Roto Riteup: August 9, 2015
This morning’s Roto Riteup is disturbed by local weather reports suggesting it will be back in the high-80s in the middle of next week.
On today’s agenda:
1. Welcome Back, Stephen Strasburg
2. Various news and notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options
Welcome Back, Stephen Strasburg
Strasburg’s 2015 has been quite the disappointment, what with a 5.16 ERA before heading to the DL in early July with an oblique injury. Strasburg returned last night and destroyed the Rockies over seven innings, striking out 12 and walking none. The Rockies aren’t a top tier lineup, but seeing Strasburg turn in his best start of the year immediately after returning from the disabled list is a great sign. Strasburg is scheduled to face the Giants next time out before seeing the Rockies again, only the next time will be in Denver. It’s probably too late to buy low on Strasburg, but consider giving it a shot anyway.
Various news and notes
In another career setback, Padres starter Brandon Morrow will undergo shoulder surgery, ending his season. Morrow got through all of 33 innings this year, but looked good doing so. Morrow has pitched just 120 innings over the past three years, and with shoulder surgery likely dampening his velocity, his time as a starter is probably over.
Sticking with the theme of injury prone pitchers, Jaime Garcia has been awesome this year and turned in another solid start last night. Garcia may have walked four, but he did not allow a run against the Brewers and his ERA is now a sparkling 1.77 through 10 starts this year. Jaime’s BABIP is down to .218, though, and over his career it generally sits around .300. Moving towards a more extreme GB% will help keep his BABIP a little lower, but there’s still some not-so-fun regression coming soon.
Francisco Liriano only made it through three innings yesterday after tweaking something in his non-throwing arm while batting. Liriano is expected to make his next scheduled start.
Preston Tucker hit another homer last night, bringing his total up to 11 over 259 plate appearances. His younger brother is a better prospect, but Tucker is fitting into the majors just fine.
Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Mike Fiers at OAK (Chris Bassitt)
Fiers in a big ballpark against a poor lineup? Yes please.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Jonathon Niese vs COL (Jon Gray)
In case you hadn’t noticed, Niese has been excellent recently.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Start Estrada in a deep league (16 teams)? Points. I have Shoemaker also.
Must win matchup or I’m out of the playoffs. Opponent has Lackey, Colon, and Quintana going. I have a 67.8 point lead.
I’m a bit nervous that Estrada flyball tendencies might hurt me since the start is going to be in Yankee Stadium with that short RF porch.
Thanks for advice from anybody.
Never mind. Shoemaker’s start has been pushed forward to Tuesday.
I have no choice but to start Estrada and hope he gets a ton of run support. And I had to add Jerome Williams, just in case Estrada’s start goes poorly. Unhappy choice but at least the Pads are one of the lowest scoring teams when playing at home.
“there’s still some not-so-fun regression coming soon.”
No. If you flip a coin five times and it comes up heads all five times, you are not “due for regression,” the odds of the next head are still 50-50. Or maybe you start to suspect that the coin is rigged…
He may have done well recently because he’s been getting lucky, but that doesn’t mean he’s due for some bad luck.
…this is absolutely not how probability works.
Maybe there should be some not-so-fun web searches coming soon.
Chris Coghlan is getting his third start at 2B today, as Maddon seems to be working on turning him into a Zobrist-type guy (and making room for Schwarber in LF)
Taking a quick browse through the list of 2B’s, I’m not seeing a bunch of guys with double-digit HR’s and SB’s….which is what Coghlan will be when/if he gets that eligibility. And he’s been seeing a bunch of time in the middle of the lineup recently too.
I could see him being relevant in 12 team standard and larger leagues. Looking through the second baseman I probably have him just outside the top 12 guys, but I think he could leap into that Joe Panik, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker territory.
Yeah, it’s not a “pounce immediately” type of situation, especially because he doesn’t even have the eligibility yet. But 2B/MI is one of those positions where people are almost always looking to improve.
One thing working against Coghlan though is that while he’s starting at 2B, he’s getting yanked for a defensive replacement in the later innings. So that’s going to cost him a not-insignificant amount of at-bats.
That and lets face facts, Joe Maddon can be a pretty frustrating manager for fantasy purposes. Not knocking him, I think he is a really good real-life manager, but Hector Rondon owners can attest to the fact that unless you are an Anthony Rizzo/Kris Bryant level player he can be a bit unpredictable.
Furthermore, if Starlin Castro gets a hot streak together (a big if at this point), Coghlan would likely become a bench/platoon player.