RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are the best. For whatever reason — perhaps their true talent changes more year to year, or they have less control over their results than hitters, or injury is more pervasive — pitchers are harder to project than hitters. I personally believe it’s because the power of changing your pitching mix can make you a new pitcher.
Look at Dallas Keuchel. He used to have a meh curve, he ditched it for a good slider. How relevant are his past stats now? You move a pitcher from the tougher league to the easier one, and you have to guess at how much that will matter, to some extent. Because the defense behind them will change too. In Doug Fister’s case, it always seemed like he’d get better defense at his new stop. Is that the case? Or consider the case of Jose Fernandez and the lack of major league sample size. You regress him, and he’s still great. Or Masahiro Tanaka, the complete lack of major league stats.
Pitching is great. Look how wildly we disagree.
Rankings based on 5×5 roto, 12 teams, single-catcher with Middle Infield and Corner Infield spots, 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Each ranker had their own mix of projections and intuition.
| RG | Name | Jeff | Zach | Mike | Eno |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Yu Darvish | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 6 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Adam Wainwright | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Stephen Strasburg | 10 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | Chris Sale | 4 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Cliff Lee | 9 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Madison Bumgarner | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | Jose Fernandez | 12 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 12 | David Price | 11 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 13 | Zack Greinke | 13 | 7 | 27 | 13 |
| 14 | Cole Hamels | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| 15 | Matt Cain | 20 | 19 | 11 | 15 |
| 16 | Gio Gonzalez | 17 | 21 | 24 | 17 |
| 17 | Jordan Zimmermann | 23 | 27 | 16 | 14 |
| 18 | Doug Fister | 29 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 19 | Anibal Sanchez | 16 | 14 | 20 | 38 |
| 20 | Mat Latos | 15 | 37 | 13 | 25 |
| 21 | Mike Minor | 19 | 20 | 37 | 18 |
| 22 | Kris Medlen | 22 | 26 | 33 | 19 |
| 23 | James Shields | 18 | 24 | 22 | 37 |
| 24 | Danny Salazar | 40 | 18 | 25 | 20 |
| 25 | Masahiro Tanaka | 21 | 28 | 31 | 26 |
| 26 | Shelby Miller | 24 | 22 | 38 | 24 |
| 27 | Homer Bailey | 25 | 40 | 23 | 30 |
| 28 | Alex Cobb | 36 | 17 | 28 | 39 |
| 29 | Jeff Samardzija | 27 | 31 | 29 | 34 |
| 30 | Patrick Corbin | 30 | 25 | 35 | 32 |
| 31 | CC Sabathia | 34 | 32 | 32 | 31 |
| 32 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 31 | 50 | 26 | 27 |
| 33 | Jered Weaver | 42 | 46 | 21 | 29 |
| 34 | Julio Teheran | 26 | 33 | 53 | 28 |
| 35 | Gerrit Cole | 33 | 45 | 45 | 21 |
| 36 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 35 | 23 | 46 | 42 |
| 37 | Michael Wacha | 43 | 34 | 40 | 36 |
| 38 | Sonny Gray | 44 | 49 | 42 | 22 |
| 39 | Francisco Liriano | 28 | 38 | 47 | 44 |
| 40 | R.A. Dickey | 39 | 59 | 18 | 47 |
| 41 | Hiroki Kuroda | 54 | 53 | 19 | 41 |
| 42 | Lance Lynn | 37 | 43 | 36 | 51 |
| 43 | Matt Garza | 51 | 29 | 30 | 59 |
| 44 | Jon Lester | 32 | 41 | 52 | 45 |
| 45 | Matt Moore | 41 | 39 | 51 | 50 |
| 46 | Andrew Cashner | 49 | 35 | 64 | 35 |
