Rotographs Rankings First Run – Catchers
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22)
- First Base (Jan. 25)
- Catcher (Jan. 26-today)
- Second Base (Jan. 27)
- Third Base (Jan. 28)
- DH (Jan. 29)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 38 for Zach, 36 for Mike, 38 for Brad, 53 for me, and 46 for Paul K. Everyone in the top 50 (let’s be honest, we probably only needed a top 30 here) were on the lists of Jeff and Dan so they don’t have any +1s. They are indicated in red on the chart.
I was the only one to rank to Tom Murphy from Colorado and I slotted him 38th. Just wanted to mention that.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| PLAYER | Jeff | Zach | Dan | Mike | Brad | Paul S | Paul K | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
| 1 | Buster Posey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Brian McCann | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 4 | Jonathan Lucroy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 5 | Russell Martin | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5 |
| 6 | Salvador Perez | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6 |
| 7 | Travis d’Arnaud | 17 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 13 |
| 8 | Stephen Vogt | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 5 |
| 9 | Yan Gomes | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 10 | Yasmani Grandal | 14 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 9 |
| 11 | Devin Mesoraco | 18 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 10 |
| 12 | Francisco Cervelli | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 2 |
| 13 | Nick Hundley | 7 | 17 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 7 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13 |
| 14 | Derek Norris | 15 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 7 |
| 15 | Matt Wieters | 20 | 19 | 15 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 12 |
| 16 | Yadier Molina | 9 | 18 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 16.1 | 16.2 | 16 |
| 17 | Wilson Ramos | 13 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 10 |
| 18 | J.T. Realmuto | 11 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 9 |
| 19 | Welington Castillo | 21 | 20 | 21 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 8 |
| 20 | Blake Swihart | 24 | 16 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 11 |
| 21 | Miguel Montero | 19 | 22 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 19.3 | 19.6 | 7 |
| 22 | Robinson Chirinos | 16 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 34 | 22 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 18 |
| 23 | A.J. Pierzynski | 23 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 23 | 23.7 | 23.2 | 8 |
| 24 | Jason Castro | 22 | 28 | 22 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 24 | 24.9 | 24.4 | 8 |
| 25 | JR Murphy | 30 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 18 | 24 | 32 | 25.4 | 25.6 | 14 |
| 26 | Dioner Navarro | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 27 | 25 | 25.7 | 26.0 | 4 |
| 27 | James McCann | 27 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 29 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 4 |
| 28 | Chris Iannetta | 28 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 33 | 30 | 28.9 | 28.6 | 7 |
| 29 | Carlos Perez | 25 | 27 | 26 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 28 | 29.7 | 28.8 | 14 |
| 30 | Cameron Rupp | 34 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 22 | 38 | 30.3 | 30.4 | 16 |
| 31 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 33 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 42 | 34 | 33.1 | 32.0 | 12 |
| 32 | Hank Conger | 37 | 36 | 43 | 33 | 25 | 31 | 31 | 33.7 | 33.6 | 18 |
| 33 | Alex Avila | 31 | 38 | 32 | 34 | 38 | 32 | 33 | 34.0 | 33.8 | 7 |
| 34 | Kurt Suzuki | 29 | 32 | 42 | 35 | 38 | 45 | 27 | 35.4 | 35.2 | 18 |
| 35 | Josh Phegley | 39 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 31 | 37 | 39 | 35.6 | 35.8 | 8 |
| 36 | Caleb Joseph | 43 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 38 | 28 | 35 | 35.9 | 36.0 | 15 |
| 37 | Curt Casali | 35 | 30 | 41 | 36 | 38 | 30 | 42 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 12 |
| 38 | Carlos Ruiz | 36 | 33 | 40 | 32 | 38 | 52 | 26 | 36.7 | 35.8 | 26 |
| 39 | Andrew Susac | 41 | 38 | 34 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 36.9 | 36.6 | 7 |
| 40 | Gary Sanchez | 32 | 38 | 39 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 46 | 37.3 | 36.6 | 14 |
| 41 | Tyler Flowers | 48 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 38 | 29 | 36 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 19 |
| 42 | Kevin Plawecki | 40 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 44 | 41 | 38.7 | 38.4 | 9 |
| 43 | Peter O’Brien | 38 | 38 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 47 | 46 | 40.0 | 39.4 | 11 |
| 44 | Dustin Garneau | 42 | 38 | 44 | 36 | 38 | 53 | 44 | 42.1 | 41.2 | 17 |
| 45 | Austin Hedges | 45 | 38 | 46 | 36 | 38 | 53 | 40 | 42.3 | 41.4 | 17 |
| 46 | A.J. Ellis | 46 | 38 | 50 | 36 | 38 | 46 | 45 | 42.7 | 42.6 | 14 |
| 47 | Geovany Soto | 49 | 38 | 51 | 36 | 38 | 41 | 46 | 42.7 | 42.4 | 15 |
| 48 | Michael McKenry | 47 | 38 | 45 | 36 | 38 | 53 | 43 | 42.9 | 42.2 | 17 |
| 49 | Chris Gimenez | 44 | 38 | 49 | 36 | 38 | 53 | 46 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 17 |
| 50 | Max Stassi | 53 | 38 | 47 | 36 | 38 | 49 | 46 | 43.9 | 43.6 | 17 |
Schwaber the catcher?
