RotoGraphs Consensus Top 300

by
March 11, 2014

In what should hopefully be the final update to the draft ranking spreadsheet that you can download here — thanks to Blake Murphy, Jeff Zimmerman, Mike Podhorzer and Zach Sanders for their work on it — we’re now adding the top 300 as a tab and a post.

I will say it felt sorta nonsensical by the second half. In most drafts, by the time you’re in the 15th round, your needs have overtaken any value-based picking you could do. It might be great that there are first basemen available for cheap, but if you have first, corner infield and utility already lined up, you won’t be looking at that position. The good news is that we still have the deep positional rankings on the same sheet, now with updated composite projections.

The bad news is that we had to try and figure out the relative value of a flier setup man that might close or might not versus a position player too deeply ranked to actually expect to play on a mixed league team. Enjoy!

Rankings based on 5×5 roto, 12 teams, single-catcher with Middle Infield and Corner Infield spots, 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Each ranker had their own mix of projections and intuition.

RG Name Jeff Zach Mike Eno
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1
2 Miguel Cabrera 2 2 2 2
3 Paul Goldschmidt 6 3 4 3
4 Andrew McCutchen 4 6 6 4
5 Clayton Kershaw 9 4 7 5
6 Chris Davis 7 9 10 8
7 Carlos Gonzalez 5 27 5 6
8 Robinson Cano 17 5 12 12
9 Jason Kipnis 15 10 13 11
10 Ryan Braun 3 38 3 7
11 Edwin Encarnacion 11 19 23 10
12 Troy Tulowitzki 12 18 14 20
13 Prince Fielder 14 13 30 9
14 Adam Jones 10 36 8 17
15 Yu Darvish 18 8 33 13
16 Jacoby Ellsbury 13 32 17 14
17 Joey Votto 20 15 29 16
18 Adrian Beltre 21 20 26 18
19 Bryce Harper 16 47 15 15
20 Dustin Pedroia 30 24 25 19
21 Yasiel Puig 8 46 20 30
22 Eric Hosmer 23 16 46 26
23 Felix Hernandez 44 14 40 27
24 Justin Verlander 43 22 39 22
25 Freddie Freeman 34 28 35 31
26 Max Scherzer 38 7 50 36
27 Shin-Soo Choo 28 45 32 28
28 Carlos Gomez 22 80 11 29
29 Chris Sale 47 29 44 23
30 Adam Wainwright 48 11 38 46
31 Stephen Strasburg 59 17 48 21
32 Jay Bruce 27 67 18 33
33 Cliff Lee 53 23 37 37
34 David Wright 29 51 19 53
35 Hanley Ramirez 24 76 9 49
36 Jean Segura 19 91 16 35
37 Giancarlo Stanton 25 41 52 43
38 Anthony Rizzo 37 34 68 25
39 Starling Marte 33 72 21 38
40 Albert Pujols 50 39 53 24
41 Ian Kinsler 46 25 43 52
42 Jose Bautista 31 54 27 55
43 Buster Posey 52 33 51 34
44 Madison Bumgarner 49 43 56 32
45 Evan Longoria 42 48 42 48
46 Jose Altuve 39 12 64 65
47 Craig Kimbrel 51 30 60 41
48 David Ortiz 58 35 41 51
49 Hunter Pence 45 77 22 56
50 Adrian Gonzalez 54 65 49 40
51 Justin Upton 41 89 36 44
52 Jose Fernandez 70 40 67 39
53 Jose Reyes 35 93 62 42
54 Kenley Jansen 62 42 71 58
55 Aroldis Chapman 57 37 82 60
56 Ian Desmond 26 105 34 72
57 Matt Holliday 65 71 28 76
58 Alex Rios 40 86 24 95
59 David Price 61 49 89 47
60 Jason Heyward 67 58 61 63
61 Zack Greinke 82 21 113 50
62 Billy Butler 74 31 117 45
63 Wil Myers 64 90 55 62
64 Joe Mauer 73 66 69 73
65 Daniel Murphy 103 26 81 80
66 Yoenis Cespedes 56 108 45 86
67 Wilin Rosario 75 73 65 85
68 Aaron Hill 100 60 58 83
69 Alex Gordon 60 61 93 91
70 Matt Cain 112 63 63 68
71 Koji Uehara 94 44 59 115
72 Allen Craig 87 88 75 74
73 Greg Holland 81 57 98 89
74 Josh Donaldson 88 101 84 57
75 Matt Kemp 63 79 96 94
76 Gio Gonzalez 98 75 103 66
77 Michael Cuddyer 78 96 85 90
78 Everth Cabrera 66 78 54 151
79 Mark Trumbo 32 176 88 54
80 Doug Fister 141 53 78 79
81 Elvis Andrus 55 142 57 97
82 Carlos Beltran 69 92 47 149
83 Domonic Brown 79 102 73 105
84 Trevor Rosenthal 89 87 118 75
85 Jordan Zimmermann 127 99 87 59
86 Anibal Sanchez 97 50 99 128
87 Ryan Zimmerman 90 119 90 82
88 Brandon Phillips 102 69 114 96
89 Brian McCann 110 94 83 98
90 Ben Zobrist 71 112 70 132
91 Jose Abreu 72 174 91 67
92 Josh Hamilton 104 103 86 117
93 Desmond Jennings 77 109 74 150
94 Billy Hamilton 36 120 109 148
95 Danny Salazar 167 59 122 69
96 Mike Minor 117 74 149 77
97 Austin Jackson 95 107 97 123
