Roto Riteup: May 14, 2015
Congratulations to Juventus! After dispatching Real Madrid they now get the honor of most likely getting crushed by Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League final. They could certainly upset Barca, however it’d take a herculean effort from the Italian club.
On today’s agenda:
1. Justin Turner, starting third baseman?
2. Marlon Byrd heats up
3. Bad news for Drew Smyly
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Justin Turner, starting third baseman?
While I’d personally prefer to see Alex Guerrero get the job, Turner has received the bulk of the starts at the hot corner lately. His manager Don Mattingly had some interesting comments to the Orange County Register regarding the third base situation. The Los Angeles Dodgers skipper told the OCR he has no set plan at third as Guerrero and Turner have pushed Juan Uribe from the starting role. Turner has appeared in 14 games at the hot corner against Guerrero’s seven, though both have appeared at other defensive positions as well. Turner profiles as posting the higher batting average going forward, but Guerrero holds a significant power advantage. As both are riding hot streaks it’s hard to say which is the favorite, Turner appears to have the inside track at third. He is available in more than 80 percent of Yahoo! or CBS leagues and over 95 percent of ESPN formats.
Marlon Byrd heats up
After an opening month where Byrd posted a .169/.188/.273 line, he has crushed the ball in May. Prior to yesterday’s 1-for-3 performance with a home run and a walk, he owned a .303/.455/.758 line this month. Small sample size issues aside, Byrd has managed to rediscover his power stroke as he has five home runs this month and seven on the season. His 12:36 walk to strikeout rate isn’t ideal, but for a cheap power hitting outfielder, Byrd shouldn’t be overlooked. Factor in his friendly home park plus being moved to the No. 2 spot in the lineup in recent games and Byrd should be picked up in most leagues and is a solid budget pick in DFS. He’s owned in less than 50 percent of the three major fantasy sites despite the hot hitting. As a side note, I can’t hear Byrd’s name without thinking of Bird from The Wire, particularly the scene with Omar in court (warning: language).
Bad news for Drew Smyly
The Tampa Bay Rays may lose Smyly for the season in the wake of a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He is yet to make a decision on whether or not he’ll undergo surgery or attempt rehabbing it, but he’s probably done for 2015 either way. Here’s to hoping he has a speedy and full recovery, regardless of which option Smyly decides to go for.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Travis Wood vs NYM (Jon Niese)
The New York Mets have hit a touch below league average against southpaws thus far. Combine that with Wood showing an uptick in his swinging strike rate and K%, this makes for a favorable at home match-up for him. One can stream Wood in more than 50 percent of CBS formats and more than 80 percent of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Chase Anderson at PHI (Chad Billingsley)
As per wRC+, Philadelphia is the worst offense in baseball when facing a right-hander. Anderson is available in 68 percent of CBS leagues and over 85 percent of Yahoo! or ESPN formats.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
hey David, how do you feel about Delino DeShields Jr?
Not David, but my 2 cents on DeShields is he is much like Billy Burns where if he can continue to be somewhat competent against MLB pitching and find a way on base he will rack of the steals since he can fly on the bases. Martin’s wrist injury has given him a clear path at playing time over the last week or so and it sounds like Martin will sit out the rest of this week before (hopefully) coming back next week.
I know some Rangers media have speculated that DeShields and Martin could end up as a mini-platoon in CF, with Martin starting against RH’s and DeShields starting against Lefties. Not sure that will happen, but he is a nice steal “streamer” for the next 5 days or so since he will be starting in CF and could easily steal a week’s worth of bases for owners in a matter of days.
What scares me about DeShields long terms both this season and going forward is that his .407 BABIP is due to regress and can be avoid completely cratering at the plate where a lot of questions still surround him.
Agreed, Mike W. I kinda feel also DeShields Jr is similar to Turner-they will get their ABs but won’t really be full-time guys.
I just picked him up in one of my fantasy leagues while he’s hot, I mean, why not, right? He and J Turner will regress, they aren’t this good.
DeShields is definitely worth a shot if you need steals in the short term. I probably like Burns a bit more than him, just because I could see Burns beating out Sam Fuld for a starting job before DeShields can beat out Martin (provided Martin is healthy), but like you said it makes sense to run with him until he cools off.
Also something to keep an eye on – with the presumed addition of Hamilton into the Rangers outfield soon, there has been some talk of keeping DDJ in the lineup at 2B with the demotion of Odor. Not the worst idea, either.
Sorry I’m late to this! I wrote him, and two other speedsters, up in yesterday’s AL OF slot
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/searching-for-speed-among-american-league-outfielders/
I think Guerrero will eventually grab hold of those 3B at-bats, at least a majority of them. Mattingly seems to be putting him into the line up more and more and seems to be trusting him more, something that wasnt as apparent even a couple weeks ago.
I actually think the real loser outside of Uribe, could be Jimmy Rollins. With his continued struggles, I could see Turner taking a few starts a week away from Rollins if the Dodgers choose to sacrifice some defense at SS in exchange for more offense. I thought Rollins would maintain solid mixed league value this year at SS, providing me with 15+ steals and 10+ HR’s while hitting at the top of a good Dodger offense. He looks washed up right now though and while I doubt he completely looses the job, I think Turner and his solid average and occasional pop could steal some starts away from him which would benefit Guerrero.