What about him?
He played 21 games at C last year. If there’s a league that doesn’t give a guy eligibility after 20 games, I’m happy to not be playing in it.
Our league uses 25 games (15% of the season), so Schwarber’s LF-eligible only. Then again, dude still has him signed for 2/$4, so I doubt he’s too upset…
Paul, how can you put me @ #2?
You have 273 PA in the majors and a 28% K rate. Love the pop, hate the hype.
I think there’s a legitimate argument for Schwarber as the #1 catcher, although I’m not so sure I personally subscribe to it. Sure, Schwarber has hype, but Posey is resting on name value. If any ranker is going to put Schwarber #1 he better have a few strong bullet points to back it up. How about the fact that the Cubs should have a much stronger offense than the Giants this year? The Steamer projection isn’t very kind to Posey in the R/RBI department. You could easily argue that the power compensates for the batting average and that Schwarber takes the edge on R/RBIs. You’re probably just not gonna see a ranker take that stance in the first run of rankings.
I also meant to add, if you’re ranking for an OBP league then you’ve got even more of a reason to argue for Schwarber.
With due respect, there is no *legitimate* argument for Schwarber as the #1 catcher. Posey has been one of the stable, dominant forces our game has seen and not just for catcher. I just don’t see 7 HR covering a 40-point in AVG.
Steamer greatly undersells Posey’s PT which is likely due to his being a catcher and the system having limits for catcher. But even without a PT edge over Schwarber, there is no real case to rank Schwarber ahead of him.
The OBP factor cuts the gap, but there still isn’t a *real* case to put Schwarber first.
Meanwhile, the Giants scored more runs and had better marks in each of the triple slash categories last year. The Cubs added, but that SF lineup is strong top-to-bottom, espec. if Span stays healthy.
Actually, Paul, Fangraphs’ own auction calculator only has Posey worth $2 more than Schwarber. That’s easily an amount you can cover if you tweak the projections for any of the reasons I mentioned. Switch the tool to OBP and Schwarer is worth $2 more than Posey. There’s your legitimate argument. Heck, if you take the fans projection instead of steamer, Schwarber would blow Posey out of the water. There’s your hype.
As I alluded to earlier, I don’t personally rank Schwarber ahead of Posey – I’m playing devil’s advocate here. To me, Posey’s consistency and reliability is really what gives him the extra value here. You at least have to entertain the notion that someone who actually likes Schwarber this year wouldn’t be crazy for ranking him ahead of Posey.
Regarding the Cubs vs Giant lineups, I think it’s more apt to focus on 2016 projections than 2015 results, given that the results are baked into the projections. I love Span, but the Cubs added Heyward and a year of valuable growth on their youth. Here are the offensive projections for each team:
Giants
Cubs
I’m mainly looking at wRC+ and seeing that the Cubs are projected to have a stronger offense than the Giants by a decent margin. Add in the park factors (since wRC+ strips them out) and the gap significantly widens.
I’m with Paul here. Schwarber absolutely could outperform Posey, but that’s not the question at hand. In building rankings, we have to weigh expectations. We have a relatively narrow band of expectations for Posey. Schwarber ranges from solid platoon bat to superstar. You have to ignore the cost of uncertainty and Schwarber’s downside to rank him ahead of Posey.