98 Brad Miller 76 159 80 109
99 Chase Utley 138 82 121 84
100 Martin Prado 85 155 95 92
101 James Shields 113 84 112 127
102 Joe Nathan 111 85 107 134
103 Carlos Santana 83 140 76 139
104 Matt Carpenter 114 187 77 61
105 Cole Hamels 101 52 127 160
106 Jayson Werth 108 202 31 100
107 Masahiro Tanaka 122 106 129 87
108 Brandon Belt 116 135 92 103
109 Shelby Miller 130 81 151 88
110 Mat Latos 92 132 79 154
111 Pablo Sandoval 107 56 232 64
112 Sergio Romo 120 70 128 141
113 Norichika Aoki 109 149 101 101
114 Alex Cobb 152 55 123 130
115 Starlin Castro 84 162 116 104
116 Jedd Gyorko 80 167 66 159
117 Pedro Alvarez 93 125 142 118
118 Coco Crisp 91 133 102 155
119 Nelson Cruz 105 113 140 124
120 Homer Bailey 118 141 108 122
121 David Robertson 106 100 158 129
122 Patrick Corbin 139 95 153 111
123 Jeff Samardzija 126 123 139 113
124 Howie Kendrick 137 64 171 135
125 Glen Perkins 146 62 147 157
126 Brett Lawrie 119 118 196 81
127 Ernesto Frieri 131 114 124 147
128 Matt Adams 194 150 110 71
129 Kyle Seager 86 165 188 93
130 Michael Bourn 96 158 138 142
131 Julio Teheran 123 127 190 99
132 Brandon Moss 115 110 132 186
133 Jered Weaver 168 168 104 106
134 CC Sabathia 156 126 154 110
135 Leonys Martin 121 230 94 102
136 Kendrys Morales 174 68 172 133
137 Hyun-Jin Ryu 161 83 164 143
138 Gerrit Cole 147 161 174 70
139 Jonathan Lucroy 155 152 72 196
140 Michael Wacha 182 128 159 119
141 Kole Calhoun 128 201 100 163
142 Aramis Ramirez 154 134 111 197
143 Kris Medlen 135 97 130 236
144 Jonathan Papelbon 153 117 166 171
145 Alfonso Soriano 68 216 136 188
146 Hisashi Iwakuma 145 177 126 161
147 Francisco Liriano 124 136 184 165
148 Torii Hunter 143 180 152 136
149 Sonny Gray 200 175 163 78
150 Jon Lester 148 144 180 145
151 Matt Garza 185 111 131 198
152 Lance Lynn 164 146 144 173
153 Matt Moore 162 138 176 152
154 Shane Victorino 99 257 135 140
155 Adam Eaton 171 179 157 126
156 Neil Walker 175 104 168 189
157 Hiroki Kuroda 219 184 105 131
158 J.J. Hardy 133 170 143 199
159 Steve Cishek 132 182 182 156
160 Chase Headley 129 212 192 120
161 Andrew Cashner 198 129 214 114
162 Addison Reed 183 130 170 177
163 Alexei Ramirez 134 192 155 180
164 Brett Gardner 140 229 120 176
165 Adam Lind 165 164 234 107
166 Brian Dozier 206 122 206 137
167 Khris Davis 196 235 133 116
168 Tony Cingrani 179 131 201 169
169 Victor Martinez 216 213 150 108
170 Will Venable 125 196 148 221
171 Jason Grilli 136 98 218 246
172 Nick Swisher 189 139 252 121
173 Oswaldo Arcia 210 191 115 187
174 Johnny Cueto 220 169 204 112
175 R.A. Dickey 181 210 106 210
176 Andrelton Simmons 173 199 161 175
177 Salvador Perez 193 147 186 185
178 Ben Revere 159 290 119 146
179 Yadier Molina 149 238 162 182
180 Curtis Granderson 160 190 183 209
181 Christian Yelich 144 302 125 178
182 Jim Johnson 213 148 209 179
183 Dan Haren 214 116 199 222
184 Grant Balfour 231 121 208 193
185 Angel Pagan 195 183 137 238
186 Bobby Parnell 190 171 222 172
187 A.J. Burnett 199 178 189 192
188 Avisail Garcia 142 262 134 220
189 Jurickson Profar 170 219 220 153
190 Ian Kennedy 184 224 197 168
191 Jim Henderson 163 208 203 200
192 Asdrubal Cabrera 150 251 145 228
193 A.J. Griffin 197 249 165 164
194 Corey Kluber 245 145 167 219
195 Manny Machado 157 203 279 138
196 Omar Infante 255 115 179 230
197 Fernando Rodney 204 163 175 240
198 Michael Brantley 172 293 160 166
199 Xander Bogaerts 169 195 258 170
200 Carl Crawford 234 173 181 204
201 Justin Masterson 187 223 200 194
202 Casey Janssen 203 215 191 195
203 Nolan Arenado 177 217 254 158
204 Chris Carter 158 222 247 184
205 Nate Jones 223 137 235 229
206 Rafael Soriano 209 157 227 233
207 Josh Johnson 276 172 217 162
208 Tim Lincecum 191 241 141 256
209 Marco Estrada 278 218 193 144
210 Erick Aybar 178 232 233 190
211 Nick Markakis 211 209 211 207
212 Jason Castro 236 246 146 217
213 Mark Teixeira 217 189 216 227
214 Justin Morneau 228 221 226 181
215 Colby Rasmus 166 239 210 242
216 John Lackey 227 226 205 213
217 Matt Wieters 201 271 177 232
218 Evan Gattis 218 243 169 251
219 Todd Frazier 202 233 225 225
