Roto Riteup: May 4, 2013
In a mere 22 days, Arrested Development will make a triumphant return. In the mean time, the Arrested Development documentary that was released yesterday should be able to hold you over.
On today’s agenda:
1. Neil Walker to the disabled list
2. Drew Stubbs is hitting
3. The return of Jhoulys Chacin
Neil Walker to the disabled list
After sitting out for a week with a hand laceration, the Pittsburgh Pirates placed Neil Walker on the 15-day disabled list. The move is retroactive to April 27 and thus Walker could be back in action as soon as May 12. For those of you looking for a week long replacement at 2B or MI, Ryan Raburn has been tearing it up, or if you happen to play in an NL-only format, Jordany Valdespin has three steals and two home runs on the year. Donovan Solano should be available as well, and while Solano doesn’t figure to contribute many counting stats, his batting average is solid and for a band-aid fix, a two-hole hitting second baseman isn’t bad.
Drew Stubbs is hitting
Yesterday Drew Stubbs smacked a trio of doubles (plus a single) and now has three straight multi-hit games. The recent hot streak has boosted Stubbs’ line up to .284/.340/.420 to go with two home runs and four steals. His .383 BABIP won’t last forever, but in the meantime why not ride the hot hand and grab a few stray steals along the way. He’s only hit ninth this season, so his RBI and runs will be low. Even yesterday — despite getting himself in scoring position three times and on-base four times — Stubbs managed to drive in just one run and score one run himself. Stubbs is available in over 95% of ESPN leagues, 85% of Yahoo! leagues, and 75% of CBS formats.
The return of Jhoulys Chacin
The bad news is that the Colorado Rockies are in the bottom 10 in terms of starting pitchers innings pitched, 27th in starter K%, and 23rd in starter FIP. The good news is that the Rockies are getting Jhoulys Chacin back from the disabled list tomorrow. He is scheduled to make his first start sine April 19 and should help stabilize the Rockies rotation. Chacin’s strikeout rate has dropped each year since 2010, but the projection systems like him to recuperate some of his K’s. His superficial 1.46 ERA is masked by his .221 BABIP and 87.4% strand rate. Expecting a sub 2.00 (or even 3.00) ERA the rest of the season would be naive, but Chacin has flashed the talent to be a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher in the past. Chacin is a stream candidate in most leagues as of right now, however if his strikeout rate bounces back, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to roster him. He is currently available in over 75% of ESPN leagues, 60% of Yahoo! formats and 40% of CBS leagues.
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Great article.
With limited roster spots, would it be better to roster Chacin or stash a guy like Wheeler/Cole/Hultzen? How about Chacin or Brandon McCarthy?
Thank you!
I’d take McCarthy (recent struggles and all) over Chacin. I wouldn’t touch Hultzen, as he’s been suffering from shoulder tendinitis.
I really like Cole and Wheeler, but Cole is still a bit raw for me. Grabbing Wheeler wouldn’t be a bad idea, but with the limited roster space, I still recommend McCarthy.
Between Brandon Belt and Domonic Brown, which hot post-hyper do you like better as a Util/speculative trade-bait add?
Brown. I’m more confident in his hitting ceiling than Belt’s. Replacement level at both 1B and OF is pretty high, but I like Brown more.
Chacin @ StL is better than facing them at home I guess, but I would rather wait and see on his endurance. Someone dropped Beckett and Kennedy in my league. I am trying to jump on Kennedy, then Beckett through waivers. Would you drop Corbin or Hanson to make room for one or both?
Great stuff as always DW.
I would rank them as
Kennedy
*huge gap*
Beckett
Corbin
Hanson
I’m just not a Hanson fan.
I want to target Zobrist for my 2b or McLouth for OF depth (plus his steals) so I can trade one of my other OFs for other needs. I have plenty pitching but I am willing to trade Lohse, Cobb, Masterson, or S Miller (plus a reliever, Perkins, worst case Rivera). What do you think about a SP+Perkins for McLouth/Zobrist? which SP should I trade (I also have felix, waino, cueto,fister, and kuroda so I don’t think I will miss any of those four)?
Well no way is Lohse, Cobb, Masterson, or Miller + Perkins enough to get Zobrist + McLouth. You’d be buying high on McLouth anyways.
