Reflections From A Very Deep, Very Early Auction

I participated in my first auction draft of the season on Wednesday night and oh boy, was it a doozy. An 18-team mixed league auction with 29-player rosters (5×5 but with OBP in place of AVG), and while it doesn’t quite qualify as an “industry league,” it may as well have for the amount of talent in there.

This league also happened to be the worst finish on my ledge in 2013, so I had some additional motivation. While writing assignments and preparing for Sloan distracted me some and a brief loss of connection gave me Aramis Ramirez at $18 when I didn’t really need another expensive corner infielder, it went pretty well, I think.

Since it was such an early draft and such a deep one (522 players selected), I thought I’d post some reflections today.

Patience
For the second year in a row, patience seemed to be the prudent strategy. Unfortunately for most, that’s a trait that only the league’s defending champion seems able to employ with any zeal.

Basically, it came down to this, it seemed: people weren’t willing to forego moderate values early on for the possibility of larger values later. As a result, there are some teams with impressive talent but almost no middle-class, while the league’s best “on paper” team doesn’t have a player who went for more than $25.

I fell somewhere in between, grabbing a few players at a price below my projected value for them early but then sitting back until I had a relatively larger stack and was able to identify players I wanted and attack them without too much risk of a bidding war.

Strategies
The hardest thing with an 18-team draft is that the chances of someone else trying to employ the same strategy as you is basically 100 percent. Stars and scrubs? Get ready to spend heavily on those stars and basically snake-draft for the scrubs. Wait out the middle-class? LIMA? Better bank on $3 or $5 for those names instead of $1. And so on.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go in with a strategy, however. I played it a bit looser than I normally do, both because I got burned a bit last year being inflexible in my strategy and because it’s still February and my plan just wasn’t all that fleshed out yet. Again, I feel it worked out pretty well, with one exception.

Late in the game, I had the hammer in terms of remaining budget. I had two starting pitching targets and X amount earmarked for them, but I figured they would be competitive targets. Corey Kluber and Taijuan Walker are both buzz names, so I figured in a league with this much talent, they’d be hot commodities. So when I nominated Kluber, I backed off too early in the bidding to ensure I got Walker, who I valued slightly higher. Kluber ended up going for a significant discount, I got Walker cheaper than I expected, and I ended up with $2 left at the end of the draft.

Maybe Kluber would have been bid up by more than those $2 and I would have lost out on Walker as a result, but the moral is: you can’t take the money with you when the draft is over. If you put yourself in a position to have the hammer late, use it.

Catchers
This was an 18-team league that starts two-catchers (weekly lineups), so I figured you might be interested in how the catcher market played out. The table below shows the catchers drafted and their price.

Nomination	Player	Price
30	Buster Posey, SF C	$30
32	Carlos Santana, Cle C	$29
77	Joe Mauer, Min C	$28
57	Yadier Molina, StL C	$22
125	Brian McCann, NYY C	$22
113	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil C	$17
42	Evan Gattis, Atl C	$15
60	Jason Castro, Hou C	$15
147	Wilin Rosario, Col C	$14
163	Salvador Perez, KC C	$14
181	Wilson Ramos, Wsh C	$14
185	Matt Wieters, Bal C	$13
241	Miguel Montero, Ari C	$13
139	Yan Gomes, Cle C	$11
236	Alex Avila, Det C	$10
217	Russell Martin, Pit C	$9
250	Travis d’Arnaud, NYM C	$7
218	A.J. Ellis, LAD C	$5
229	Welington Castillo, ChC C	$4
253	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mia C	$4
259	A.J. Pierzynski, Bos C	$4
269	Ryan Doumit, Atl C	$4
211	Hank Conger, LAA C	$3
261	Devin Mesoraco, Cin C	$3
263	Carlos Ruiz, Phi C	$3
295	Dioner Navarro, Tor C	$3
349	Yasmani Grandal, SD C	$3
247	Ryan Hanigan, TB C	$2
299	Geovany Soto, Tex C	$2
302	Mike Zunino, Sea C	$2
344	John Jaso, Oak C	$2
401	Josmil Pinto, Min C	$2
361	Chris Iannetta, LAA C	$1
416	Tyler Flowers, CWS C	$1
424	Kurt Suzuki, Min C	$1
476	Michael McKenry, Col C	$1
366	Derek Norris, Oak C	$1
499	Jesus Montero, Sea C	$1
518	Josh Phegley, CWS C	$1
520	J.P. Arencibia, Tex C	$1

With 36 catcher slots, 40 catchers were selected, with an average price of $8.43. That’s about 6.7 percent of the available funds, which is actually a shade less than the “average” price of two roster spots ($9.17).

