Rotographs Rankings First Run – Relievers
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22)
- First Base (Jan. 25)
- Catcher (Jan. 26)
- Second Base (Jan. 27)
- Third Base (Jan. 28)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew-today)
- DH (Jan. 29-later today)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
We can also be reached via Twitter:
- Paul Sporer
- Alan Harrison
- Darren Schienbein
- Benjamin Pasinkoff
- Colin Zarzycki
- Brad Johnson
- Paul Kastava
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 61 for Alan and Paul K., 56 for Colin, 54 for Ben, and 51 for Brad. They are indicated in red on the chart.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| PLAYER | Paul S | Alan | Paul K | Darren | Colin | Benjamin | Brad | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
| 1 | Kenley Jansen | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 |
| 2 | Wade Davis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 |
| 3 | Craig Kimbrel | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Aroldis Chapman | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5 |
| 5 | Zach Britton | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ken Giles | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2 |
| 7 | Jeurys Familia | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 5 |
| 8 | Cody Allen | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 5 |
| 9 | Trevor Rosenthal | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 10 | David Robertson | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 3 |
| 11 | Mark Melancon | 14 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 6 |
| 12 | Hector Rondon | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 5 |
| 13 | A.J. Ramos | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6 |
| 14 | Brad Boxberger | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 10 |
| 15 | Francisco Rodriguez | 15 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 6 |
| 16 | Huston Street | 17 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 17.3 | 17.6 | 5 |
| 17 | Glen Perkins | 24 | 16 | 18 | 24 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 17.4 | 17.2 | 12 |
| 18 | Shawn Tolleson | 19 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 29 | 18.6 | 17.2 | 14 |
| 19 | Carter Capps | 13 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 15 | 20.3 | 20.6 | 13 |
| 20 | Dellin Betances | 16 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 20.7 | 21.0 | 8 |
| 21 | Jonathan Papelbon | 21 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 2 |
| 22 | Andrew Miller | 26 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 21 | 28 | 16 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 12 |
| 23 | Sean Doolittle | 20 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 13 |
| 24 | Drew Storen | 22 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 32 | 23 | 23 | 24.1 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 25 | Steve Cishek | 25 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 25.6 | 26.2 | 8 |
| 26 | Santiago Casilla | 30 | 27 | 19 | 27 | 28 | 24 | 25 | 25.7 | 26.2 | 11 |
| 27 | Jake McGee | 29 | 40 | 37 | 32 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 26 |
| 28 | Will Smith | 33 | 32 | 24 | 34 | 20 | 34 | 21 | 28.3 | 28.8 | 14 |
| 29 | Jason Grilli | 23 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 42 | 29 | 34 | 29.4 | 28.2 | 19 |
| 30 | David Hernandez | 27 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 35 | 31 | 31 | 30.0 | 29.6 | 8 |
| 31 | Fernando Rodney | 28 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 36 | 32 | 32 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 8 |
| 32 | Arodys Vizcaino | 34 | 31 | 33 | 31 | 37 | 26 | 26 | 31.1 | 31.0 | 11 |
| 33 | Brad Ziegler | 39 | 35 | 39 | 30 | 29 | 40 | 27 | 34.1 | 34.4 | 13 |
| 34 | Joaquin Benoit | 33 | 33 | 31 | 38 | 33 | 37 | 37 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 7 |
| 35 | Corey Knebel | 32 | 30 | 32 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 35.0 | 35.2 | 9 |
| 36 | Jumbo Diaz | 35 | 34 | 36 | 33 | 31 | 35 | 45 | 35.6 | 34.6 | 14 |
| 37 | Jeremy Jeffress | 34 | 38 | 40 | 35 | 30 | 33 | 51 | 37.3 | 36.0 | 21 |
| 38 | Tony Watson | 38 | 37 | 34 | 36 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 37.7 | 37.8 | 7 |
| 39 | Darren O’Day | 41 | 39 | 35 | 40 | 43 | 38 | 39 | 39.3 | 39.4 | 8 |
| 40 | Hunter Strickland | 31 | 36 | 43 | 44 | 34 | 36 | 51 | 39.3 | 38.6 | 20 |
| 41 | Roberto Osuna | 47 | 41 | 61 | 41 | 25 | 30 | 51 | 42.3 | 42.0 | 36 |
| 42 | Ryan Madson | 44 | 45 | 41 | 45 | 52 | 44 | 33 | 43.4 | 43.8 | 19 |
| 43 | Nate Jones | 43 | 52 | 42 | 39 | 47 | 54 | 35 | 44.6 | 44.6 | 19 |
| 44 | Jason Motte | 37 | 44 | 38 | 44 | 56 | 42 | 51 | 44.6 | 43.8 | 19 |
| 45 | Joakim Soria | 46 | 46 | 45 | 49 | 41 | 43 | 51 | 45.9 | 45.8 | 10 |
| 46 | Joe Smith | 45 | 53 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 46 | 48.6 | 48.4 | 10 |
| 47 | Kevin Quackenbush | 51 | 43 | 47 | 61 | 44 | 45 | 51 | 48.9 | 47.6 | 18 |
| 48 | Koji Uehara | 50 | 47 | 46 | 42 | 56 | 50 | 51 | 48.9 | 48.8 | 14 |
| 49 | Kevin Jepsen | 48 | 42 | 60 | 46 | 56 | 51 | 47 | 50.0 | 49.6 | 18 |
| 50 | Brett Cecil | 42 | 58 | 61 | 54 | 49 | 47 | 48 | 51.3 | 51.2 | 19 |
Great stuff, Gents.
Does the Boxburger ranking reflect yesterdays trade of McGee ?
Mine does, but only because I’m a procrastinator and finally sat down and wrote them out last night.
RP rankings are generally more fluid than other positions (particularly prior to ST) because so much value is derived from opportunity (ex: if Carter Capps was closing for the Marlins, I’d have ranked him in the top 5).
It seems like everyone is discounting Capp’s injury to close out last year. Or should I be less afraid of forearm tightness?
I’m discounting it for now. I don’t think the club announces he’ll compete for the ninth inning if they had serious concerns.
And I also sort of fuzzed in the McGee trade. It’s not in there perfectly, but it’s good enough. Every ranking always comes with a small +/-
Can you make a list like this for potential SP who have positional eligibility at RP?
I’ll see if we can put a post together, but there’s not enough for a full list.
Slightly different, but I plan to post on Yahoo eligible SP/RP – specifically the possible top relievers who can be used as SP.
Thanks. The list of good relievers w/ SP eligibility is helpful.
OK. I’m ready to hear why Osuna is ranked lower than such stalwarts as Jumbo Diaz, Jeremy Jefress, Hunter Strickland, etc…
Skills wise many of these relievers are really close and all good, but damn Osuna was really impressive last year before and after he took over as closer. Was great in the playoffs. Is he so low because he’s not a lock for the 9th inning? Neither are plenty of other guys in front of him so, again, what’s the deal?
Mainly bc Storen is going to close and Osuna’s role is really up in the air. They want him to start, but he won’t start all year. He has like a high of 70 IP as a pro in any given season.
Is he though? I don’t know why, but Storen has lost the closer gig a few times with the Nats.
If Osuna starts, then he should have pretty good value as a RP eligible SP (though in my leagues that doesn’t matter).
If Osuna is in the pen, he’s at least as good as the other guys in front of him and I’d say he has better Save equity.
If he’s the closer, he should be moved way up the list.
That’s a lotta “ifs” which really explains why he’s so conservatively ranked.
Honestly his SP potential matters little here. I realize some leagues greatly overvalue SPs with RP elig. because of roster setup, but that’s not a consideration here.
I’m expecting Osuna to go to Triple-A.
What? That’s a pretty iffy assumption, Brad. The team is looking to win this year, their ace reliever will most certainly be on the opening day roster.
I would also be fairly surprised if he isn’t asked to close, but that’s at least up for debate.
I don’t think he will be asked to start at all.
They’re making noises about starting him, he was always thought to be a starter. He closed last season due to disastrous roster construction.
I did price other scenarios into his ranking, so I’m not saying this absolutely will happen. Only that it’s more likely than not. If the club is going to use him as a starter, then he kinda has to go back to the minors. Immediately.
“Disastrous roster construction” resulting in a playoff spot and a bullpen that finished top-10 in both fWAR and ra9WAR.
Actually, the “ifs” represent the likely scenarios and they all support a better ranking imo.
Did Estrada miss the list?
Other SP-elig RP?
We’re focused on true relievers.
Does this include guys like Trevor May or Drew Pomeranz?
Yes those would be true relievers.