In order to get Zobrist, you have to beef up your end of the deal. He is a top 75 player and you would be offering a mid tier closer (about 150ish) and some okay-not-great starters.
If you’re looking for OF help, look to buy low, not high. See if someone like Reddick is available.
thank you for your insight.
Since you mentioned ‘buy low’, is Asdrubal a candidate for that? or that time has passed?
I am thinking of trading Cueto for a package with Zobrist in it. I would like McLouth also but no multi-team trades in fantasy (would be cool if they can add).
I’m not a huge Asdrubal Cabrera fan. I think the price that you’d have to pay to pry him from his current owner will end up being an overpay.
I’d say that Miller(4-2, 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.3 K/9), Cobb(3-2, 2.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.9 K/9), and even maybe Loshe(1-3, 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.9 K/9) are all more than just “okay-not-great” starters…it would seem like Miller has elite ace potential, and the only issue with him is that he could be on an innings limit. Don’t love Cobb and Loshe as much, but I think you’re somewhat undervaluing Perkins as well. His job is one of the safer ones in baseball, and given the Twins weak offense, huge ballpark, and division(Royals, Indians, White Sox are all fairly weak on offense), it would seem likely that Perkins got a fair number of save chances. I’ve also never loved Zobrist quite as much as some.
Going back to yesterday’s post, Marco Estrada just got dropped in my league. Would you drop Brandon Morrow or Andrew Cashner for him? One other thing to consider is that Cashner is getting two starts next week.
Oof. I love Cashner, obviously, but I like Morrow more.
I’d probably rank Morrow, then a toss up between Cashner and Estrada.
Odorizzi worth a pick up in a deep keeper league? Will he contribute this year?
Yes, he is worth grabbing in a keeper league and yes I think we’ll see him in September, earlier if injuries hit the Rays.
I have Angel Pagan and Starling Marte and I’m thinking of trading one for a starting pitcher, with the other one being my second utility player. Which one would you trade and what do you think I could get for either one?
I’ll assume this isn’t a keeper league.
I’d move Marte. The numbers between he and Pagan should be similiar (e.g. a .275+ average with 25+ steals and about 10 home runs) but Marte will carry more name value (read: perceived value). You should be able to get a lot more for Marte given that he is young and a former highly touted prospect.
Should I trade my Scherzer and Daniel Murphy for his Kinsler? I’ve already got Altuve but I could put Kinsler in the 2nd/SS slot
I wouldn’t. I adore Scherzer. Kinsler is great, but given that you already have Altuve, you should be fine at 2B. The value of Altuve + Scherzer + Murphy exceeds Altuve + Kinsler.
what kind of logic is this? Altuve on both sides cancels out (basic math ftw)…
Kinsler easily outvalues Scherzer with Murphy not bringing enough to the table to even it out. Even assuming you value both sides equally, you take the dollar versus 4 quarters.
Kinsler has been a top 50 overall 5×5 guy for the last few years, are you still hanging on to the injury prone stigma?
Thanks for the Bill Simmons quote, re: the dollar versus four quarters.
Kinsler is playing his age 31 season and second basemen age…well, pretty poorly: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/robinson-cano-and-second-base-aging-curves/
Scherzer led all MLB starters with a 29.4% strikeout rate last year and his current K% is even higher than that. He should get plenty of wins with that Tigers offense behind him and while his ERA has never been great, his pitching slash is 3.43 ERA/2.01 FIP/2.18 xFIP.
Basically I’d rather jump ship on Kinsler a year early than a year late. I’m not saying Kinsler will fall off a cliff GUARANTEED, but from the numbers I’ve seen, I’d be looking to sell.
Thanks for the information, I’ve been leaning towards keeping him but this definitely helped solidify that notion. I still don’t understand the gap between his fip/xfip/siera and era, but I do love the strikeouts
Dropping Colby Rasmus for Dom Brown has to be a no brainer, especially for a league that penalizes K’s right? (Everyone’s a keeper in said league.)
Yeah, that seems pretty straight forward to me.
What do ppl think about Walker being droppable in a 10 mixed with an MI spot?
I’d say that’s fine. That is a pretty shallow format, and unless you have a DL/deep bench available, you can feel okay dropping him for now.