| 47 | Johnny Cueto | 59 | 47 | 61 | 33 |
| 48 | Tony Cingrani | 50 | 36 | 63 | 52 |
| 49 | A.J. Griffin | 47 | 69 | 44 | 43 |
| 50 | Ian Kennedy | 38 | 63 | 58 | 46 |
| 51 | A.J. Burnett | 52 | 51 | 49 | 55 |
| 52 | Dan Haren | 53 | 30 | 67 | 57 |
| 53 | Tim Lincecum | 48 | 68 | 34 | 64 |
| 54 | Corey Kluber | 65 | 42 | 41 | 69 |
| 55 | C.J. Wilson | 46 | 86 | 39 | 48 |
| 56 | Justin Masterson | 45 | 62 | 55 | 58 |
| 57 | Marco Estrada | 79 | 61 | 56 | 40 |
| 58 | John Lackey | 60 | 64 | 62 | 63 |
| 59 | Jake Peavy | 66 | 66 | 50 | 71 |
| 60 | Ervin Santana | 70 | 60 | 43 | 81 |
| 61 | Tim Hudson | 80 | 74 | 48 | 53 |
| 62 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 58 | 55 | 69 | 74 |
| 63 | Alex Wood | 61 | 84 | 60 | 54 |
| 64 | Dan Straily | 64 | 75 | 74 | 49 |
| 65 | Ivan Nova | 68 | 54 | 79 | 61 |
| 66 | Rick Porcello | 69 | 57 | 70 | 66 |
| 67 | Chris Tillman | 57 | 76 | 65 | 67 |
| 68 | Scott Kazmir | 84 | 52 | 54 | 89 |
| 69 | Yovani Gallardo | 56 | 71 | 73 | 83 |
| 70 | Josh Johnson | 74 | 48 | 66 | 96 |
| 71 | Zack Wheeler | 63 | 58 | 83 | 82 |
| 72 | Clay Buchholz | 82 | 73 | 57 | 77 |
| 73 | Bartolo Colon | 62 | 65 | 91 | 72 |
| 74 | Brandon Beachy | 94 | 44 | 76 | 79 |
| 75 | Kyle Lohse | 75 | 90 | 68 | 65 |
| 76 | Chris Archer | 77 | 79 | 88 | 60 |
| 77 | Wade Miley | 71 | 93 | 75 | 70 |
| 78 | Jose Quintana | 67 | 106 | 72 | 68 |
| 79 | Dillon Gee | 85 | 91 | 71 | 73 |
| 80 | Drew Smyly | 81 | 100 | 80 | 62 |
| 81 | Kevin Gausman | 97 | 67 | 106 | 56 |
| 82 | Taijuan Walker | 95 | 56 | 85 | 93 |
| 83 | Ricky Nolasco | 83 | 88 | 59 | 99 |
| 84 | Jon Niese | 73 | 77 | 87 | 94 |
| 85 | Jarrod Parker | 72 | 106 | 81 | 75 |
| 86 | James Paxton | 106 | 85 | 82 | 87 |
| 87 | Edwin Jackson | 78 | 70 | 106 | 106 |
| 88 | Tyson Ross | 99 | 106 | 86 | 76 |
| 89 | Travis Wood | 89 | 106 | 95 | 84 |
| 90 | Phil Hughes | 100 | 72 | 96 | 106 |
| 91 | Brandon Morrow | 76 | 80 | 122 | 98 |
| 92 | Wei-Yin Chen | 90 | 106 | 77 | 105 |
| 93 | Trevor Cahill | 88 | 106 | 106 | 80 |
| 94 | Bronson Arroyo | 106 | 102 | 84 | 92 |
| 95 | Tyler Skaggs | 98 | 94 | 92 | 100 |
| 96 | Jason Vargas | 106 | 82 | 97 | 106 |
| 97 | Mike Leake | 92 | 106 | 118 | 78 |
| 98 | Miguel Gonzalez | 96 | 106 | 99 | 97 |
| 99 | Henderson Alvarez | 106 | 106 | 94 | 95 |
| 100 | Mark Buehrle | 106 | 97 | 93 | 106 |
| 101 | Felix Doubront | 91 | 99 | 106 | 106 |
| 102 | Martin Perez | 106 | 106 | 106 | 85 |
| 103 | Yordano Ventura | 106 | 105 | 106 | 86 |
| 104 | Jhoulys Chacin | 87 | 106 | 104 | 106 |
| 105 | Bud Norris | 106 | 89 | 103 | 106 |
| 106 | Hector Santiago | 106 | 95 | 98 | 106 |
| 107 | Jenrry Mejia | 106 | 106 | 105 | 91 |
| 108 | Erasmo Ramirez | 106 | 96 | 106 | 101 |
| 109 | Brandon McCarthy | 106 | 87 | 110 | 106 |
| 110 | Eric Stults | 106 | 78 | 125 | 102 |
| 111 | Brett Anderson | 106 | 98 | 101 | 106 |
| 112 | Tanner Roark | 106 | 92 | 109 | 106 |
| 113 | Garrett Richards | 106 | 104 | 100 | 106 |
| 114 | Charlie Morton | 106 | 106 | 102 | 104 |
| 115 | Derek Holland | 86 | 107 | 133 | 106 |
Players ranked by one analyst: Matt Harrison, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Locke, Matt Harvey, Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, Josh Beckett, Scott Feldman, Tommy Milone, Juan Nicasio, Joe Kelly, Wily Peralta, Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob Turner.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Eno, you clearly owe my main man Anibal Sanchez an apology… and you owe me an explanation for the reason(s) you ranked him at #38.