220 Ivan Nova 251 185 249 202
221 Dexter Fowler 188 151 291 258
222 C.J. Wilson 186 312 156 235
223 Rick Porcello 243 205 224 218
224 Ervin Santana 261 214 173 244
225 Ubaldo Jimenez 221 197 219 259
226 Anthony Rendon 252 273 260 125
227 Jose Veras 275 153 271 214
228 Melky Cabrera 176 220 257 260
229 Dan Straily 249 267 238 167
230 Jake Peavy 244 237 178 264
231 Tim Hudson 279 266 198 183
232 Jimmy Rollins 180 263 212 282
233 Alex Wood 246 299 202 191
234 Jed Lowrie 247 258 185 250
235 Scott Kazmir 292 181 187 289
236 Josh Reddick 230 236 230 255
237 Will Middlebrooks 222 285 239 208
238 Mike Napoli 205 305 236 211
239 Jonathan Villar 151 287 243 288
240 Zack Wheeler 239 206 264 262
241 John Axford 312 166 256 239
242 Neftali Feliz 291 188 237 263
243 Bartolo Colon 242 228 273 237
244 Huston Street 233 306 231 212
245 Yovani Gallardo 224 254 240 265
246 Brandon Beachy 313 160 244 266
247 Corey Hart 331 227 228 205
248 Chris Tillman 212 270 221 292
249 Chris Johnson 250 301 277 174
250 Kyle Lohse 269 304 223 206
251 Junior Lake 263 309 213 224
252 Yonder Alonso 229 234 280 269
253 Chris Archer 270 281 261 201
254 Josh Willingham 225 247 272 270
255 Clay Buchholz 289 265 194 268
256 Alejandro De Aza 192 284 259 281
257 Tommy Hunter 237 319 207 261
258 Jose Quintana 253 308 242 223
259 Drew Smyly 284 303 246 203
260 Alcides Escobar 226 300 285 226
261 Corey Dickerson 207 314 278 243
262 Wade Miley 257 310 245 231
263 Rajai Davis 288 320 195 267
264 Jarrod Parker 267 313 251 241
265 Scooter Gennett 254 198 331 300
266 Joaquin Benoit 238 186 331 331
267 Dillon Gee 303 311 241 234
268 Gerardo Parra 262 250 263 318
269 Miguel Montero 258 264 299 273
270 Carlos Quentin 286 211 296 305
271 Matt Joyce 259 322 248 272
272 B.J. Upton 235 318 295 254
273 Nate Schierholtz 331 245 229 303
274 Kolten Wong 331 143 304 331
275 Kevin Gausman 324 240 331 216
276 Mark Melancon 331 154 331 299
277 Jhonny Peralta 264 276 287 290
278 Josh Rutledge 248 255 331 286
279 Yan Gomes 319 261 268 274
280 Michael Morse 331 193 274 331
281 James Loney 316 244 331 248
282 Taijuan Walker 321 204 308 307
283 Matt Dominguez 274 316 306 247
284 Adam Dunn 287 248 331 280
285 Ricky Nolasco 300 331 215 302
286 Cody Ross 266 242 309 331
287 Jon Niese 273 277 269 330
288 Tyler Clippard 331 194 331 298
289 A.J. Pollock 256 317 331 252
290 Ryan Howard 297 282 331 249
291 Dustin Ackley 241 274 331 313
292 Derek Jeter 331 307 307 215
293 Michael Saunders 232 331 266 331
294 Cody Allen 331 207 331 297
295 Marcell Ozuna 272 323 297 275
296 Denard Span 240 331 270 331
297 James Paxton 331 321 253 271
298 David Freese 331 295 301 253
299 Edwin Jackson 277 252 321 331
300 Wilson Ramos 310 324 275 276
301 Justin Ruggiano 208 331 316 331
302 Andre Ethier 296 315 331 245
303 Mitch Moreland 268 278 312 331
304 Tyson Ross 329 325 262 277
305 Tyler Skaggs 323 326 267 278
306 Nick Castellanos 260 327 331 279
307 Kelly Johnson 293 331 283 291
308 Chris Young 290 292 310 308
309 David Murphy 331 231 324 323
310 Phil Hughes 331 259 288 331
311 Brandon Morrow 271 283 331 325
312 Mike Moustakas 298 291 331 294
313 Wei-Yin Chen 307 331 255 331
314 Joakim Soria 331 268 331 301
315 LaTroy Hawkins 331 294 331 284
316 Hector Santiago 331 331 276 304
317 Adam LaRoche 281 331 303 331
318 Jason Vargas 331 296 290 331
319 Lorenzo Cain 331 298 331 293
320 Derek Holland 306 330 331 287
321 Bronson Arroyo 327 331 265 331
322 Chad Qualls 331 328 314 283
323 Travis Wood 301 331 293 331
324 Garrett Richards 331 331 294 303
325 Brandon McCarthy 331 329 318 285
326 A.J. Pierzynski 331 272 331 331
327 Martin Perez 331 331 302 306
328 Trevor Cahill 295 331 313 331
329 Miguel Gonzalez 322 331 289 331
330 Bud Norris 331 331 298 319
331 Mike Leake 309 331 319 321
332 Erasmo Ramirez 331 331 315 309
333 Cody Asche 311 331 331 314
334 Charlie Morton 331 331 305 320
335 Trevor Plouffe 314 331 331 312
336 Jhoulys Chacin 302 331 325 331
337 Justin Smoak 320 331 331 315
338 Yordano Ventura 331 331 328 310
339 Travis d’Arnaud 331 331 323 322
340 Ryan Ludwick 331 331 326 324

The players ranked by one analyst are listed on the downloadable spreadsheet linked above.

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

92 Comments
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quinceleather
12 years ago

WAY TO GO JALAP-ENO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1
ashtray
12 years ago

This me be the most volatile batch of consensus rankings I’ve ever seen. You guys have mad disagreements.

1
chri521
12 years ago
Reply to  ashtray

Yea seriously, look at the Hanley ranking. One awful ranking (health reasons maybe?) and one middling ranking there.

-1
centerfield_ballhawk
12 years ago

If I remember correctly Zack Sanders is using a computer based proejction system to complete his rankings. That would be the only logical way to explain some of the rankings that he came up.

0
ncb
12 years ago
Reply to  centerfield_ballhawk

There has to be some errors in how he is implementing his formula to get these results.

Just sloppy, crappy work.

2
scatterbrian
12 years ago
Reply to  centerfield_ballhawk

Right?

Altuve = 12
Cargo = 27

0
JavenMember since 2020
12 years ago

Zach, you seem to be very down on some big name OFers (C. Gonzalez, J. Ellsbury, R. Braun, and A. Jones). I see that your rankings within the OF group are consistent with most but overall you have these guys much lower. Any explanation? Thanks!

0
philosofoolMember since 2016
12 years ago
Reply to  Javen

He’s placing a high value on pitching and a low value of stolen bases, that’s for sure.

0
ncb
12 years ago
Reply to  philosofool

In fact, it looks like he either:
1) has errors
2)is using z-scores within positions yet again despite pretty much everyone knowing it is wrong to do so.

It appears that a SB by a 2BM is worth selling the farm for in his rankings….hence the Altuve and Murphy rankings.

-1
Zach SandersMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  philosofool

neither 1 nor 2.

