RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings: Shortstop
You know what? I don’t think I have to link back to the positions we’ve done before. Because David Appelman was kind of enough to revamp the RotoGraphs landing page, and now you can easily access all your draft tools — including our consensus ranks, and later our tiered positional ranks — just by scrolling your eyeballs to the right an inch-plus. Scroll those eyeballs! Enjoy one-touch draft tools! Applaud the dark overlord!
Okay, back to shortstops. Given the health and bust/regress concerns of the other shortstops in the top five, maybe it’s not surprising that we have a new number one shortstop this season. Starlin Castro won’t wow you in the speed or power stats, but he is on the right side of his peak, and he has been slowly building his skillset, so it seems that his risk of regression is low, and he should be healthy, too. It’s in interesting that we agreed by not agreeing — only one analyst had Castro first, and yet it seems fine that he is first. It’s not like we can just wipe away those lost Jose Reyes seasons.
The last few shortstops in the top twelve, even the top fifteen — those look like a decent argument for waiting on the position in mixed leagues. Why not get Josh Rutledge and Andrelton Simmons and hope one outperforms their projections b just a little bit? You’ll probably get plenty of exciting players while you’re waiting on that duo.
So maybe Castro or wait this year in most leagues?
| RotoG | ES | JZ | MP | ZS | Name | PA | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | Starlin Castro | 678 | 0.288 | 82 | 12 | 71 | 15 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | Jose Reyes | 653 | 0.294 | 94 | 11 | 61 | 27 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Troy Tulowitzki | 491 | 0.3 | 71 | 23 | 78 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | Hanley Ramirez | 614 | 0.269 | 78 | 19 | 74 | 16 |
| 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | Ian Desmond | 586 | 0.268 | 68 | 16 | 67 | 14 |
| 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | Elvis Andrus | 698 | 0.279 | 87 | 6 | 57 | 19 |
| 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | Ben Zobrist | 676 | 0.262 | 89 | 19 | 77 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 5 | Martin Prado | 642 | 0.294 | 85 | 13 | 66 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | Jimmy Rollins | 630 | 0.25 | 81 | 16 | 58 | 20 |
| 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 11 | Alcides Escobar | 665 | 0.27 | 74 | 6 | 58 | 22 |
| 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 603 | 0.273 | 73 | 15 | 70 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 17 | Josh Rutledge | 556 | 0.279 | 74 | 15 | 63 | 14 |
| 13 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 12 | Derek Jeter | 562 | 0.288 | 69 | 8 | 50 | 7 |
| 14 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 15 | Alexei Ramirez | 591 | 0.265 | 61 | 13 | 61 | 10 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 13 | Erick Aybar | 481 | 0.276 | 55 | 7 | 48 | 13 |
| 16 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 20 | Andrelton Simmons | 554 | 0.258 | 60 | 7 | 48 | 16 |
| 17 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 21 | Jean Segura | 417 | 0.247 | 39 | 5 | 38 | 24 |
| 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | Danny Espinosa | 562 | 0.234 | 58 | 17 | 62 | 11 |
| 19 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 16 | J.J. Hardy | 548 | 0.252 | 64 | 19 | 63 | 1 |
| 20 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 24 | Everth Cabrera | 443 | 0.237 | 44 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
| 21 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 23 | Zack Cozart | 463 | 0.242 | 44 | 12 | 50 | 6 |
| 22 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 22 | Yunel Escobar | 528 | 0.264 | 58 | 8 | 49 | 3 |
| 23 | 25 | 15 | 35 | 19 | Hiroyuk Nakajima | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 24 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 25 | Jhonny Peralta | 484 | 0.259 | 53 | 13 | 56 | 1 |
| 25 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 26 | Jed Lowrie | 406 | 0.253 | 48 | 12 | 46 | 2 |
| 26 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 28 | Rafael Furcal | 401 | 0.263 | 48 | 6 | 34 | 7 |
| 27 | 24 | 32 | 27 | 32 | Stephen Drew | 390 | 0.245 | 42 | 7 | 39 | 2 |
| 28 | 34 | 22 | 33 | 29 | Ruben Tejada | 566 | 0.257 | 56 | 3 | 39 | 5 |
| 29 | 26 | 38 | 25 | 34 | Maicer Izturis | 254 | 0.263 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 7 |
| 30 | 32 | 29 | 36 | 30 | Jamey Carroll | 485 | 0.275 | 51 | 1 | 37 | 7 |
| 31 | 38 | 31 | 32 | 27 | Cliff Pennington | 394 | 0.253 | 37 | 5 | 37 | 9 |
| 32 | 29 | 26 | 36 | 38 | Billy Hamilton | 206 | 0.22 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 45 |
| 33 | 31 | 28 | 36 | 37 | Jurickson Profar | 345 | 0.232 | 38 | 6 | 34 | 11 |
| 34 | 37 | 34 | 31 | 31 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 397 | 0.235 | 32 | 5 | 34 | 6 |
| 35 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 33 | Luis Cruz | 346 | 0.249 | 30 | 6 | 37 | 2 |
| 36 | 28 | 42 | 28 | 42 | Tyler Greene | 225 | 0.238 | 24 | 6 | 24 | 7 |
| 37 | 39 | 36 | 36 | 39 | Daniel Descalso | 380 | 0.247 | 34 | 4 | 35 | 3 |
| 38 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 42 | Dee Gordon | 216 | 0.242 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 15 |
| 39 | 41 | 39 | 36 | 35 | Brandon Crawford | 434 | 0.24 | 38 | 6 | 40 | 2 |
| 40 | 36 | 41 | 34 | 40 | Clint Barmes | 409 | 0.235 | 35 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| 41 | 40 | 42 | 36 | 41 | Brendan Ryan | 377 | 0.222 | 34 | 3 | 28 | 8 |
Others ranked by one analyst: Sean Rodriguez, Mike Aviles, and Eduardo Nunez.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Lost seasonS plural is a bit of a myth for Reyes.