How do the values of RPs change in a 12 team H2H with 3 RP slots per team? How much more valuable are non-closers with high K’s? (e.g. Betances, Miller, Capps etc.)
That’s a fairly standard setup. If anything, it makes those relievers less valuable since you only have 3 slots to accrue saves (and basically MUST use all of them). It would make your Kimbrel’s and Chapman’s more valuable.
What are the chances that Miller or Betances close for a month or two while Chapman serves a possible suspension and then they hold on to the role? Probably wishful thinking since I was planning on keeping Miller for a 20th round pick…
Since they already said that Chapman will not get suspended, this subject is mute
Who said that? And it’s “moot”.
Nope, mute. Chapman lost his vocal cords in a scary grain thrasher accident this morning. Should be ready to start the season tho.
I think you’re confusing the police not pressing charges with the league. Still, it looks like any suspension will be small for want of evidence. Miller would likely close in his absence, but I’m thinking it will be no more than 2 weeks.
Haha. Thanks Jason and Bach for the laughs. You tried Paul. It’s all we can ever do.
Ummmmmmm, no.
Certainly non-negligible, but the fact that no charges will be filed decreases the “high-end” suspension scenarios. I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB stepped in and did something like suspend him for 15 games, but tough to imagine them looking 1+ months.
Paul – why so low on Aroldis?
The potential suspension of course.
If news came out that he wasn’t going to be suspended or disciplined in any way, where do you re-rank him?
2 behind Davis.
Actually, probably 1. He’s stupid-good.
I’d also have him #1.
Curious others’ thoughts on Robertson vs. Rosenthal? They’re ranked about the same by most folk, but typically Rosenthal is ranked higher, in spite of the fact that Robertson tends to have higher K/9, lower BB/9, and lower WHIP. Is everyone simply assuming that St Louis will provide their closer with more saves than the ChiSox (which seems very tough to predict)? Or is there something else that I’m missing?
I know this isn’t quantifiable so I don’t let it drive my rankings, but I have a weird feeling about D-Rob this year. I’ve always been a huge fan, but for some reason I just have a feeling. Not necessarily implosion, lose-the-job worries, but sort of an off year. Plus I really like Nate Jones, who is lingering.
Maybe something like Rosy’s 2014. Still tons of saves, but it wasn’t pretty.
Robertson’s profile isn’t a great fit for the Cell, and I think we saw that at times last year. Somehow, he got away with it in NYY. He’s still very good, but I think it’s easier to like Rosenthal’s better 2015, younger age, and superior home park.
I will be target ing…..three closers….melancon, rosenthal, and tolleson
closers are a fickle bunch anyway…but these three closed out 94% of their chances last year. (as did F Rod, Jansen, and Miller…but they will cost a lot save miller, who we really don’t know what will happen)
I think the three closers will get decent rope based on their high success rate last year. and they should be available later, costing less
m
I’m surprised that AJ Ramos is so high given the recent report that the job is up for grabs and Capps could conceivably get that job.
That was hard to price in on the fly. My ranks were built before the news.
DH ranks still coming today?
Surprised/confused by SF relievers.
If Casilla deserves to be that low — and I’d rank him half a dozen spots higher — then shouldn’t Romo crack the top 50?
How do guys like Cishek, Storen, Doolittle provide more upside or less risk?
I don’t think Romo is a big factor. By now, Strickland should be the next in line.
I do agree with you re: Cishek, Storen, and Doolittle. Of the three, I only ranked Storen ahead of Casilla.
Why no love for Keone Kela or Luke Gregerson? Are they not worthy setup men who might also the back-up if the closer gets hurt?
Tolleson has lousy control. Owned him last year and he struggled down the stretch, even with all of his saves. Kela has all the tools.
Will Smith really improved vs righties last year. He had a 26.7 k-bb% vs L, and 24.3 k-bb% vs R. He also had 91k in 63.1 innings with 15.2 SwStr%. If you are looking for cheap saves, he could be a good pick since you have him ranked down at number 28.
Rosenthal leads all relief pitchers in total pitches by a pretty good margin during his time in the pen (2013-present). I would venture to guess Matheny has gotten him up in the pen a few times only to sit him back down as well because of the all important save opportunity. It seems like a pretty nice experiment on the limitations of the human arm. He might be completly healthy, but he had some elbow tightness last year. That has me thinking maybe there is some risk of injury there.
Thoughts on Kela ?