I think eventually C Seager will swat one of them aside (Uribe/Rollins).
I sure hope so. Corey Seager has been sitting on my prospect bench for two years.
David: sorry, but you’re right about Juventus’ chance of hoisting the Champions League trophy. Nice job by Juventus in eliminating Real Madrid, but Barca’s combination of Messi, Suarez and Neymar is too much for anybody to overcome. They just dispatched a very good Bayern Munich team. I expect Juventus to try to make it come down to a shootout—apart from an injury to one of the Big Three, that’s really their only chance.
I think Turner is over is head defensively at short, so I’m not sure if he takes too much playing time from Rollins. Of course, with the Dodgers ability to score eight runs per game, defense may not matter much.
And yeah, Seager will be “the guy” fairly soon at short no matter what. Rollins is a FA after this season and despite Seager’s struggles in Triple-A, I’m not worried about him just yet.
Is Nate Karns starting to enter mixed league/standard league discussion yet? Outside of a couple of bad starts in April against Baltimore and Boston, he has been really good and has shown nice swing and miss stuff. With Cobb and Smyly now out the rest of the year, he is pretty much guaranteed a rotation spot even when Moore comes back in a few weeks. Is his control still a concern or are you ready to buy in?
if you need help, why not? I picked him up as a streamer a few times.
Yep, I’ve streamed him a few times myself. The walk rate is a tough pill to swallow in WHIP leagues, but the K’s are nice. Just watch out for his .224 BABIP regressing.
Between guys playing with fire in regards to their BABIP, who do you like the most going forward between Karns, Ubaldo or Jesse Chavez?
Right now I am leaning towards Chavez due to the park factors and the surge in his strikeout rate.
Chavez, he has the least volatile history.
David: Strasburg and Gio have been rocked this week in my 16 team points league. Still have Hughes, Richards and Shoemaker to try and make up some of the lost ground, but am I crazy to reach for Estrada, Mr. Gopher Ball, as a streaming option vs. the Astros this weekend?
The Astros pound lefties but only have a 99 wRC against RHPs. Estrada could be good for a few points?
Who are some of your other options. Estrada is just too risky for my tastes, now I admit he could easily strike out 7 or 8 Astros and twirl a decent game, but with Springer back and the power bats the Astros have in the likes of Gattis….I would be nervous Estrada is the type of pitcher that could easily get scuffling hitters like Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena back on track.
Jerome Williams and Jason Marquis and that’s about it. I’ll just have to hope that Trevor May and Shane Greene don’t blow up on me from my other starts. My matchup opponent has already picked up Estrada for a price I wasn’t willing to pay. Have to make decisions by 10:59 AM on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.
But thanks for the advice.
I’d sit Estrada. He’s too prone to gopheritis for my tastes right now.
DUHH DUH — DUHH DUH — DUHH DUH
Wiers lost to me yesterday in a bet on DFS/streaming SP. Nate Karns beat out his precious Wade Miley.
THIS CONCLUDES OUR TEST OF THE EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM.
Zach “The Worst” Sanders, everybody!
Enjoy your beer. I hope it tastes like spite and disdain.
I’ve got to make a decision between Byrd, Granderson, and Shin Soo-Choo…..I can have 2 of the 3. Which would you pick and why?
Granderson because I like his leadoff spot and I think his improved walk rate is legit. Getting on base more as a leadoff man is never a bad thing, and he may run a bit more. Last year he did hit leadoff some, but was shuffled around the lineup quite a bit. With a pretty firm grasp on it this year I hope to see him run some more.
Byrd as well, as I like his power and home park combination, unless it is an OBP league.
I like Choo the least (again unless OBP or points league) because his walk and strikeout rates are still headed in the wrong directions, and have been for three seasons in a row.
On the topic of Outfielders, who do you think ends up carrying for value the rest of the year, Steven Souza who has shown a nice power/speed combo with a bad Batting Average or Melky Cabrera who has been so solid the past few years, but like a lot of the Chicago offense is off to a terrible start?
Souza for counting, Melky for rate stats.
Oh, I misread.
Give me Souza over Melky, but it’s close.
I also saw a comment on Karns. Would you take Karns, Heston, or Buccholz?
Buccholz > Heston > Karns
I’ve been using a patchwork of Gennett (vs RHP) and Lawrie (vs LHP) at 2B. Drop Lawrie for Turner?
Yeah I think so.
Thanks. Got Lawrie a couple of weeks ago in a trade (12-team mixed with minor-league keepers): sent Sandoval and R. Castillo and got Choo, Volquez, Lawrie, and Severino.
Can you rank these keepers for me- Bryant, Buxton, and Castillo?
Assuming standard 5×5?
That order looks right to me.
Bryant’s power is more valuable than Buxton’s speed in my opinion. I like Castillo, but both Bryan and Buxton should hold quite a bit more fantasy value.
It’s actually 7X6. R, HR, RBI, AVG, OPS, TB, and SB.
Hey David, who would you drop first (I want to pick up Kang): AJ Ramos, Axford, Tony Watson, Archie Bradley. It is a points league, so I don’t necessarily need a SP or RP more than the other since there is no saves category, etc. Thanks a lot.
Axford for me. Pitching here at Mile High is the overriding factor.
Axford looks like the guy to let go.
All right, thanks a lot to both of you!