Roto Riteup: May 20, 2025
Still in awe over this play.
On the Agenda:
- Closer Chaos
- Quick Hits
- Various News and Notes
- Streaming Pitchers
Closer Chaos
Porter Hodge is going to be placed on the IL with an oblique injury. This is disappointing because Hodge was beginning to take over the closer role in Chicago from Ryan Pressly.
Quick Hits
Reese Olson was placed on the IL with a finger injury. It is being called inflammation, so hopefully it is not too serious. There is no timetable for his return.
Various News and Notes
Jake Meyers went 2-for-3 with a home run and a stolen base in the victory over the Rays on Monday.
Meyers has been quietly really good this season, hitting .301/.368/.426 with three home runs and eight stolen bases in 154 plate appearances. He is making the best in zone contact of his career and and the best O-Swing of his career. He is a great defender, so he will continue to play even when he struggles. He should be rostered in most formats.
Jesus Sanchez went 3-for-5 with a home run and a stolen base in the victory over the Cubs on Monday.
Sanchez has struggled since returning from the IL, but his underlying numbers are better than the surface stats. This might be the beginning of a turnaround and the last chance to buy low on him.
Edmundo Sosa went 4-for-5 with a home run in the victory over the Rockies on Monday.
Sosa has been great, hitting .386/.419/.526. He doesn’t have much power or speed, but he is hot right now. He won’t play every day, but he is a good DFS play versus left handed pitching and can make sense in very deep daily moves formats.
Ramón Laureano went 3-for-4 with a home run in the victory loss to the Brewers on Monday.
Laureano is hitting .272/.327/.543 with six home runs and two stolen bases in 101 plate appearances. He is playing close to every day in Baltimore, but the underlying numbers are not very good which probably means he will fall off at some point. He is usable short term in deeper formats, but there isn’t a ton here for the long term.
Streaming Pitchers (Under 50% in CBS)
Pitcher for Today: Chris Paddack vs CLE
Paddack has pitched well as of late and is facing a Cleveland team that is not very scary.
High Risk Options: Gunnar Hoglund vs LAA, Hayden Birdsong vs KC, Michael Lorenzen at SF, Patrick Corbin at NYY, Zack Littell vs HOU, Bailey Falter vs CIN,
Pitcher for Tomorrow: Logan Evans at CHW
Evans has pitched well since his call up and gets a great matchup.
High Risk Options: Andrew Heaney vs CIN, Chad Patrick vs BAL, Taijuan Walker at COL, Randy Vasquez at TOR.
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Well now I’m just confused. Sporer says start Lorenzen in all formats. Mason says he’s high risk. Start or sit?
Yes, two different people have two different opinions. This isn’t group think.
When these don’t run, where does everyone go for daily recaps?
Razzball
By “the underlying numbers are not very good”, you mean his in-zone contact is down quite a bit and well below league average, right?
Except. . . .
He’s hitting the ball harder than ever and elevating more than ever leading to a career-best barrel rate and hard hit %. So it’s really not surprising that he’s posting good numbers which are actually in line with his xwOBA. Whether it’s sustainable is a fair question because we have a lot of history to go on for Laureano, but what he’s doing is actually totally 100% expected based on his underlying numbers.
You consistently go straight to z-contact to explain everything but I’m just not seeing that it’s terribly indicative of overall performance. Sort all qualified hitters from 2021-2025 and you find quite a few more good hitters at the bottom of the z-contact list than at the top.
There are 312 qualified hitters from 2021-2025 per the FG Leaderboard.
Of the top 30 in z-contact, 14 have wRC+ over 100 and 16 are under 100 with a weighted average wRC+ of 104.9.
Of the bottom 30 in z-contact, 21 are at 100+ and only 9 under 100 with a weighted average wRC+ of 105.7. .
And that’s just at the extremes. Most of the very best hitters are just outside the bottom 30 in worst z-contact and have well-below average z-contact scores.
Schwarber 80.2% z-contact, 133 wRC+
Ohtani 80.3%, 165
Rooker 80.3%, 132
Buxton 80.6%, 134
Olson 80.9%, 136
Tatis 81.0%, 136
Trout 81.1%, 154
Goldschmidt 81.1%, 134
Judge 81.2%, 193
Conversely, I’m not seeing may guys just outside the top 30 in best z-contact that are top hitters:
Yandy 90.3%, 132
Altuve 89.8%, 137
Yordan 89.4%, 160
In fact, you find a much stronger correlation with EV than z-contact. Sort by EV and only one hitter in the top 30 by EV is under 100 (MJ Melendez). Meanwhile, only 6 guys in the bottom 30 by EV are over 100.
You need to start getting past z-contact as your end-all, be-all go-to stat for whether what a guy is doing is sustainable or real. Hitting well comes down to: A) controlling the strike zone and, B) hitting the ball hard, preferably in the air.
(BTW, all the above only applies to hitters. For pitchers, z-contact is a great stat at explaining performance with the best pitchers posting low z-contact numbers and the worst high z-contact numbers)
Justin discovered z-contact sometime in 2024 and it’s now all that he talks about. Like you said, it’s a very small piece of the puzzle for hitters. Personally, I never weight it unless someone is awful.