Roto Riteup: May 16, 2026

The Marlins could spend the rest of the year trying to replicate this and they would never be able to.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers
5. Ottoneu Six Picks

Closer Chaos

Closer chaos is definitely what we had in Pennsylvania Friday night. For the Western Pennsylvanians, the pen imploded. Newly assumed closer Gregory Soto blew his second save of the year, giving up three runs (two earned) on two hits and two walks without a strikeout in an inning of work in the 9th. Previous closer Dennis Santana took the top of the 10th and promptly gave up three more runs (again two earned) on four hits without recording an out, earning his third loss of the season. That probably doesn’t change much for the Pirates. Their statemates, having taken the lead in the top of the 10th, turned to Orion Kerkering, who got his first save. He walked one and struck out one, and allowed the zombie runner to score, in his inning of work. Jhoan Duran worked Thursday and hasn’t gone back-to-back since March 31/April 1.

If you roster Gus Varland, Friday night was a Rorschach test of sorts. Look at it from one angle and they treated him like the closer. Andrew Alvarez had thrown three strong innings and was given a shot to start the 9th up 3-0, but as soon as he got into trouble (a single and a walk to start the inning), the Nats turned to Varland. From another angle, Varland gave up a walk, got a strikeout, then gave up a sac fly to make it 3-1…and got pulled! Richard Lovelady came in and gave up a hit and a walk, allowing another run to score, before finally getting the 27th out with a K, earning his second save. The last six saves for the Nationals have gone to Varland, Lovelady, Varland, PJ Poulin, Poulin, and now Lovelady. Three pitchers, two saves each. Awesome. Lovelady is a lefty and was clearly ready for Gunnar Henderson, so this was probably just a matchup thing. But this pen is probably going to continue to do matchup things. Varland would be my first choice, but this won’t be Lovelady’s last dance.

In a 2-2 game, Jeff Hoffman got a shot to hold the lead in the 9th and failed, giving up a walk and two hits to let the winning run come up. He did strike out two, but those were the only outs he recorded. This has been the Hoffman story – plenty of strikeouts, not pitching poorly, but not getting the job done – with one exception. He didn’t allow a home run, and has now given up just one in his last 10 IP. But he is clearly not ready to take back the 9th. Kenley Jansen also got the 9th in this one, looking to keep the game tied. He threw a perfect inning with a couple of K’s and got his first win as a result.

Trevor Megill got his 5th save and his first in nearly a month. Abner Uribe got the 8th (and his 5th hold) before Megill took the mound. After that last save, Megill had a 25% K-rate, 11.1% BB-rate, with a .409 BABIP leading to a 10.29 ERA, despite a 2.68 FIP (4.49 xFIP). Since that day, he has a 32.3% K-rate, 6.5% BB-rate, and a .263 BABIP, giving him a 2.25 ERA and a 1.36 FIP (2.59 xFIP). He has yet to give up a homer on the season, and now that his luck has leveled out, he might be back on track for another 30 (or close to 30) save season.

Lucas Erceg wasn’t bad, striking out two in an inning of work, but he allowed a couple of singles. That usually wouldn’t hurt a closer, but coming in up one in extra innings, that was more than enough to drive in the zombie runner and give Erceg a blown save. He kept it right there, which allowed him to duck the loss, as the Royals lost in 11.

Tejay Antone got his first save for the Reds, whose bullpen has been a mess recently. Antone now has a 4.50 ERA in 6 IP this year, so he hasn’t been spotless, but given the status of this pen, he is probably worth a pick up, at least for the short term.

Bryan King got his 4th save for Houston, as he continues to keep the seat warm for Josh Hader. It was Hogan Harris’s turn in Sacramento, as he got his third save, in a win over the Giants. And Mason Miller got his 14th save, locking down the Padres win in Seattle. He went 1.1 IP, allowing two hits and a walk. Oh, I almost forgot to tell you how many strikeouts he had, but you already know; 1.1 innings is four outs so he had 4 K, naturally.

Quick Hits

Clay Holmes will be out a while after taking a comebacker off his leg and breaking his fibula.He had been pitching well this year, and this will be a big loss for a Mets team that can ill-afford any more losses. We need to wait for a more detailed timeline, but this won’t be a short absence.

Blake Snell is the latest to fall victim to the loose bodies epidemic that is sweeping MLB rotations. He was scratched Friday and will hit the IL. The team hasn’t confirmed if he will require surgery, but how else do you get rid of loose bodies? Once we know the plan, we’ll know the timeline.

It looked like nothing would stop Byron Buxton, but, of course, his own body eventually got in the way. Buxton sat out Friday with a sore hip flexor. The good news is the Twins expect him back very soon – no IL stint planned. But watch his progress, as we know how things can turn for him.

Logan O’Hoppe, fresh off the IL, left early Friday after aggravating the wrist injury that had put him on the IL to begin with. The team says it is precautionary, so hopefully he is back this weekend.