Innings! I docked him because he had shoulder issues last year and is a labrum surgery survivor.
Are aren’t convinced his steady velocity and elite SwgStr% push him to ace status?
Had him pretty good while in: 181 13 0 179 3.61 1.23
And now look it:
3-17-2014 Shoulder problems resurfacing!
Why is everyone (not just these rankers) so down on Jered Weaver? I know he’s dealt with some injuries, but it was only like 2 years ago that he was a top 5 option (if I remember correctly). What am I missing?
With his strikeout rates, control numbers, and velocity all trending downward I think we all want to wait and see him turn it back around before giving him the benefit of the doubt, otherwise we are drafting him for a couple years ago instead of what he is today. We just don’t hold out much hope it will happen. At this point, he’s just a risk and there are more reliable options.
If you look at 2010 as the crazy outlier in terms of both velocity (90.1) and K/9 (9.35), the rest of the numbers don’t look to be trending downward nearly as precipitously.
The K/9 has dropped from 7.50 to 6.8 (not good, but not as awful), and the velocity has dropped from 88 to 86.8 (also not good).
I think this means a) he may not fall much farther if he can avoid injury, but also b) a rebound is very unlikely.
For whatever reason, he threw much harder and K’d many more hitters in 2010 and it is out of line with the rest of his career.
I think he’s about what he is at this point (not much improvement or decline coming).
This aint 2012
why are Zach and Mike so low on Gerrit Cole?
Not enough Ks, I would guess.
Not down on him, I don’t think. Only 180 innings, 11 wins, meh WHIP.
If you’re down on Cole for lack of innings, why so high on Jake Peavy?
Eno,
What is the reasoning that you have Sonny Gray ranked so far ahead when compared with the other rankers?
I picked up Sonny Gray as my 3rd SP and near the later rounds too, couldn’t believe how far in the draft I was able to get him. So, obviously, I was excited when I saw you had him at 22, any specific reasons why you like him so much more than everyone else seems to?
I don’t see an innings limit in his future, so my projection is heavy on innings: 199 13 0 179 3.48 1.16
Thanks for the reply!
I felt the same way about him. Being on the east coast I didn’t get to see him a whole lot, but the times I do remember seeing him pitch I thought his stuff looked electric, a lot of promise in that young arm.
Salazar at 24????? That is a crack smoking number for a guy who will probably have an innings cap. I know who I will nominate early and make people spend money on
I don’t think he’s going there in drafts, at least not yet. Every single one of his pitches is plus to elite by whiff rates. He gets twice the whiffs of a normal four-seamer on his four-seamer. His splitter is top five. His slider is plus. All he needs to do is figure it out. As for innings limit, teams are usually comfortable with 20% on top of last year. He had 145 innings, and his team pushed his innings total last year, and he has more weapons than Sonny Gray. My projection: 175 12 0 184 3.39 1.13
But he’ll have an innings limit though?…
I love Salazar, but the innings limit worries me in my H2H league. Don’t want him to get shut down when I’m in the playoffs. Is that a reason to avoid him in that draft?
I would think the Indians would be more inclined to limit his per-game pitch count, rather than completely shutting him down late in the year. Keep in mind, Cleveland will want to have him pitching if/when they’re trying to make a late September playoff push.