Yes, 2009 was a lost year w/ only 36 games played. He had 5 straight seasons of 153+ GP and 700+ PA before that year. His GP/PA totals 2010-2012: 133/603, 126/586, 160/716. Yes, he has missed 20-30 games in 2 of the last three seasons but since he’s a leadoff hitter he’ll still amass more PA than most SS. This comes out in the wash in shallow roto. The timing of his injuries has been absolutely terrible for H2H but once can’t reasonably expect that to be a trend.
I don’t think motivation is an issue if he made it out there 160 times for the depressing 2012 Marlins….if ever there was a time to take a month off w/ a phantom hammy that was it.
Bottom line: Reyes hit .287 w/ 11 HR and 40sb in a down babip year in 2012 and is now moving to a much more potent lineup in a more hitting-friendly division/homepark. I am buying for 2013. #7 is craziness from Mr. Sanders w/ all due respect.
On the one hand I find myself agreeing with Zach’s rankings generally– it’s conceivable that Reyes and Hanley are at the same level as Rollins/Asdrubal this year and that their actual value is less than their perceived value based on being former first-rounders in what has traditionally been a very shallow position.
On the other hand, I could make the same case for Ian Desmond or Elvis Andrus. It may be the difference between number 1 and number 7 just isn’t that great at SS this year, and we tend to focus on minor differences in top 10 rankings, but Zach’s ranking of Reyes clearly impacted what is now his official RotoGraphs ranking.
I agree. With all due respect to Mr. Sanders he must really think Reyes is going to get injuried but he is entitled to his opinion.
I agree that I think most people are making to big a deal about his injuries and the turf in Tor. Turf isn’t as bad as it used to be and Reyes is entering his age 30 season. Plus steamer is the most down on Reyes SB potential just so people looking at that don’t think that Reyes is on likely to only steal 27 bags. Most have him in the mid 30’s after 40 last year.
Tulo’s injuries scare me more and make him one of the biggest gambles in fantasy baseball this year.
Re: Tulo
Yeah, but remember September 2010?
If Reyes is hitting under .300 and only stealing 40 bases it is hard for me to take him in the 2nd round since batting leadoff means fewer R+RBI than other early picks. SB are also really easy to make up later while power is harder to get in the late rounds without taking big hits in AVG/SB. I wouldn’t rank him #7 or anything but I’ll gladly pass over him to take one of the other total studs that are around where he goes.
i like the new design; much easier to find things in this format. Would also love to see a rotographs-specific search tool or tag cloud as well.
As for the rankings here, I’ll again echo my desire posted in the comments of other rankings for a little more transparency in the process here. the idea that the ‘consensus ranking’ is that Castro is number 1 seems a little ridiculous considering a slight change in ranking for Tulo by Zimmerman or Reyes by Zach would alter the top 3. The way I read this, there is a clear tier of the top 4 shortstops and all carry significant risk that the drop off between top tier and the next 5-10 SS is not as extreme as other positions. In this way I think SS is a lot like C this year- not as shallow as we’re used to.
Scutaro has SS eligibility in ESPN leagues at least. Based on his 2b ranking, I’d expect him to be somewhere between Simmons and Cozart here. Fair assessment?
I am surprised that Josh Rutledge is so high. He was only a rookie last year, and only played at SS because Tulowitzki was on the DL.
he still has ss eligibility, and is bringing a 2b skill set to that eligibility. It’s certainly possible Rutledge could be a bust and flame out, the consensus ranking here is actually lower than his Steamer projection. He’s a fairly popular sleeper, and I would argue for him over Andrelton Simmons or Evereth Cabrera.
Rutledge was just awful once the league adjusted to him, I’ll personally be passing on him where he has been going.
Troy Tulowitzki easily at 1 for yours truly. Anybody can get hurt & to dock somebody without present concern seems foolhardy.
Eno, It would be cool to add the rankings based on Steamer or at least the dollar value, to see how the projections differ from rankings
Agreed. Until/unless that happens, you can go here and follow the link to the Price Guide to customize values based on Steamer (and other projection systems): http://lastplayerpicked.wordpress.com/2013/01/12/its-alive-price-guide-2013/
(I have no affiliation with any of this. I’m just happy to have to have found a freely-available customizable valuation site.)
Where would Machado slide in if he had SS eligibility? Thanks!
Very confused by some of Sanders’ rankings. Is there a common theme to some of the outrageous placements? ie Butler #3 1B Votto #8. Longoria #7 3B Headley #2. Reyes and Hanley BEHIND Elvis Andrus… is the lesson to avoid a player coming off injuries at all cost?
Butler as #3 1B ahead of Votto makes me sick to my stomach. Same with Hiroyuk Nakajima over Peralta!
He is really hurting Fangraphs’ impeccable credibility. I hope they consider terminating his services.
knocking for injuries seems to be one theme, but… that’s it
“So maybe Castro or wait this year in most leagues?”
I’ll wait. Razzball-Steamer has him 8th among SS for my league, it seems to think his 678 projected PA are a little high.
I have no problem with Castro as possibly the #1, but it seems really weird that you would say “Castro or wait” when you list two Shortstops higher than Castro…