RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 2/3/2015
Episode 189
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer talk about the news topics which include notes on: Mike Moustakas, Brandon Belt, Lucas Duda, Desmond Jennings, John Axford, and Casey Janssen.
Then we jump into our divisional previews, starting with the AL East where we get to Baltimore and Boston today with New York, Tampa Bay, and Toronto on deck for Thursday. We each discuss a hitter and pitcher that we’re interested in from those ballclubs at their current draft costs.
RG work relevant to today’s podcast:
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us (click our names above) or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Thanks to Ian Miller, aka Teen Archer, for the intro/outro music. Approximately 102 minutes of joyous analysis.
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so happy that Paul has joined the podcast!
welcome paul, glad to hear you back in podcasting. any chance Collette will be on future episodes?
He will be with me Sundays!
That’s excellent news! I loved the Baseball Prospectus podcast you two used to do, so I’m really excited for this.
I’d love to see you guys have Doug as a special guest. Eno is an expert on the pitch type numbers. Doug is the expert on the mechanics. Paul has a bit of knowledge of both. It would be a good combo.
Make sure to pick up Paul and Doug’s SP guide guys. Using pitch type stuff and the guide, I ended up with Kluber,Cueto,Cole,Zimmerman, and Teheran among many. If you like pitchers, be absolutely sure to pick it up for your fantasyxor baseball needs. Well worth the money.
I am in no means invested in this. It is a great product and they are great and smart guys. Just promoting a great piece of work I love to read.
Hi Guys. Welcome to the show, Paul. Very much enjoyed your first one. I have a question about the Toronto bullpen for the upcoming podcast on Thursday. Gibbons said on Monday that Sanchez could be their closer if the team doesn’t make a move. (Gibbons also said that the Jays had discussed acquiring Papelbon, K-Rod, or Soriano.) My question is not whether Toronto might make Sanchez their closer, but rather why is everyone so high on Sanchez as a closer? All I keep hearing is that he’d be a “lockdown” closer but that he’d be more valuable as a starter. I know he’s got an excellent fastball with lots of downward movement, but there are so many question marks about him. First, his great stats last year came with a very small sample size. He’s never shown good control in four years in the minors. Despite what many say, he doesn’t miss bats. His Swinging Strike rate was very low at 6.2% — tied for the lowest for any reliever with more than one save. He has very little experience as a reliever or as a closer. Once the league got to know him, his peripherals nosedived, with 7 strikeouts and 6 walks in 11 September innings. (I know this is a very small sample size, but everything Sanchez did in the majors was SSS.)
Cecil, on the other hand, seems like such a better bet. Lower FIP and xFIP than Sanchez. Better K-BB% (20.9% v. 14.9%). Great SwSt% at 16.5%, which was second in the American League, behind only Uehara. (His second half SwSt% led all of baseball at 19.2%, ahead of Kimbrel and Chapman.) Yes, he’s a lefty and Toronto likes him as a setup guy, but he had a reverse platoon split last year, and Toronto’s got Loup as a good setup guy and he’s also a lefty.
If you really want to have a “lockdown” closer, I’d argue that Cecil is a much better bet than Sanchez. I’d go with Loup and a free agent (a Belisario-type) as setup guys, Sanchez as the 5th starter or as a reliever in the 7th and 8th, and Cecil as the closer. And I’d avoid the overpriced “proven closers” (Papelbon, K-Rod, and Soriano). What do you guys think Toronto will do, and, especially, should do? Thanks!
We discuss Toronto on today’s episode! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-audio-the-sleeper-and-the-bust-252015/
Hey Fellas! I just started listening again and it was a great pod cast! The Super Bowl is done so baseball prep officially starts now! I am in a standard 12 team 3 keeper league 21 man roster, but it’s a 6×6 league with ops and QS added. I have a tough decision to make about if I should trade a mid tier draft pick for a keeper or keep Crush Davis or Todd Frazier. I could get any pitcher from ranks 4-10 for a mid pick. My other 2 keepers are Bautista, and Max Scherzer. I also might be able to trade Max for Edwin, thoughts?
Thanks for the input!
I would personally trade Max for Edwin. And then the decision is that mid-pick OR keep one of Crush/Frazier? I know a lot of folks are seeing a Crush rebound but if their costs are the same, I lean Frazier.
I can keep crush or Frazier with no penalty. The other option is to take a mid tier pick and trade for a different option. Usually a pitcher from rank 5-10 are easy to get for a 10th-12th rd pick. Knowing that does it change your answer?
Plenty of time to decide. We can’t talk trade till March 1st so I will keep listening and ask you down the road too.
Thanks Paul!