I’m with Zach on the outlier high ranking for Cingrani. The strikeouts and the success at every level with his limited repertoire is just too intriguing. He was pretty darn good in points leagues last year, and that’s with high pitch counts and some control issues. If he has really improved his secondary offerings, I’m willing to gamble on his upside right up there with Salazar, Cole, Gray… the popular high-upside young hurlers.
Eno, why “so low” on Cobb, Kluber, and Kazmir? Thanks!
Kaz is innings. I have no idea why Cobb and Kluber were so low. My projections:
Cobb 192 13 0 166 3.44 1.25
Kluber 178 9 0 166 3.75 1.28
My guess is that there’s a lot of pitching so good numbers aren’t as good as they used to be. I was surprised how they ended up when I ran the numbers.
Last keeper, Cobb or David Ortiz? Already keeping Trout and Goldy
sounds like a fun 6 man league
6 man league? I’m going to let you in on a little-known fantasy secret. Maybe it’ll help you out with your future teams. Get players before they get too valuable and you may end up having more than one elite player on your team!
Crazy, right?
Mike, you seem to be relatively down on a lot of young pitchers: Shelby Miller, Tony Cingrani, Kevin Gausman, the entire Atlanta Braves staff. Explain?
My Shelby projection is nearly identical to Steamer’s, but over 180 IP. Is that down on him?
Cingrani only 160 IP projected with a slightly hurtful WHIP and 3.68 ERA.
Gausman got majorly docked in IP after the Ubaldo signing. Only projecting 100 IP now.
Minor, Medlen and Teheran all outperformed their SIERA marks last season, so my ERA projections reflect their underlying skills without the benefit of luck.
Minor is actually following in quite nicely with his progression thus far, merely capitalizing on a stellar stretch run he had in ’12 and doing exactly what he was expected to follow it up with in ’13. He surprised nobody. Granted, going into age 26-27 I wouldn’t expect him to surpass the 3.00/1.10 barriers by very far, but Ks will rise to the upper 7s.
Did you know Teheran all-but abandoned one of his breaking balls for most of last season after he was told he was complicating things? An arm THAT lively with a plus pitch in the tank does not lose steam.
Did somebody spot the SIERA projections playing in the street and decide to give it a bath and a home inside the offices or something? Minor’s a head-scratcher, but Teheran is as elementary as the concept gets. He always was an all world natural talent, then last year he goes out and harnesses it. At what point in this are you finding “luck”?? I mean besides the hitters that didn’t have to see his knee-breaker.
The breakdown of Scherzer’s ranking sticks out to me. 3, 2, 9, 10? That’s a pretty big split for an elite type of guy. Why do you think?
For me, regression. Last year was his first elite year, but it came at an older than usual age for pitchers. I have a very hard time believing he’ll put up those numbers again. He’ll get you the strikeouts and K/9 or K/BB if you’re league uses that, but I don’t think the rest of his stats will hold up.
Think it has more to do with how close together that second tier of pitchers is. All of the top-9 guys got at least one top-4 vote (except for Felix). And the gap between 3 and 9 is just 2.25 (5.75 for Verlander, 8.0 for Lee).
Other than the injury risk, is there a reason your so low on Buchholz? Most of the rankings I’ve seen have him in the late 40’s by the Kuroda’s and
Garza’s.
163 IP projected for me.
Do we really think Sabathia has ANYTHING left in the tank? Any signs he can improve upon last year? If not, he aint useable.
I’m buying in one last time after skipping him in each of the last two years. Dude lost a TON of weight, just go find a pic of him in spring training. He looks slim and powerful all of a sudden instead of lazy and pudgy. His mediocre recent stats could bring a bargain even if he doesn’t revert to a top-10 level.
Can I ask you how often you follow these annual “best shape in years” spring training narratives? And how often you have success with it.
“Best shape of his life,” is usually garbage, Andrew, but CC looks like he lost an entire ellsbury off his gut – there are plenty of pictures online if you google something like “skinny CC.”