How deep was this league? Jp> Arencibia got drafted. In an OBP league.

Closers
Another interesting position when leagues have this many teams is the closer position. There are 30 closers on opening day and 18 teams, though obviously, unlike catcher, rostering a set number is not a requirement.

Again, here are the relief pitcher eligible names and how much they went for, though they’re not all closers:

Nomination	Player	Price
15	Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP	$25
53	Greg Holland, KC RP	$19
100	Kenley Jansen, LAD RP	$19
69	Koji Uehara, Bos RP	$18
90	Aroldis Chapman, Cin RP	$17
171	David Robertson, NYY RP	$16
148	Joe Nathan, Det RP	$15
149	Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP	$15
153	Sergio Romo, SF RP	$13
165	Addison Reed, Ari RP	$13
169	Glen Perkins, Min RP	$11
188	Grant Balfour, TB RP	$11
186	Jim Johnson, Oak RP	$10
189	Jason Grilli, Pit RP	$10
208	Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP	$10
245	Bobby Parnell, NYM RP	$10
246	John Axford, Cle RP	$10
221	Ernesto Frieri, LAA RP	$10
134	Drew Smyly, Det RP	$9
173	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP	$9
202	Fernando Rodney, Sea RP	$9
207	Casey Janssen, Tor RP	$9
255	Neftali Feliz, Tex RP	$9
270	Jim Henderson, Mil RP	$9
199	Huston Street, SD RP	$8
220	Steve Cishek, Mia RP	$8
281	Tommy Hunter, Bal RP	$8
267	Nate Jones, CWS RP	$7
279	Jose Veras, ChC RP	$5
321	LaTroy Hawkins, Col RP	$5
275	Mark Melancon, Pit RP	$4
278	Rex Brothers, Col RP	$4
285	Kevin Gausman, Bal RP	$4
306	Tyler Clippard, Wsh RP	$2
330	Heath Bell, TB RP	$2
339	Joakim Soria, Tex RP	$2
354	Carlos Martinez, StL RP	$2
356	Jesse Crain, Hou RP	$2
439	Tanner Scheppers, Tex RP	$2
288	Joaquin Benoit, SD RP	$1
312	Luke Hochevar, KC RP	$1
319	Chad Qualls, Hou RP	$1
320	Pedro Strop, ChC RP	$1
322	Jason Motte, StL RP	$1
348	Shawn Kelley, NYY RP	$1
357	Sergio Santos, Tor RP	$1
362	Jake McGee, TB RP	$1
364	Brian Wilson, LAD RP	$1
372	Darren O’Day, Bal RP	$1
373	Jordan Walden, Atl RP	$1
375	J.J. Putz, Ari RP	$1
381	Joel Hanrahan, FA RP	$1
390	A.J. Ramos, Mia RP	$1
405	Brad Ziegler, Ari RP	$1
409	Junichi Tazawa, Bos RP	$1
418	Edward Mujica, Bos RP	$1
420	J.J. Hoover, Cin RP	$1
428	Francisco Rodriguez, Mil RP	$1
434	Brett Anderson, Col RP	$1
436	Drew Storen, Wsh RP	$1
438	Kelvin Herrera, KC RP	$1
446	Kevin Siegrist, StL RP	$1
453	Josh Fields, Hou RP	$1
458	David Hernandez, Ari RP	$1
469	Vic Black, NYM RP	$1
470	Ryan Webb, Bal RP	$1
472	Matt Lindstrom, CWS RP	$1
473	Sean Doolittle, Oak RP	$1
482	Josh Collmenter, Ari RP	$1
490	Luis Avilan, Atl RP	$1
496	Joel Peralta, TB RP	$1
296	Cody Allen, Cle RP	$1
314	Danny Farquhar, Sea RP	$1
503	Robbie Ross, Tex RP	$1
509	Brandon Kintzler, Mil RP	$1
514	Bryan Shaw, Cle RP	$1
519	Neal Cotts, Tex RP	$1

That’s 77 relief-eligible arms, so on average a major league team’s closer and “next in line” were both taken, plus some spec plays. The average cost was $5.31, representing just over half the “average” player value. As you’d expect in a “smart” league, people weren’t willing to pay much for saves and only Craig Kimbrel went for $20 or more.

Closing Thoughts
Bryce Harper went for $50 in a non-keeper league. That’s crazy, right?

Anyway, the draft was a blast and leagues this deep are always a really fun challenge. Would it have been nice to draft in March so we know a little more? Sure, but drafting this early also forces managers to make speculative plays at the end of their roster, betting on Spring Training battles and the like. Plus, it’s a really good way to start your draft season, really putting the depth of your knowledge to the test early – it only gets easier from here.

For those curious, here’s a plot of the player prices, by position: