RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings: First Base
Thing might look a little different this year. We’ve got tools upon tools for your drafts this year, and they should be easier to get to now. But we will still do consensus rankings, and we’ll still do tiered rankings. Because it’s all helpful in different ways.
But it’s time for the consensus ranks first.
It’s also worth putting down on ‘paper’ why we do the consensus ranks the way we do them. We have Jeff Zimmerman, Mike Podhorzer and Zach Sanders submitting their individual ranks alongside mine for a couple of reasons. The first is that four is the minimum ‘n’ we can give you: more of a sample should give you a better ranking. It’s like a mini crowd-source. And the second reason is really the same, in an alternate package: each of us uses projections to a different extent, and each of us uses intuition and research to a different extent. And yes, we have the Steamer projection numbers listed here, but no, none of the rankings is solely based on those projections. In any case, you’ll get five numbers to look at, and you can choose which one you like.
To the first basemen!
There’s a lot of consensus near the top of this ranking, but look how quickly it all falls apart. The second half of the top twelve elicited very different opinions from our four rankers. You might be able to see why in the Steamer projections for some of them. Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman and Edwin Encarnacion are all within a couple home runs of each other. But don’t stop looking there, spots 12-24 will probably be owned in most mixed leagues, too. Interesting to see how far the Yankee first baseman has fallen, no?
| RotoG | ES | JZ | MP | ZS | Name | PA | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Albert Pujols | 653 | 0.299 | 99 | 36 | 110 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | Prince Fielder | 649 | 0.292 | 97 | 31 | 103 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | Joey Votto | 629 | 0.298 | 92 | 26 | 87 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 | Billy Butler | 661 | 0.298 | 87 | 24 | 94 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | Paul Goldschmidt | 594 | 0.268 | 78 | 26 | 87 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | 639 | 0.294 | 84 | 27 | 96 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | 558 | 0.265 | 76 | 27 | 85 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 4 | Buster Posey | 538 | 0.302 | 72 | 19 | 77 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 10 | Anthony Rizzo | 622 | 0.267 | 82 | 31 | 94 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 13 | Allen Craig | 546 | 0.290 | 73 | 23 | 79 | 3 |
| 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | Freddie Freeman | 624 | 0.269 | 78 | 24 | 87 | 2 |
| 12 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 18 | David Ortiz | 501 | 0.279 | 70 | 22 | 76 | 1 |
| 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 16 | Eric Hosmer | 606 | 0.267 | 72 | 19 | 76 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 12 | Paul Konerko | 545 | 0.278 | 71 | 24 | 78 | 1 |
| 15 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 11 | Joe Mauer | 533 | 0.299 | 64 | 10 | 60 | 3 |
| 16 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 17 | Ike Davis | 638 | 0.252 | 79 | 30 | 91 | 1 |
| 17 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 14 | Mark Trumbo | 502 | 0.255 | 63 | 24 | 74 | 3 |
| 18 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 22 | Mark Teixeira | 573 | 0.259 | 77 | 27 | 85 | 2 |
| 19 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 21 | Chris Davis | 487 | 0.261 | 61 | 25 | 70 | 2 |
| 20 | 22 | 27 | 20 | 15 | Adam LaRoche | 561 | 0.258 | 68 | 23 | 77 | 1 |
| 21 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 27 | Nick Swisher | 615 | 0.259 | 79 | 23 | 82 | 2 |
| 22 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 28 | Michael Cuddyer | 459 | 0.276 | 57 | 17 | 64 | 6 |
| 23 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 30 | Kendrys Morales | 517 | 0.261 | 62 | 22 | 71 | 1 |
| 24 | 26 | 24 | 31 | 23 | Michael Young | 569 | 0.288 | 63 | 12 | 62 | 2 |
| 25 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 24 | Todd Frazier | 502 | 0.242 | 55 | 19 | 63 | 7 |
| 26 | 32 | 32 | 25 | 20 | Carlos Santana | 549 | 0.247 | 70 | 20 | 71 | 3 |
| 27 | 24 | 20 | 33 | 33 | Brandon Belt | 527 | 0.266 | 62 | 15 | 63 | 9 |
| 28 | 36 | 16 | 36 | 29 | Daniel Murphy | 626 | 0.286 | 75 | 9 | 57 | 6 |
| 29 | 23 | 30 | 27 | 40 | Ryan Howard | 524 | 0.248 | 66 | 26 | 77 | 1 |
| 30 | 38 | 37 | 26 | 19 | Justin Morneau | 464 | 0.266 | 55 | 16 | 59 | 1 |
| 31 | 37 | 19 | 34 | 31 | Dustin Ackley | 699 | 0.241 | 81 | 13 | 58 | 10 |
| 32 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 26 | Garrett Jones | 515 | 0.262 | 61 | 21 | 71 | 3 |
| 33 | 30 | 25 | 35 | 39 | Corey Hart | 481 | 0.259 | 59 | 19 | 66 | 3 |
| 34 | 33 | 29 | 37 | 32 | Yonder Alonso | 589 | 0.255 | 62 | 12 | 65 | 4 |
| 35 | 29 | 38 | 41 | 25 | Adam Dunn | 612 | 0.213 | 78 | 31 | 81 | 1 |
| 36 | 35 | 39 | 29 | 36 | Mike Napoli | 427 | 0.251 | 56 | 21 | 61 | 2 |
| 37 | 28 | 35 | 32 | 46 | Lance Berkman | 446 | 0.273 | 61 | 17 | 61 | 3 |
| 38 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 42 | Logan Morrison | 510 | 0.251 | 58 | 16 | 62 | 2 |
| 39 | 41 | 45 | 39 | 37 | Brandon Moss | 392 | 0.241 | 47 | 17 | 52 | 3 |
| 40 | 39 | 34 | 45 | 45 | Jeff Keppinger | 532 | 0.280 | 62 | 10 | 53 | 2 |
| 41 | 50 | 42 | 46 | 34 | Adam Lind | 387 | 0.260 | 46 | 15 | 51 | 1 |
| 42 | 43 | 44 | 43 | 43 | Mitch Moreland | 357 | 0.262 | 43 | 13 | 46 | 2 |
| 43 | 40 | 40 | 47 | 49 | Mark Reynolds | 531 | 0.225 | 66 | 25 | 70 | 2 |
| 44 | 42 | 49 | 40 | 50 | Chris Carter | 368 | 0.238 | 45 | 17 | 50 | 3 |
| 45 | 50 | 41 | 44 | 55 | Tyler Colvin | 390 | 0.256 | 45 | 15 | 54 | 4 |
| 46 | 50 | 52 | 48 | 47 | Chris Parmelee | 358 | 0.246 | 38 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| 47 | 50 | 43 | 49 | 55 | James Loney | 451 | 0.266 | 48 | 9 | 47 | 2 |
| 48 | 50 | 47 | 51 | 51 | Jordan Pacheco | 323 | 0.275 | 32 | 5 | 34 | 3 |
| 49 | 44 | 48 | 54 | 55 | Carlos Pena | 567 | 0.210 | 67 | 23 | 68 | 2 |
| 50 | 50 | 51 | 50 | 52 | Brett Wallace | 370 | 0.253 | 41 | 12 | 44 | 1 |
| 51 | 45 | 56 | 53 | 54 | Justin Smoak | 331 | 0.228 | 35 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| 52 | 50 | 55 | 52 | 55 | Luke Scott | 338 | 0.237 | 39 | 13 | 42 | 3 |
Others ranked by only one ranker: Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, John Mayberry Jr, Matt Carpenter, Mike Olt and Todd Helton.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
The first column centered would be nice (I know, I’ve got issues). Good luck this year, Fangraphers.
Gracias!
Napoli below Ackley is relatively shocking, Ackley can’t hit and plays in Seattle, Napoli is playing first base in Boston…what am I missing?
Plate appearances
Ackley is only that high becaue JZ ranked him #19 (?!) , the rest have him 30+…
and if anyone is actually trotting Ackley out there as their 1B (or even CI or UT), their fantasy season is pretty much over already.
Ackley has a functioning hip.
He needs two I believe. Are both of Napoli’s bad or just one?
mauer’s ranking continues to amaze me. Especially considering that if I end up with someone like dunn, than i’ve completely negated his strongest area of contribution.
Did Votto steal Zach’s girlfriend or something?
Yeah, a lot of Sanders’ other rankings don’t make much sense either. Posey (catcher in playing in SF) and Butler (Who isn’t in a great position for run production, and could easily end below .290 and 25 HRs) at 3/4. Konerko at 12, and Morneau above Teixeira (!). This is an extremely deep year, where babip and hr/fb luck will separate everyone in the end, but that’s why it really doesn’t make sense that he has guys at high risk positions, in bad ballparks, and weak lineups above others with similar, if not higher upside in better positions.
I can’t tell if you think 12 is too high or too low for Konerko since he is starting to decline and at his age it could be a sudden collapse. No reason at all to expect Butler to hit under .300.
Factored in health concerns into his numbers. On a rate level, he’s where the other folks have him, but I’m just projecting less ABs.
At least on Votto, can you explain health concerns on him vs. Pujols? Both had knee surgery, while Votto is 29 and Pujols is 33.
However it seems like Pujols’s surgery was at the end of the season, so there was nothing for people to panic over for next season.
i suppose, but to drop him all the way to 8th as a result? seems way too far
I think ZiPS projection for Pujols are more accurate and his 2013 season will be slightly better than 2012, but not by much due to age. He is in decline.
As for Votto, I have no clue why projections are so bearish. He was off the charts last season and got injured. But wait…. After his injury he maintained a .408 wOBA without hitting a home run… That is ridiculous. As for power concerns, his HR/FB% was 19% prior to the injury and his FB% was unchanged.
Please tell me this is a badly titled post and other positions the player is eligible for are taken into account in the rankings, otherwise Michael Young over teammate Ryan Howard seems really really weird.
I agree about Young over Howard being off. Once again it was one person who ranked way off the others that put him in a weird place on the list.
I personally think he should be up in the Chris Davis / Nick Swisher area.
The Howard ranking caught me a bit by surprise, especially Zack’s ranking of #40. He’s a flawed asset and one I’m quite bearish on for 2013, but I don’t see much reason to be concerned about playing time, health, or power numbers. A 30 HR, 100 RBI season is quite possible.
Just a quick question: why would anyone take Hosmer over Konerko? I get that Konerko has fewer projected PAs, but he also has more HRs, more RBIs, and a much better projected average, and only loses Rs by 1. Wouldn’t Konerko plus replacement (fantasy-level replacement, not real world) for a few games be worth far more than Hosmer? Or are the authors not going by the projections?
Hosmer runs – 27 SB over the past two seasons! Plus he is much younger, has higher upside, etc.
NBH, thanks. I hadn’t even noticed that, actually. I’m in a replay league (Diamond Mind), so SBs are less important.
Remember, the projections displayed are just for reference. Most of the rankings, including me, create our own projections and values.
Goldschmidt’s elite ranking across all fantasy sites continues to amaze me. I don’t doubt he’ll hit 27HR, but I can’t believe he’ll get anywhere near 18SBs again in ’13 and its clear that a large part of his high valuation.
I just can’t see him worth more than Adrian Gonzalez.
Thanks for the perspective, Zach. I figured that was where you were coming from, as well as the lack of power when he came back last summer. If he answers those questions positively, he is a clear #1 for me.
Likewise….if Berkman ends up healthy, I could see him rising at least 20 spots on this list.
Glad to see Country Breakfast getting so much love this pre-season. Is there a better model of consistency than Butler? Fielder?
I don’t understand the love for Edwin. I’m scared of him as a fantasy player, and will definitely not be drafting him. Why? I’d count last year as an outlier and not one that he can replicate again. 2012 saw a wRC+ nearly 40 points higher than his career average, 16 more homers last year than his previous high, ISO was 70 points higher than his career average, etc., etc. Edwin hit out of his mind last year, but I don’t see the signs that he’s going to be able to replicate anywhere near 2012 numbers. I’d rather take Rizzo, Craig, Posey, Ortiz, Freeman. I’d put Edwin around the 12-15 spot.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1887&position=3B/OF
Seeing the 3B/OF makes me sad because he lost this 3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues 🙁
You are so down on E5, but the guys you list are also risky.