However, I’m not necessarily optimistic it will help. Who’s to say his weight didn’t help him get more power in his delivery and keep everything going downhill? Maybe the weight loss will help. I don’t know, but I wouldn’t have any confidence betting on one or the other.
There are 2,564 signs he can improve upon last year.
Is that how many pounds he dropped?
As for Teheran, is the lack of really change up the problem? He’s good a very good fastball slider and an decent curve looking at whiff rate
He has a pitch that acts as his changeup; kind of a slower 12-6 type breaking ball. He just decided to stop throwing it. He was psyching himself out and getting erratic so he simplified things. Now that he’s established he will work in yet another plus pitch. In other words, pay no attention to the projections behind the curtain.
Poor Jordan Zimmermann.
Gerrit Cole at 35 looks a little bonkers to me. The second half splits, the K spike, the stuff, the pedigree, the make up, even the favorable park. So many green lights. He’s the 18th pitcher off the board in the NFBC right now.
Have a feeling y’all might be looking back at this one like Matt Harvey at 41 last year.
And two of these guys put him at #45 (!!) And it’s not even like Mike/Zach are just anti-young gun, as they have guys like Salazar, Gray, Cingrani, Kluber, and Wacha above Cole. Bonkers is right.
Yeah, see my above comment on Cole.
Does anyone have experience projecting Wins?
Whenever I see experts talk about pitcher wins, they go one of two ways:
1) Impossible to predict, so don’t try
2) Good teams = more wins
Of course IP/Games Started is a huge factor, but that’s easy enough to project. So really, I want to project Wins per Start.
Doing some very basic regression analysis in Excel, for the past 5 years, I could only get the following R-squared values (wins-per-start variable):
ERA: .2904
WHIP: .2365
Team Wins: .2196
Innings Pitched per Start: .2038
Combining multiple (ERA, Team Wins, and IP/GS) only gets up to around .44.
Anyone have anything much stronger?
Do you keep a 5th round Chris Sale or a 23rd round George Springer?
5th round Chris Sale. Around the 5th round is a decent time to select your first starter, especially if a top-10 type of guy like Sale is available. As such, I think he is great value there. Springer, on the other hand, could still be available in your draft at round 23 or possibly go undrafted.
You won’t redraft springer in the 23rd, he’ll go much higher in a keeper.
Mike has Dickey (18), Kuroda (19), Weaver (21), Salazar (25) all ahead of Greinke (27)?
That’s very strange…
Tell me about it! Greinke projection: 200 12 3.53 1.24 175. Unreasonable?
It’s clear that I have some ‘splaining to do about my Dickey projection. Actually, lots of it comes down to my 220 IP projection, boosting his wins and Ks.
Agree on Cole. I think people are too cautious to be wildly optimistic given that he’s still young and only dominated for a third of a season. But I think you can make an argument that his pure stuff is better than anyones in the game right now. He has three legit plus plus pitches imo, and his change has some pretty absurd fade on it, could easily become another. He didn’t even really use it last year because his curveball was so effective effective VS lefties. I’d guess he’s three times more likely to win a the cy young than any of the 5 guys ranked above him.
I always seem to wind up with Cole and Gray in my drafts as my#2 and 3 pitchers. Love those guys this year.
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed in Masahiro Tanaka. Given that there is a likely adjustment period to the MLB and that he pitches half of his games in Yankee stadium, I wouldn’t expect lower than a 4.00 ERA in his first year. Better off taking a safer pick like Homer Bailey than using a likely high pick on a pitcher that risks killing your pitching numbers.
Pod has Iwakuma > Greinke. Zach has Greinke > Verlander. One degree of freedom away from deducing that Iwakuma > Verlander, which none of the individual rankers even came close to doing. I don’t know what this means, if anything, but it is mildly interesting.
CC Sabathia over Gerrit Cole. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
We start 6 SPs in our league. I would take Gerrit Cole as my #1 or #2 and I would not take CC as my #6.
Thanks for the free money!
Whose the troll who gave Matt Harvey a vote? Too soon, man, too soon.
I think all of these rankings would be a little better if they were ranked by median instead of mean.
If ranked by mean it might be better but it would be nicer.
Would *not* be nicer.