Might you prefer to draft Schwarber 10 or 15 picks after Posey? Sure. But that’s also an entirely different matter. It’s statistically insane to take Schwarber BEFORE Posey.
The three of us all agree then that Posey gets the #1 ranking because of his narrow band of expected results. However, I think it’s unfair to call it “statistically insane” to rank Schwarber over Posey.
1) The only hard statistics presented were the ones I pointed to showing how close the valuation actually is using Fangraphs’ own auction calculator and the steamer projections. I’ve never seen the variance argument presented on FG or any other site with any statistical underpinning.
2) You can make the exact same argument for the 3B pool this year. Donaldson has the narrowest band of expected results, and his projection is similar in value to Arenado/Machado/Bryant. I’m willing to bet some good money that Donaldson won’t be the unanimous #1 pick when the 3B rankings come out. You wouldn’t call it “statistically insane” for someone to rank Donaldson #2, would you?
i like Schwarber as the #1 catcher also. Posey has a strong edge on average but Schwarber has him in the other 4 standard categories IMO.
Posey’s power upside is 25 HRs max. He doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough (~33-34% fly ball rate), he doesnt pull the ball enough (~37-38% Pull rate) and his home ballpark doesnt help much. His HR floor is scary, 12-15.
Schwarber on the other hand profiles as a prolific power hitter. His average FB distance was 308.2 ft compared to Posey’s 288.91 ft, he pulls the ball roughly half the time (46.8%) and he gets the ball in the air (42.3% FB rate). Yes the K% is concerning but he didnt compound it with a poor IFFB rate (7.6%). His floor on HRs is Posey’s ceiling. He has a chance to get 35+ if everything goes right. We all know how HRs correlate positively with Runs and RBIs and that makes Schwarber all the more attractive. Schwarber is also likely to get twice as many SBs than Posey.
Both are eligible at multiple positions but Schwarber is a legit option as an outfielder while Posey isnt a very good option as a 1B.
Posey is likely to get 100+ starts behind the plate again this year which comes with more injury risk and a higher likelihood of wearing down while Schwarber is likely to play mostly as an outfielder and is 6 years younger. I think Schwarber gets more plate appearances than Posey also.
The extra positional eligibility means nothing for catchers. If you’re using catchers elsewhere, you’re playing the game wrong. That said, Posey was 8th among 1B last year and 9th the year before. He’s a better 1B than Schwarber is an OF.
Listen I get it, he’s the new flavor, but I think you guys are both severely underestimating Posey while wildly overrating Schwarber after just 273 PA.
We’re dealing in probabilities here, what’s *likely* to happen. Schwarber could bust out and be the top C, but it’s unlikely. You guys are painting the rosiest picture possible with Schwarber and it looks good, but there is a TON of risk.
And LOL at those fans projections. Again, he could have an amazing season and do something like that if he develops a bunch and cuts the Ks, but the likelihood of that fan proj. coming through is about 10%, if that. Posey has basically done his fan projection four different times and five if you extrapolate his rookie season.
I’m not even the math guy here, but it is in fact statistically insane to rank Schwarber #1 over Posey. There is just no backing for it whatsoever.
It’s literally not statistically insane. I’ve trying to show you how the statistics value Posey and Schwarber closely. I didn’t tamper with steamer or the auction calculator to come up with that result. That’s just what the statistics say. No rosy picture is being painted. No fans projections are being used. The fact that they are valued as similar, statically speaking, is obviously counter-intuitive if you’re not a Schwarber fan, and that’s supposed to make for interesting baseball conversation. Tell me where you think the steamer projections miss the mark. Tell me the issues you have with the way the auction calculator calculates auction values. It sounds like we agree that there’s a risk premium that’s not built into the values, so we’ve come to at least one interesting conclusion. Just don’t dismiss the arguments without responding to them based on your intuition. I’m sure you can think of examples where your intuition has led you astray. As a devoted podcast listen, I know I can think of a couple 😉
Paul already said that he thinks Steamer misses the mark with Posey’s playing time: “Steamer greatly undersells Posey’s PT which is likely due to his being a catcher and the system having limits for catcher.”
