RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 9/17/13
Episode 64
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the debut of another top pitching prospect and a draft strategy to consider for next season.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
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Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 41 min of joyous analysis.
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Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Cashner’s second half swinging strike rate is 9.9%, and in his last five starts it’s 12.0%. Wouldn’t that suggest a K rate that could well be in the 8+ range? His first pitch strike rate in the second half is over 66%, pair those with his 50% GB and he’s looking like a great late round pick next year.
Did you calculate that yourself? I wish our splits pages included SwStk%! 9.9% is solid and suggests a bit higher than his actual K rate was, but it’s not that far above the league average. 12%, that’s another story! I doubt he’ll be available in the late rounds next year. If he finishes with a low 3.00 ERA, he’s going to be the sleeper/breakout who technically already broke out.
While I wish I could take credit for crunching the numbers myself, I used the splits feature on the Padres team page. I do agree, though. It would be nice to have those numbers handy on player pages.