I don’t care that you caveated the Jose Fernandez with small sample size, him outside of the top 10 is awful, Eno is the only one who came close having him at 9. Owner of the best FIP (1.99) in all of baseball in the 2nd half of the 2013 season and the 6th best FIP (2.73) for the season, Jose is easily top 10. Small sample size is a weak argument for keeping a 21 y/o kid projected to be top 3 in K/9 among SPs in 2014, with no control issues and elite velocity (he’s hit 98-99 several times) out of your top 10. I think he makes a strong case for top 5 – Kershaw has earned #1, Yu is in there, Felix for consistency and durability, Scherzer, Sale too, but Jose is in that mix. Big swing and miss there fellas.
His K/9 and SwStr% are so elite that Jeff, Zach, and Mike are just his latest victims. They were helpless.
I know! I’m so pissed these guys don’t give pitchers the amount of credit I think they should. Kris Medlen owned the best 2nd half FIP in 2012 (2.22) and he doesn’t even crack the top 20!
Oh wait. Small sample size.
Not that Fernandez isn’t awesome, but he had a babip against him of about .240 and an 80% strand rate last year. If you think he’s repeating those numbers I have an investment opportunity in the Brooklyn bridge for you. Plus his team sucks so wins won’t be easy to come by. I’m guessing those factors were more significant for the rankers than SSS.
Tyson Ross is far too low. 12th best opp ops in MLB; 8.57 k per 9 (15th in NL); 1.15 whip. Dominant down the stretch in 2013 and pitches in San Diego. Missing the boat on this one.
Love Tyson, but innings and supporting offense matter, both of which hurt his ranking. Plus, his control isn’t good, so his WHIP will be harmful in mixed leagues.
Odorizzi? #5 in TB is that bad that he doesn’t hit the chart?
136 IP of meh for me. No good pitches by whiff rate.
I’m assuming Chris Sale would have had a higher ranking if he was projected to have more wins?
Of course. I project wins using a formula based on projected team runs scored, so put any pitcher on a higher scoring offense and his projected valued rises.
Are you guys going to release a rankings spreadsheet like you did last year? If so, could you possibly include more details in the projections? AB, K’s, BB’s, Doubles, or any other useful stats? Love the work guys!
Ctrl+F “Michael Pineda”
Not found.
Huh.
He’s a complete crapshoot, so is there really a point? No one has a clue what he’s going to do this year and over how many innings.
Why the love for Kevin Gausman (in a non-keeper league). We don’t even know whether he’ll be starting, relieving, or headed to AAA for the season’s beginning.
Fister at 18 is very surprising. Low k rate (around 7), just decent era (3.4-3.5), WHIP around 1.2
why so high on him?
He’s a groundball pitcher who’s actually going to have a functioning infield behind him for the first time in two years.
Switch to NL will boost everything a bit.
the WHIP is good with Fister but that’s all that I’m really loving with him
Keep up the good work, guys! I can’t believe how quickly you are pumping out these rankings.
Johnny Cueto is so low.
Zach, what’s the knock on Iwakuma?
Injury
Between Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray and Danny Salazar, I have considered them in exactly that order. Was surprised to see Salazar quite a bit more highly ranked than the other two.
Pretty much across the board 50s for AJ? Bad, bad ranking. I think you’ve gotta slot him about 40. I expect him to finish top 30 again.
I know everyone loves Matt Moore to regress, but all the way down to #45?
Does keeping a 21st round Wacha over a 5th round Sale make sense?
People forget that Salazar was under the radar as a prospect because he had Tommy John Surgery in the minors. I think for as much as everybody preaches and knocks guys for injury risk, he has just as much as anybody. Although I love the stuff the risk involved shouldn’t be overlooked. He pitched 50 innings in AAA and 50 innings in the majors last year, and the 140 innings he threw last season across the minor and majors was the most he’s ever thrown in a season besides the 107 in 2009. I love the kid but he’s being ranked really aggressively in my opinion, not just here but everywhere and his price on draft day is pretty substantial considering.
Where’s Wily?
Mo Pena? Playing in Japan or at a state fair eating contest, likely.
Eno: does Bailey’s recent groin woe (woh?) affect his ranking in your eye?
How’s about Morrow? Looks better than 90’s-ish no?