To Ballpark Frank, and how Schwarber’s HR floor is Posey’s ceiling: I don’t think you know what a floor is. You’re saying the worst case scenario is that Schwarber hits 25 HRs? No, the worst case scenario is Schwarber strikes out too much, can’t hit lefties well, can’t defend well in the OF or at catcher, and loses playing time, leading to 10-20 HRs. All of those are distinct possibilities. Saying he has a 25 HR floor is laughable.
His position flexibility is definitely a factor. Both Brad (18th) and Paul K (20th) ranked Schwarber as a OF2. His average draft position is 32.53. Is it absurd to take 2 OFs in the top 3 rounds of a 12 team redraft? of course not. It’s almost as common as taking 2 RBs in football. Taking Schwarber there gives you options. Most likely you are going to play him at Catcher but it leaves the door open to take a 2nd catcher. For example, Take a speed OF with some power like Betts, Pollock or Marte in the 2nd and Schwarber in the 3rd. Draft Nick Hundley as your 2nd catcher and only play him in Coors where he had a .957 OBP. You can play Schwarber in the OF on those days and not miss a beat.
One of the easiest positions to exploit in roto leagues is the catcher position. Most people punt the position by waiting until the final rounds to fill the position and end up with mediocre stats from the position and dont max out the games played at catcher. It’s a herd like mentality in fact. 4 of the 5 standard Roto Categories are accumulation stats so this strategy allows you to get better quality and quantity.
@ Scott
I think it’s safe to put 20 HR’s in the books for Schwarber even if he just hits vs righties. He hit 14 in just 212 PA vs righties last year.
Posey’s struggles to get to 20 HRs.
We obviously have different drafting styles. Im not scared off by the small sample size or the strikeouts.
Everything favors Schwarber for a monster season IMO.
– Power peaks in your early 20’s, Schwarber is only going to be 23 when the season starts.
– Schwarber has the Fly Ball Rate of a prolific HR hitter.
– Schwarber has the Fly Ball Distance of a prolific HR hitter.
– Schwarber plays in a hitter frieldly park.
– Schwarber is batting in what looks to be a dominate lineup.
How close was Tom Murphy to making this list?
Seriously? 😐 LOL
Joking aside, I mentioned in the write-up above the chart that I was the only one to rank him and had him 38th.
Thanks, Paul. My tired, post-work eyes managed to skip that paragraph. Sorry about that.
Big discrepancies on wieters and molina. Would love to get takes from the voters on the rationale that guided their rankings re: those two?
I decided to back off entirely until I get more info about his thumb. Since the first thumb surgery didn’t take and there are plenty of comparable alternatives, I see no reason to mess around with him until he’s actually hitting.
Just wondering what Jeff’s rationale is for the low ranking of D’Arnaud? Projecting injury??
Jeff uses the projection systems, which I’m sure project D’Arnaud for injury (and with his history, so should you!)
You would think that the system wouldn’t like Chirinos to get a bunch of AB’s or for Ramos to stay healthy again.
I can understand the “Hundley in Coors” magic to boost his ranking, even given very little in his past to justify it, but there are some highly questionable rankings of Derek Norris, Matt Wieters, and Yadier Molina mixed in there, in my humble opinion.
Molina and Wieters are divisive, but it looks like we generally agreed about Norris. Are you saying he’s too high or too low? I like that he’s one of the better bets to exceed 450 PA and could hit somewhere between 2nd and 5th in the order.
I am a big Grandal fan and he was putting up really solid power numbers until a broken jaw and then subsequent shoulder injury that he played through derailed his 2015. If he has mended I really like him to be a top 5 fantasy catcher approaching 20 HR with a nice OBP (in leagues where that matters).
I think Grandal is one of those guys whose ADP is going to be way higher than his ranking. A lot of people have the same take. Since he’s never really had a full season of success, I decide to treat him similarly to Mesoraco (another guy who could shoot up the ADP board).
“(let’s be honest, we probably only needed a top 30 here)”
Standard AL- and NL-only leagues will each need 24 of these guys, so at least 48 are going to be showing up on rosters. Ranking backups may not be much fun, but finding a guy who might hit .250 instead of .210 or 10 homers instead of 3 can make a real difference.