Various News and Notes

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber combined to go 7-10 with a walk, two homers (both by Schwarber), three runs and seven runs batted in. Not a bad day at the office for the Phillies engine room. That was enough to overcome a disaster outing from Aaron Nola (6 ER in 3.2 IP) and two homers from Brandon Lowe. It’s also worth noting that with Garrett Stubbs behind the plate for Philly, the Pirates stole four bases in five attempts.

Daylen Lile went 3-4 with a double, a homer, 2 RBI and 1 R. He entered play with a 150 wRC+ in May and now has his season line up to 123. Ben Clemens wrote a great piece on Lile back in September and it certainly looks like Lile has picked up where he left off. Lile was basically the only Nat able to do much against Shane Baz, who went 7 IP for the Orioles, striking out four and walking three while allowing three runs on six hits.

Jakob Marsee had a homer and a steal, adding a couple of singles for good measure. Marsee has been a huge fantasy disappointment this year, but now has two homers and three steals in the last week. I am not a believer, but perhaps we are seeing the start of a better run for him. Sadly, his efforts went for naught as Janson Junk got lit up – 7 ER on 10 H in 5.2 IP – putting the Marlins in a hole that Marsee could not pull them out of.

While Munetaka Murakami has stolen the headlines, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery – both of whom homered Friday – have been excellent, as well. Montgomery is up to 12 HR and a 135 wRC+, while Vargas has 10 HR and a 142 wRC+. Forced to pick one, I think Vargas is the more sustainable of the two, but I like them both. I expect Montgomery to fall off more, but he can fall pretty far while still being incredible productive.

Spencer Arrighetti took a no-no into the 8th before giving up his first hit. It wasn’t a perfectly clean evening – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, but 4 BB – but it was definitely a good start. Arrighetti’s 12 whiffs aren’t bad, but that’s hardly elite swing-and-miss stuff, and the walk rate continues to be a problem. His FIP (3.65) points to some expected BABIP and LOB regression. His xFIP (4.65) points to some HR/FB regression. And his xERA (5.38 entering play Friday) suggests the BABIP and HR/FB regressions could hurt. I think Arrighetti is a sell high.

Maybe Ildemaro Vargas will never stop hitting. He went 4-5 Friday with a couple runs and a couple runs batted in, and yes it was Coors, but still! What is up with this guy? Maybe more impressive was his teammate, Merrill Kelly 켈리, who got his third win with a complete game. At Coors! He gave up just one run on four hits. He only had three strikeouts, and I suspect no one started him. Who would start a guy with that ERA in that park?

Two pitchers who had given fantasy managers pause recently showed out in Seattle Friday. Randy Vásquez went six shutout innings, allowing four hits and striking out three without a walk. That was just enought to outdo Emerson Hancock, who also went six, but gave up one more walk, one more hit, and one more run than Vásquez. Hancock struck out six. This was a pretty favorable environment for both pitchers (cold night in a pitcher’s park), but they were both impressive. I still like both, but both will likely continue to be up-and-down.

Streaming Pitchers

Streamers are under 50% rostered on CBS.

Pitcher for Today: Cade Cavalli (WAS, 41%) vs. Baltimore

I like a lot of what we have seen from Cavalli this year, and I think he has a good one tomorrow.

Other options: Connor Prielipp (MIN, 31%) vs. Milwaukee

Pitcher for Tomorrow: No one.

If you really want to force me to make a pick, Grant Holmes vs. Boston or Roki Sasaki vs. Anaheim are viable options, but I don’t love either.

Ottoneu Six Picks

A new addition to my Roto Riteups will be sharing my Ottoneu Six Picks lineups. You can read more about Six Picks here but the concept is simple: six lineup spots (C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP); $120 to fill those six spots; Ottoneu FanGraphs Points scoring. The only thing to keep in mind: Your SP will only score points if he starts and your RP will only grab points if he relieves. So no grabbing an RP-eligible player slated to start today.

Here is my Saturday lineup:

• Hunter Goodman ($11.50) – Hard to pass him up against a LHP at home.
• Nick Kurtz ($22.50) – The weather is warming up in Sacramento. Plus this is a good excuse to mention that he hit a big HR Friday night.
• Ketel Marte ($32.00) – In Coors, against Sugano, think it is time for a Marte Partay.
• Kyle Schwarber ($43.75) – Schwarber is hitting everything right now and Bubba Chandler has been awful. As an added bonus, I need Chandler to get going for one of my teams, so maybe this will be a reverse jinx on him?
• Logan Henderson ($0.50) – There are more obvious choices, but I am going to save the cash for the offense, as I think Henderson will have a nice day, especially if Buxton gets one more day off.
• Cade Smith ($7.25) – If the Guards can bounce back, he’ll have a nice outing.