0
Ray
12 years ago

If Justin Ruggiano ends up outperforming Wilson Ramos, you better believe you’ll be hearing from me. I demand perfection all the way up to #300.

3
JAL
12 years ago

Eno, thank you for doing this. I am sure you will get a lot of questions but I am noticing some possible inconsistences and thought I would chime in. For example, you have Madison ranked as your 5th starting pitcher and Sale 6th, but Sale shows up at 23 overall for you here and Madison at 32. I noticed this with other positions/players as well. Am I missing something? Thanks a lot.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  JAL

I allowed more intuition here and just didn’t feel like Bum should be above Sale. Impossible to keep these perfectly lined up with positional ranks, and there’s been some time in between too. When you’re looking at guys that are right next to each other in the ranks, I think it’s probably time to just look over at the projections associated with the player and decide which one you believe in more.

2
JAL
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Understood. Thanks for the reply.

0
ML
12 years ago

Kudos to each of you for doing this. Agree completely with your 2nd paragraph (as previously debated).

0
Jay
12 years ago

David Wright in the 50s? Way too low. 5 category guy injury history is overblown.

-1
Kevin
12 years ago
Reply to  Jay

Zach – any insight into how your rankings were formulated? I just cant wrap my head around altuve at #12 and Murphy at #26 to name a couple.

1
ncb
12 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

it looks like he is using z-scores within a position (despite it being so wrong to do so). He seems to love 2BM with speed, as there isn’t that much there this year.

-1
Paul
12 years ago

Jose Altuve at 12 needs some serious ‘splainin. I’m just curious what Zach projects for him.

2
Sellys
12 years ago

Zach considers Jose Altuve a 1st round pick? I am so confused.

2
rampantliondd
12 years ago

Pitchers ranked way too high for my tastes. Am I missing something here? Even if we were to assume that Kershaw is going to be healthy all year (reasonable, considering his track record), is he really that much better than the next pitcher on the list to justify taking him that high? Personally, I just can’t leave out the inherent risk in taking a pitcher (shoulder, elbow etc) over a position player that has the ability to contribute to all categories–presumably, starting pitchers aren’t getting you any saves. I’m also just a sour Braves fan and disgusted with fickleness of pitchers at the moment ugghh

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  rampantliondd

It’s pretty intense how much better Kershaw is than #2 over the last three years. Check this out, sorted by Ks since 2011. That’s more than a half run of ERA, which is HUGE! http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d (Otherwise, I agree with you in general, just saying, he’s by far and away the best pitcher.)

0
stonepie
12 years ago

rizzo and kipnis caught my eye right away

0
Peter
12 years ago

Thanks to you all for this and all your other great work.

In an effort to complete the last piece of the fantasy puzzle before draft-day, I was wondering if you are planning on publishing Roto auction values? Thanks again!

0
SR
12 years ago

Do these rankings take into account the injury to Hamels? Otherwise he seems a bit low

0
AJ
12 years ago
Reply to  SR

Obviously they do. Why wouldn’t they?

0
Jackie T.
12 years ago

I can’t believe you guys ranked Travis d’Arnaud over Ryan Lydwick. Total BS.

In all seriousness though, thanks a bunch for this guys. I was one of the people asking for it, appreciate you all taking the time to make it happen.

0
pmacho
12 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

That isn’t total BS. An inconsistent out fielder who was out for most of the season last year vs a top prospect who had trouble at the plate last year. If anything I would put d’Arnaud over Ludwick

-2
RotoworldModsAreNazis
12 years ago
Reply to  pmacho

Re-read post and try again.

Hint: take special notice of the phrase “in all seriousness”‘ including its placement.

1
mekman
12 years ago

Jose Altuve #12, Segura #91, Bryce Harper #45,

Have some respect for your readers. These aren’t the least bit defensible.

2
Ace
12 years ago
Reply to  mekman

How about Altuve at 12 and Andrus at 142? These two strike me as pretty similar players from a fantasy perspective. I’m stumped.

2
ncbMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Ace

probably z-scores within a position. 2B has little speed this year, while SS has plenty. Hence why two similar players can be valued so wrongly.

0
ZACH=ROFL
12 years ago

Daniel Murphy over Bryce Harper? Zach is retarded.

-1
ncb
12 years ago
Reply to  ZACH=ROFL

daniel murphy over carlos gonzalez. Zach makes these rankings pretty much useless.

1
red
12 years ago

Perhaps these are Zach’s bold predictions for the season.

4
rustydudeMember since 2021
12 years ago

Josh and Billy Hamilton – close together!

-1
MentholMember since 2014
12 years ago
Reply to  rustydude

In fact, their games are so similar and they look so much alike, it’s hard to tell them apart.