Yeah, I play lots of deep leagues. Most onlys are only 10 teams and while I do play in some 12s, they’re REALLY scraping the barrel. When you’re dealing with such small samples of C2s, it’s hard to pretend we have any real idea what they’ll do and that’s what I meant by that comment. But I hear you.
I have a $2 Martin and a $1 Perez in a one catcher league. Which one to keep and which one to try to trade?
I came to this ranking looking for answers but they are pretty even, like everywhere else. Martin had a career year and should regress but he’s still in that Toronto lineup. Perez is pretty steady, but is there ever such a thing as steady production from catcher?
Personally I would keep martin. He gets on base a lot more and sees a lot of his at bats out of the 5 and 6 spots.
Perez has seen his BB% decline 3 straight years and his K% increase 4 straight years. Additionally he batted in the 7 and 8 for a good portion of the year.
Shop them both.
WAIT?!
Doesn’t ENO Sarris vote in this too? Did he quit?
IMO Mesoraco might be pretty low here. Aren’t there still rumblings that he could play OF this year? If he’s getting >450 PA, he’s gotta move up yeah?
Realmuto is a top 10 C this year in 5X5. 10 Hr/10 SB with .270 avg – book it!
People love the Schwarber hype but I can’t get behind him at #2. He’s got nice power potential but with that 28% K rate he could go completely off the rails.
Definitely a fair fear but the silver lining, for me at least, is that it’s really weighed down by LHP. His K rate vs RHP was 23.6%. Hardly good, but for a power hitter who shouldnt suffer in the BABIP department I dont see it as such a detriment. He had 14hrs 278/396/557/953 in 176 ab vs RHP. If you give him 450 abs vs RHP, I personally think he will put up gaudy numbers in those abs. His abs vs LHP will bring his slash line down for sure, but I think 450 abs vs RHP would really limit his floor.
Hey, sorry scott, didn’t see you had posted basically the same thing.
That’s the thing. It’s not just potential, and it’s not just power. Schwarber put up actual, game power production in a SSS MLB stint as a 22 year old. Moreover, he put up R+RBI numbers that were so insane they have to decrease independent of whether things go off the rails or not (seriously, in 304 PA, Schwarber had 21 HR and 109 R+RBI. McCann only had 26 HR and 162 R+RBI for the whole season).
Usually with 23 year olds we are discussing potential, but with Schwarber we’re talking about a guy who can negatively regress – actually get worse from 22 to 23 – and still be valuable. That’s what people love. Compared to guys not named Posey, he seems to have both high upside and a McCann type floor. Schwarber can have a dramatic fall in his HR/FB rate, get bumped down the order, and even be stuck in a platoon, and still hit 25 HR with 160 R+RBI.
Not too shabby for a C, especially since that bad outcome of a platoon will likely paradoxically result in a higher batting average since he wouldn’t be facing left handed pitching. Fangraphs’ scouting system has Schwarber’s longer term hit tool at a potential 55, and Steamer projects a 25% K rate for 2016. As a 22 year old, he put up a 161 wRC+ and a .396 OBP against right handed pitching(!). A platooned Schwarber could put up McCann’s counting numbers with a .275+ average. You have to assign an incredibly high probability to Schwarber forgetting how to hit and assign virtually no probability to upside potential to drop him notably down the rankings.
I guess I’m not convinced that we know how well he’ll handle major league pitching in his second year based on a sample size of 69 games.
It reminds me of Chris Davis, who eventually put up big returns for fantasy owners but had similar numbers to Schwarber his first year then struggled for a while.
Let’s look at Davis’ first year, 80 games, 17 Home Runs, 51 Runs, 55 RBI, and .287 Avg. with a K rate of 27.8 which is actually a bit lower than Schwarber’s. Davis’ ISO was higher than Schwarber’s but his BB rate was lower. Lots of hype ensued.
The next year, I, and many others were burned big when Davis’ Ks put big dents in his value. I’m worried about similar problems with Schwarber.
I really like Wellington Castillo in Arizona for a full season this year. I am expecting 20+ HR. It seems like others are not as high on him and I am wondering what am I missing.
The guys who are going purely by projections are capturing several very bad seasons. I’m not using a purely numeric approach, but even I can’t get past how bad he was before going to AZ. Nor can I find a reason why it was different in the desert. That leaves us with a fugly projection.