He’ll almost definitely provide positive value in two catcher leagues, but I just can’t imagine the power lasting.

Ildemaro Vargas

With just one home run so far in May, it seems like the magic is wearing off. The season line still looks strong though, but it’s a lot closer to what he did over a small sample last year than it had been earlier this month.

His low strikeout rate should guarantee he continues to contribute in batting average, but it’s the power that was surprising. He had been the poster child for FB Pull%, which is at a career high at 38.9%. Both his HardHit% and Barrel% are well below average, so he had been taking the Isaac Paredes path to home run production that doesn’t require as much raw power. He’ll likely continue to surprise in the HR/FB rate department, though he’s obviously not going to repeat that 27.3% HR/FB rate he posted over the first month of the season.

Brayan Rocchio

Naturally Rocchio decides to break out the year after I rostered him in AL Tout Wars! This year, I had totally lost interest given the lack of any semblance of skills growth. So of course, he’s just one off his homer total in nearly 200 fewer PAs, and has already swiped one additional base. Oh, and not only has he not been an OBP killer, but he’s actually turned into a monster.

Rocchio’s walk rate has rebounded back to his 2024 performance while also dramatically cutting his strikeout rate. Interestingly, his SwStr% is barely improved from 2024, yet his strikeout rate has nearly been halved. That suggests the strikeout rate likely won’t remain this low.

His batted ball profile looks similar to last year…but worse. He’s hit a lower rate of line drives and higher rate of pop-ups, yet his BABIP has jumped above .300. His Statcast power metrics are nearly identical to last year, and no one is going to argue his 7.8% HR/FB rate is a fluke.

Statcast thinks he’s been pretty lucky so far, and that’s accounting for his actual strikeout rate, which I think is going to rise. so I would bet his batting average and OBP fall, which will cut into his stolen base opportunities. Perhaps this is just sour grapes, but I’m not very optimistic here, especially considering he remains at the bottom of the order even with a .352 wOBA. That means that there’s little chance he finds himself in a better lineup spot without a host of injuries to their starters.

Jake Bauers

Bauers was really only supposed to be a stopgap while Andrew Vaughn was on the IL, but he’s hit so well that, he’s continuing to serve on the strong side of a platoon at the very least (he actually started against a lefty recently), rotating between DH and left field.

A former top prospect, he’s been a disappointment in his career, but is showing his best strikeout, validated by another single digit SwStr%. He has cut his FB%, which is normally good for BABIP, but he has also cut his LD%, both batted balls becoming grounders. That’s not ideal for a guy who isn’t speedy, so it’s a wonder he owns a .336 BABIP, which represents a career best. There’s no way that’s sustainable.

His HR/FB rate is at the second highest of his career, as his Statcast power metrics remain pretty strong, backed by a career best BatSpd that’s in the upper echelon. He has pulled his flies at a below league average clip, but at least it’s nearly double where it was last year. It’s also not low enough to set out the red flags, but he certainly could afford to pull more of his flies.

The batting average won’t last, but I think the power could. The real problem here is playing time. Vaughn was a revelation for the Brewers when he came over last year and has started out strong so far this year. Unless he suffers through an extended slump, he’s playing every day. That means for Bauers to start against righties, the team is going to need to rotate guys, which will cut into his PAs. It could be the difference between maintaining shallow mixed league value or becoming a swimmer in the free agent pool.

Angel Martínez

Gotta love when guys not even expected to open the season as a starter suddenly get the playing time and then enjoy a fantasy breakout. Martínez hit 11 home runs and stole eight bases all of last year over 484 PAs. He’s already at nine homers and the same eight steals in just 182 PAs.

He has marginally improved his strikeout rate, but his walk rate is even more microscopic than it was last year. The lack of walks have ensured his OBP sits below .300, which hampers his real life offensive value and could ultimately be the cause of a loss of playing time.

What’s really driven the fantasy breakout is a HR/FB rate that has surged from 7.5% to 16.7%. Let’s check the usual suspects, his Statcast power metrics, FB Pull%, and BatSpd, to see what, if anything, is behind the spike. First, his HardHit% is indeed up, but still below league average. His maxEV has reached just over 110 MPH, which is a nice jump from last year and above league average. Next, his Barrel% is zoomed from 3.5% to 8.8%, while his BatSpd has jumped 1.5 MPH. So yup, he’s hitting the ball harder and more optimally. Oh, and his FB Pull% has gone from a bit above league average last year to a near elite rate at 46.3%.

To summarize, he’s hitting his balls harder, more optimally, and with greater bat speed, while his fly balls, specifically, are being hit to the pull side at a well above average rate. That’s precisely the recipe for a power breakout. Will this continue? Impossible to say, as it’ll require maintaining career bests across multiple metrics. I probably wouldn’t count on this exact level, but perhaps a low teen HR/FB rate the rest of the way is a fair expectation.