0
JMo37
12 years ago

Zach:
Matt Carpenter at 187?
I think Jeff, Mike and Enos let Zach get involved so they would look better.

Love the work.

1
matlock
12 years ago

just to add to most of the comments but zach would take morales over gomez according to his numbers. cmon guy. zach went turbo on us

1
Jackie T.
12 years ago

Can one of you more tech-savvy gents run the list again without Zach’s picks and post a link? Not that I don’t appreciate his efforts to hew closer to projection systems and regression, but … I think it would be more useful and productive to have a list not skewed by obvious outliers that don’t pass the smell test like Carpenter at 187, Altuve at 12, Braun at 38, Harper at 47, Segura at 91, Scherzer at 7, Carlos Gonez at 80, Hanley Ramirez at 76, etc.

1
matlock
12 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

one important aspect of stats analysis is common sense, which zach completely ignored here. sad and lazy

2
Jackie T.
12 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

Mark Trumbo 176.

0
sweetdickwillie
12 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

Please take Zach’s projections out and repost. The list is useless in its current form. Thanks.

0
Steve Z
12 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

CarGo at 27, wow

0
ncbMember since 2020
12 years ago

This will come off harsh, but when you post rankings like Zach’s on your website it makes your website not worth visiting.

I understand he uses a computer system but there is no way he could get those rankings out of a computer without doing something drastically wrong. I have my own computer system that ranks players based on projections found on this website, and I have Altuve as the 11th ranked MI, and Carlos Gonzalez as the 4th ranked player. There is no way those should deviate so much without an error in methodology or execution. Since mine seem more in line with reality, I’m going to have to go with Zach messed up somewhere.

3
ncbMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  ncb

EDIT: A few years ago I came to fangraphs when I realized that people at ESPN (like AJ Mass) were just randomly multiplying things and presenting them as fantasy analysis when they had nothing to do with reality. Please don’t be ESPN.

-1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  ncb

Zach’s written extensively about his system. He does replacement level, and he looks at stats in the general population for z-scores, and then he compares the z-scores within the position for a positional adjustment. When I asked him about these values, he said that second basemen are bad at the bottom this year, which is defensible. We have a downloadable chart right there, and it takes about three seconds to take one set of rankings out of the consensus. WE built these as consensus rankings to reduce the effect of each of our rankings.

Guess where Altuve is ranked without Zach’s ranking. 46th.

0
Garrett
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I do a somewhat similar system for my rankings. Altuve is nowhere near the #12 overall player. I don’t know what on earth Zach could have done in his rankings, but to publish something like those on this site is absurd.

0
matlock
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

gotcha. thx for shedding a little light on that. I don’t agree with it but it makes some sense now.

0
Stormin' Norman
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

How is that possible? By proxy, does that mean his rankings overall hold little to no weight or what? I don’t really understand how removing his rankings doesn’t change overall rankings unless you all went 1×1 through each player to rank them as a group.

Maybe someone smarter than me can help explain this.

0
Atreyu Jones
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

He drops to 54th without Zach’s ranking when I did it.

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Yep. 54th. Dunno what happened the first time. Still doesn’t seem like a huge deal.

-1
ncb
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

If “comparing the z-scores” within a position means comparing each category separately, then it is probably being done wrong.

If “comparing the z-scores” within a position means comparing the sum of all the categories, is he assuming the league is 30 teams with no MI position or something? That is the only logic I can see to explain Altuve without an error in methodology. 2B and SS should have similar replacement values once you account for players with eligibility at both positions and are nearlyu identical in any league with a MI spot (most of them).

I seriously love this site (and love that almost all the posters answer comments) but those rankings don’t line up with other rankings which are completely based on projections and computers. Something is wrong.

-2
Owen
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Thank you to all four of you for taking the time to do this. My drafting is much less like a blind baboon swatting ping pong balls at a target in the next room than it would be without you guys.

I think the issue with Zach’s projections is that he relies heavily on within-position comparisons. This produces a lot of volatility, and a little optimism on a player in a weak position can turn into a huge jump in projected value. It also means that even though a lot of star outfielders are good bets for great production (Cargo, Ells, etc.) they push each other down and, in this case, 2B and SP shoot up the charts.

I quibble with Zach some on the low replacement level for 2B, but more on the likelihood that Murphy and Co. will so dramatically outperform that replacement level as to be worthy of these rankings.

Now, who wants a beer?

1
Bruce
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I am hoping that he is not calculating Z scores with only 2B as the sample. It is probably better to calculate overall Z scores and then filter by pos if you wanted a positional rank or to look for positional scarcity. An example to explain my point… If all catchers steal 3 bags and one steals 10 he is going to get a massive z score in the steals category when he is really just stealing 10 bags.

