Roto Riteup: March 21, 2013
Today is Thursday, and that means tomorrow is Friday, which means the day after tomorrow is Saturday. Feel free to daydream about the near future while reading today’s Roto Riteup.
On today’s agenda:
1. Samuel Deduno and roto rotations
2. Shaun Marcum’s already hurt
3. Tons Of Projections
Samuel Deduno and roto rotations
Deduno is getting major press recently for his impressive stint as a member of the WBC champion Dominican Republic. Deduno pitched to an ERA under 4.50 last year as a member of the Twins despite a FIP that scored over a full run higher. During the WBC, Deduno had an ERA below one to go along with an impressive 17/5 K/BB ratio, and his outstanding performance may have vaulted him into the Twins starting rotation. Even if the Twins believe in a new and improved Deduno doesn’t mean you should. Let some other owner waste a roster spot on the 29-year-old, regardless of league format.
Shaun Marcum’s already hurt
You heard that right, folks, the Mets’ right-hander is already experiencing injury problems. Marcum received a cortisone shot in his throwing shoulder. Marcum should still be effective when on the field, but no owner should be expecting more than 150 innings from the 31-year-old in any given year.
Tons of Projections
Over the past two weeks or so, I’ve been published a few of my fantasy projections each day, whether it be in the Roto Riteup or on Twitter. Since most of you will have already drafted after this weekend, I’m putting the pedal to the metal and giving you much more projections than usual.
• Sean Burnett, RP, LAA: 55 IP, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 43 K
• Max Scherzer, SP, DET: 195 IP, 15 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 206 K
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS: 18 HR, 100 R, 85 RBI, 20 SB, .290 BAVG
• Wade Davis, SP, KCR: 180 IP, 12 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 130 K
• Phil Coke, RP, DET: 55 IP, 5 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 47 K
• Brett Jackson, OF, CHC: 9 HR, 35 R, 35 RBI, 8 SB, .220 BAVG
• Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI: 25 HR, 50 R, 75 RBI, 0 SB, .235 BAVG
• Rick Porcello, SP, DET: 180 IP, 9 W, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 110 K
• Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA: 14 HR, 65 R, 50 RBI, 16 SB, .260 BAVG
• Jared Burton, RP, MIN: 60 IP, 5 SV, 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 47 K
• Trevor Plouffe, 3B/OF, MIN: 24 HR, 60 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB, .240 BAVG
• Casey Janssen, RP, TOR: 60 IP, 25 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 57 K
• Chris Tillman, SP, BAL: 150 IP, 12 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 125 K
• Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE: 16 HR, 65 R, 65 RBI, 5 SB, .265 BAVG
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Jeez, I thought Porcello’s projection would be at least slightly more optimistic? At least I’m not the only one optimistic on Plouffe.
Ryan Howard has become so underrated IMO. I know the negatives that come with him. He’s old, he cant hit lefties or breaking pitches, and he strikes out way too much. I know his production has been on the decline and hes basically still coming off a major injury. But I find it interesting that guys like Tulo, Longoria, Kemp, etc all get free passes for the most part when it comes to injuries, yet Howard gets bumped down like 10 rounds? For the 3 seasons prior to last year(2009-2011), Howard averaged .270, 91 runs, 36 HR, 122 RBI, and 3 SB…talking about a guy who hit at least 31 HR and had at least 108 RBI for 6 straight years….and even last year, his 575-AB pace would have put him around 30-32 HR and 125 RBI…im not saying hes a good baseball player anymore by any means, and as a Phillies fan, his contract makes me wanna puke…but regardless of that, hes still going to produce elite counting numbers IMO, even if it does come with a .250 average. I think .235 is just ridiculous quite frankly. The guy is a career .271 hitter and has only hit under .250 once in his career(last year). And he’s only going to score 50 runs? After scoring over 100 3 times in 6 years, and never scoring less than 81 in a full season?
Runs/RBI totals are low because I don’t think he’ll stay healthy all year.
Completely agree. This is pure value where he’s being drafted at. There’s no reason to expect him to get hurt any more than there’s reason to expect Longoria, Zimmerman or Wright to get hurt.
Buy talent and don’t try to predict injuries.
Does your projection of Porcello mean you think he will hold a starting spot all year (vs. Smyly) or just operating under the assumption for the sake of projection?
Whether it be in DET or elsewhere, I see him holding down a job.
Is there a one stop shop where I can find all of your projections under one roof?
Nope. The one’s I’ve been posting are on my recent Roto Riteups, and on my twitter feed.
This is the first year I’ve been formally posting any at all. Maybe a full sheet is something to look forward to next season.