His OBP isn’t much higher than last year, so it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll continue running as often as he has. So that’s another question mark that we won’t know until the end of the season. The biggest worry here is the lack of walks coincides with a strikeout rate increase and/or a BABIP slump and it costs him playing time.

Casey Schmitt

Who had Schmitt as the Giants leader in wRC+ near the end of May on their bingo card?! It’s not even close with him sitting at 152 and Luis Arraez as the next highest at 124. There have been small improvements across the board that have led to this breakout.

First, he has reduced his strikeout rate to below 20% for the first time thanks to an improved SwStr%. Next, his FB% has rocketed above 50%, which is a league-leading level. That’s typically a negative for BABIP, especially when paired with a weak 14.1% LD%, but his BABIP sits at .315, representing a career best. There’s absolutely no way he could maintain that BABIP with that batted ball profile, so something has to give.

His HR/FB rate has jumped to 15.9%, but that’s right in line with a small sample 2024 and really not that much higher than his 12.1% mark last year. He’s already swatted 11 homers so you might assume he’s toting around a big HR/FB rate, but it’s almost entirely due to that FB%. The good news is he’s shown legitimately more power skills this year. His HardHit% has inched up again to a career high and is now firmly above league average, his maxEV is nicely above 110 MPH, and his Barrel% has surged to 14.8%, the first time it has hit double digits. Even his BatSpd has increased marginally.

Guess what else he’s doing. That’s right…pulling his fly balls! His FB Pull% was at 29.3% last year, which is right around the league average, but is up at 42% this year. Like Martínez above, all the skills support the power increase.

He’s not going to be this strong a batting average contributor over the rest of the season, but I do see the power sticking. If he could remain in the three-hole, he’s going to be one of the year’s biggest surprises.

Luke Raley

Raley has been around a while and we thought we knew who the 31-year-old was — a strong side platoon bat with big power, and not much else. This year, he’s taking that power to a new level and hasn’t even been a batting average drain.

His HR/FB rate has jumped to a career best 29.4%, driven by a big spike in HardHit% to over 50% for a career best, along with an absolutely elite 21.2% Barrel%. Oh, and of course, he’s also pulling his flies at a career best clip, though that rate is still just below the league average. His BatSpd has rebounded off last year’s down mark, though in line with previous years.

I’m wondering how the 31-year-old has suddenly upped his power game, but perhaps looking at his absurd SwStr% is the hint that maybe he’s just swings as hard as ever before, trading contact for power in hopes of bouncing back from last season. Clearly, it has worked.

Amazingly, Statcast actually calculates he’s deserving of an even higher wOBA, but that doesn’t mean you should expect it. So is this the beginning of a career power year, en route to 30 homers, even while entrenched in a platoon role? I wouldn’t be surprised. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to merely his 2023 and 2024 level, without the steals, and he’s back to just being an injury replacement in shallow mixed leagues.

TJ Rumfield

I am constantly amazed by the random names that appear in Rockies lineups and definitely didn’t expect Rumfield to make it as a starter through the end of May. Not only has he done that, but he’s been quite good too, as opposed to just good enough to keep a starting job.

None of his skills really stand out, though a 15.1% strikeout rate really helps, especially when you call Coors Field home. Putting the ball in play is more important there than perhaps anywhere else. His Statcast power metrics are middling, so I wouldn’t expect any better than his current low teen HR/FB rate, while his .309 BABIP also looks reasonable and isn’t a near lock to regress.

Overall, the profile is solid, though still grades out as more of a bottom tier starting corner guy in shallow mixed leagues. Part of that is due to the weak Rockies lineup which has limited his runs scored and RBI totals, despite the .358 wOBA. I now feel he’ll finish the year with a starting job as the contact skills make it less likely that he slumps and it’s not like they have any standout alternatives.

Nasim Nuñez

Nunez is the top candidate for most bizarre offensive season. With just a .241 wOBA, it begs the question how he continues to find his name in the starting lineup. With no power, he is heavily reliant on BABIP, but that hasn’t gone his way this year. At least he’s willing to take a walk, but Statcast still think he’s a sub-.300 wOBA guy.

The crazy thing is that despite a .289 OBP, he has swiped 22 bags to lead baseball. Imagine how many he would have stolen if he owned a .300 BABIP! So he’s actually delivered respectable fantasy value, even with zero home runs and a .186 batting average.

How much longer will the Nationals trot him out as a starter for? That’s the risk here, because surely you can’t justify giving 600 PAs to a hitter with a wOBA that far below .300, unless perhaps they have played spectacular defense.

With just two caught stealings, he’s going to continue to run. His BABIP and OBP will probably rise, giving him even more opportunities, but the playing time risk is going to cloud his outlook.

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Which of these names do you think are real and which do you expect to turn back into pumpkins?