0
Chris
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

With all do respect it doesn’t really matter how fancy or how clever your model is if the results make little sense. It is totally possible for a model to spit out complete garbage. Using a model to find some arbitrage opportunities can be smart. Using a model to predict Jose Altuve to be the 12th best fantasy player probably not so much so. Your goal when making a model should be to get the right answers not the answers you think you should see. Having the confidence to post those projections on this website is ballsy though.

1
Owen PoindexterMember since 2016
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Bruce, I agree that within-position z-scores are a bad idea, but I think that’s how Zach got his results. That, something similar, or he has some serious inside dirt on Murphy, CarGo, and about 48 other guys.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

We’ve gone over this. He does the z-scores across all of baseball first so that three stolen bases from a catcher is not impressive. Then he compares those z-scores within the position after he’s reduced them to z-scores. So you know that a catcher with five stolen bases is not that great, but he’s a little bit better than most catchers since he isn’t as negative in that category. It’s really as simple as this: the replacement level for second basemen is really crappy in his estimation.

-2
Chris
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

@Eno which is why he has Carpenter at 187? Shouldn’t he have looked at it and thought “You know what it is very very improbable that these some of these guys put up the values that I projected?”

0
Garrett
12 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

His system still makes no sense spitting out those results.

Altuve’s losses at HR, RBI equaled out the gains in SB when I ran a similar system. I had him at #55 overall hitter and the #8 2B.

I’m hoping the rank of Altuve at #12 isn’t based off the fact that the ‘replacement level’ (I would think to be guys in the #12-15 rank at 2B) suck. Guys in the 1-12 range make up a normal team, so wouldn’t you want to look at the depth there to determine how high to draft a position? If the 3-12 suck, then its worth bumping up #1 and #2 at the position. Why would the guys who are left on the waiver wire at the end of the draft change who you take during the draft?

0
Ben Suissa
12 years ago

it must be hard being a writer. so much hate.

2
croggs
12 years ago

I’m confused about the rankings of Cano and Kipnis. For the second base consensus rankings (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-consensus-ranks-second-base-2/), Kipnis was ranked #1 over Cano. Here, Cano is ranked ahead of Kipnis. Also, Eno and Mike ranked Kipnis ahead of Cano in the consensus rankings, but Cano ahead of Kipnis in the overall rankings. Is there a reason for the different rankings on an overall vs. by position basis that I’m overlooking? Or maybe you guys just had a change of heart?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  croggs

Dunno what happened there on my end, checked against what I had and it didn’t make sense. Fixed!

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  croggs

Updated projections and some additional players added to the pool. I didn’t update either of these players, but when the stats pool changes, so do player values. They were prob very close to begin with and initially I had Kipnis barely above Cano. When I reran my values with everyone again, Cano jumped just above Kipnis.

1
croggs
12 years ago
Reply to  croggs

Fair enough. I wasn’t trying to call you guys out or anything. I was just curious if you had a sudden change of heart on Cano/Kipnis or if I was misinterpreting something. Thanks for the responses.

1
ML
12 years ago

Doubront was ranked 13 spots ahead of Morton in the SP Rankings. Morton made this list and he didn’t (I think). why?

0
Ben Suissa
12 years ago

FOR THE GOOFS WHO KEEP COMPLAINING. JUST DOWNLOAD THE FILE, AVERAGE OUT ONLY THE 3 OF THEIR RANKINGS (NOT ZACH’S) AND THEN RESORT IT. I JUST DID IT AND THE LIST LOOKS A TON BETTTER

1
Dave T.
12 years ago

Just for fun, I removed Zach’s totals from the spreadsheet and recalculated. Sample of new ranks:

1 Mike Trout
2 Miguel Cabrera
3 Paul Goldschmidt
4 Ryan Braun
5 Andrew McCutchen
6 Carlos Gonzalez
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Chris Davis
9 Adam Jones
10 Jason Kipnis
11 Robinson Cano
12 Edwin Encarnacion
13 Jacoby Ellsbury
14 Troy Tulowitzki
15 Bryce Harper
16 Prince Fielder
17 Yasiel Puig
18 Carlos Gomez
19 Yu Darvish
20 Joey Votto
21 Adrian Beltre
22 Jean Segura
23 Dustin Pedroia
24 Jay Bruce
25 Hanley Ramirez
26 Shin-Soo Choo
27 Starling Marte
28 Eric Hosmer
29 Freddie Freeman
30 David Wright
31 Justin Verlander
32 Felix Hernandez
33 Jose Bautista
34 Chris Sale
35 Giancarlo Stanton
36 Justin Upton
37 Hunter Pence
38 Max Scherzer
39 Cliff Lee
40 Albert Pujols
41 Stephen Strasburg
42 Anthony Rizzo
43 Adam Wainwright
44 Evan Longoria
45 Ian Desmond
46 Buster Posey
47 Madison Bumgarner
48 Jose Reyes
49 Ian Kinsler
50 Adrian Gonzalez

Also, just want to throw in that Eno is a treasure.