Rizzo could have a sophmore slump.
Craig is injury prone and hasn’t had a full major league season at 29.
Ortiz is old and is coming off an awful injury.
Freeman lacks a ton of power and and strikes out too much.
Edwin has a floor of 85/26/85/.275 with 2012 season upside. A healthy Jose Bautista, Reyes, and Melky in front of him can only help.
Craig is not injury prone. He severely injured his knee running into a wall in mid-2011 and recovery carried over into the beginning of 2012 (after a 3-HR World Series on a bum knee).
None of his 5 minor league seasons games played suggest he was injured at all assuming ~120 games is a full minor league season.
Good piont, GilaMonster. The risks of the guys I listed should be noted. I do think the upside of Edwin is the lineup that surrounds him. I do like the upside of Craig or Rizzo more than Edwin’s, however.
I really enjoy Zach Sanders work, but he is clearly becoming the AJ Mass of RotoGraphs.
These rankings are bizarre. D Murphy over R Howard? C Carter with only 368 PA’s? I could go on, however I’ll leave some meat on the bone for the next guys in line.
The rankings are not based on those steamer projections alone. We each have our own mumbers we ate looking at. Perhaps I should remove the stats if that’s confusing people.
Blast you, Eno, you ate my mumbers again!
“It’s like a mini crowd-source.”
Now that would be a good idea! Hey Fangraphs, can you guys add a way for users to submit their own position rankings, so we can add a FAN column to these consensus rankings?
Yes I love this. Great idea. Not sure it’ll happen this preseason, but I love it.
Couldn’t you just use ADP?
That could work — best ADP for the position is ranked #1, next best ADP is #2, etc. But what site’s ADP would you use? I guess you could use the, um, average of a few sites’ ADPs or something like that.
I would prefer the crowd-sourced approach because it would be Fangraphs-specific… and because I enjoy providing my input to the crowd-sourced features on this site.
I suppose its all about the tradeoff between n and quality of prediction, if you believe that fangraphers, or more specifically, the people who contribute to crowd sourcing on fangraphs are likely to provide much higher quality projections, then it would be worth ignoring all of the ADP data (maybe an average of ESPN and YAHOO?) and sacrificing your larger sample…
ADP is the whole universe, where the fangraphs crowd is generally of different opinions than the average yahoo, espn, or even NLBR/MDC user.
You could approximate this using fVAR against FANS projections, though. A bit more work on the FG end, but the data is already there. But being able to submit our own positional rankings data would be a blast and also go a long way to hinder my productivity even further.
I don’t understand all the Ryan Howard hate this year. Yes, he is in decline and was always just a HR/RBI guy. But he played on one leg last year and still hit 14 HR with 56 RBI in only 71 games. Yes, his K% spiked and his ISO is trending down, but I would probably place him after Swisher.
He is like Adam Dunn without the BB%,Hitters Park, decent offense…..
he’s not as extreme as dunn. The bb% is a concern but outside of OBP leagues hardly matters and these rankings at least generally appear to be 5×5 roto format (although I don’t see that listed anywhere).
CBP is less of a hitters park than US Cellular but is still a hitters park. The Phillies offense is not amazing but should be expected to be somewhere between 2010/11 and 2012. I think Swisher is a decent comp, where Howard is probably a bit riskier but also higher upside.
Ugh, I hate catcher-eligible being listed among 1B (and I will hate Ryan Doumit’s inevitable appearance on the OF rankings). No one is ever sure how to rank them. Are we just ranking them as how they would be playing the 1B position? Are we ranking them as players overall (which is weird, because a big part of their value comes from the lower replacement level hitting of catcher)? Those players should be excluded from other lists.
Yeah, this. I assume position eligibility is being ignored here, because otherwise Posey would be higher, no? I get including them for sake of completeness, and it’s possible that you end up with something weird like Posey, Santana and Ike (sounds like an old tv show) so you would conceivably want to use a catcher as a 1B. Anyway, some clarity there would be appreciated. (And this article is very helpful, especially to a first time drafter like me.)
lol at Daniel Murphy and Dustin Ackley over Mike Napoli