3
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Dave T.

Weird, I coulda sworn Altuve didn’t move. But he did. To 54th.

0
Owen
12 years ago
Reply to  Dave T.

I did that and then added the variance in their projections. Here are the least agreed on out of the top 100 (most agreed on are almost all in the top 15):

1. Billy Hamilton
2. Carlos Beltran
3. Everth Cabrera
4. Jedd Gyokro
5. Desmond Jennings
6. Jayson Werth
7. Alex Rios
8. Doug Fister
9. Ben Zobrist
10. Carlos Santana

2
Jackie T.
12 years ago
Reply to  Dave T.

How do you do this? Could you somehow post the full list?

0
ZACH=ROFL
12 years ago

I love the bold ranking of Joaquin Benoit over Matt Carpenter. Genius.

-1
ZACH=ROFL
12 years ago

I love the bold ranking of Nate Jones over Elvis Andrus. Controversial.

-1
ZACH=ROFL
12 years ago

I LOVE you guys, but you need to not be so stubborn and fix this Zach-crap. It adds no benefit. The computer/JZ element was fine in pitching, but this trash is nonsensical.

2
jim
12 years ago

I seem to remember Zach’s rankings engendering a similar response in the past

1
Bill
12 years ago

Ryan Ludwick, YOU MADE IT!!!

1
mitch001
12 years ago

Some sleazy guy in an ESPN/Yahoo fantasy league:
“Hey I’ll trade you Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, David Ortiz, and Billy Butler for Carlos Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Braun, and Harper. You’re getting a great deal – just look on Fangraphs! It’s a very well respected site so you know this is legit.”

0
tysonvt
12 years ago

Jose Altuve at 12? How the fuck is Zach even allowed to write for this site? Pathetic.

-1
Matthew Galante
12 years ago

Yea same comment as everyone else, Zachs system really messed the list up, easy fix for us but come on. Murphy at 26? I get the argument for 2nd base being weak etc, but you cant go solely off a system, some common sense has to used.

2
Bill
12 years ago

Possibly a dumb question – but please explain the best way to use the “sanity consideration” tab. Is this already baked into the composites?

0
Ruki Motomiya
12 years ago

Jose Altuve 12? Seems legit.

0
quinceleather
12 years ago

Why all the hatred? if you don’t like something ignore it or work around it. Last I checked this site was FREE. To actually swear about something you don’t agree with and get aggravated is really over the top. Is there nothing to learn from the rankings?
To Eno, Mike, Zach and Jeff–I appreciate the work. Thanks.

1
ZACH=ROFL
12 years ago
Reply to  quinceleather

There is something to learn from the rankings: Do not visit Rotographs rankings as long as Zach is a part of them or changes his philosophy.

-1
B Mart
12 years ago

Downloaded the spreadsheet. Pitcher K’s are clearly off, did this affect rankings in any way?

0
Steve Z
12 years ago

So I assume based on these rankings that in 5×5 league I should definitely keep Adam Jones at $24 over A. Rios at $17? Thanks!

0
bballislife17
12 years ago

Zach is this year’s Jeff. Remember last year when Jeff’s rankings had everyone calling for his immediate termination from fangraphs?

Just disregard opinions if you don’t think the methodology is sound.

0
Matt
12 years ago

Same feedback – appreciate it all but highly recommend not using Zach’s method. FWIW.

Thanks homies!

0
Jasper
12 years ago

Gerrit Cole is way too low!

0
What
12 years ago

Zach, your rankings are an abortion.

I get what you’re going for and I think it’s very novel (the world underrates pitching), but the fact is that SBs and HRs actually count equally for both Outfielders [I]AND[/I] position players. I know! I had to look it up!

Unless you really think Altuve’s 75/9/45/35 line is worth 8 ROUNDS on Gomez’ 80/25/80/40.

Revamp it brah!

0
Ol Jim Tom
11 years ago

You guys feel pretty stupid don’t you. I mean Altuve was the man this year

2
isasson
11 years ago

When you guys update this for 2015, could you include Prospects in it? Thanks

0
Sj
11 years ago

No Dee Gordon? He was the 4th ranked 2B, 54 overall back in Feb.

0