Roto Riteup: April 12, 2019
We stay committed here at the Roto Riteup!
Nothing and we mean NOTHING is stopping this determined ball dude from getting this foul ball. pic.twitter.com/SH44UrTlx9
— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 12, 2019
On the Agenda:
1. Peter Alonso
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers
Peter Alonso
Peter Alonso went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and a walk against the Braves on Thursday night.
Unmatched power. 😳 #Crushed pic.twitter.com/aAfTpX9zQK
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 12, 2019
The 24-year old rookie is now slashing .378/.451/.911 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, and 10 R in 51 PA. His 16/6 K:BB ratio is something you can live with (30% K/11% BB). It’s also consistent with his track record in the minor leagues as well (26% K/11% BB at Triple-A Las Vegas). The most impressive aspect of his game has been his power. He has always possessed mammoth pop – as cited by his 36 HR and .280 ish ISO between two levels in 2018. He does an amazing job of spraying the ball to all fields and displays a solid, mature approach as well. Alonso is currently tied for third in home runs, 16th in average exit velocity (94.8), third in hard-hit% (66.7), and second in Barrels/PA (21.7%). The home run he hit last night was the hardest hit home run by any Mets players since 2015. All-in-all, we all discredited Alonso at draft time (227 ADP) because he’s a rookie who saw a drastic downtick in contact rate in the upper minors last year, while also having a few question marks about his playing time and when he’d come up. Not only did he start the season in the majors, but he’s hitting second and flourishing. I’m not going to take less than a month’s worth of data and give a take one way or the other here, but what he’s done so far is well within reason based on his accomplishments in the minor leagues. Some fantasy players may think this is a fluke (I’m not one of them), and try to sell high. I would not condone doing that. If you own him, stand pat and see what at least the next month brings, then move on from there. If you’re looking to acquire Alonso, you’ll probably have to pay too big of a price to make it worth your while. With that said, if you can give up someone outside the top-100 preseason, I’d be willing to consider that depending on the player. I think a fair projection for Alonso from this time forward is somewhere around .255/.340/.570 with 20 HR, but admittedly that could be low. Only time will tell, but he’s been nothing short of exciting to watch nonetheless.
Various News and Notes
The Braves and Ozzie Albies agreed to a contract extension per Ken Rosenthal and Joel Sherman.
Joel with the terms… https://t.co/zFnh3k0ef1
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 11, 2019
Well, the only thing I can really say is that this is wild. The Braves get a massive bargain here, and they now potentially control the 22-year old through the 2027 season. A little over a week ago, Randal Grichuk agreed to a $52 million deal with the Blue Jays over five years……Yeah, that Randal Grichuk. I’m not going to begin to speculate why this was agreed upon on Albies side, but the positive outlook is that he guarantees a fortune for himself. It might not be as much as he’s potentially worth, but $35 million is $35 million.
Mark Bowman of MLB.com (ATL) gave us an update on Mike Foltynewicz:
Folty will make one more rehab start Monday. He got his pitch count up by throwing in the pen after ending Tuesday’s rain-interrupted start. But Snit wants him to throw close to 90 pitches in uninterrupted fashion before being activated
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) April 11, 2019
So far, Folty has allowed 2 ER over 8.2 IP (2.08 ERA) spanning two rehab starts. He’s struck out seven and walked three as well. If he’s activated after the next rehab outing on Monday, we should see him on either April 20th or 21st. He needs to be picked up in places he was dropped.
#Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz says he's healthy again: "All of my off-speed pitches are coming out well." pic.twitter.com/sQqNU9zRU7
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) April 11, 2019
Corey Seager is day-to-day after exiting Thursday’s game against the Cardinals in the fourth inning. He was hit in the leg by a Giovanny Gallegos offering. The diagnosis is a “hamstring contusion.”
Dave Roberts & @alannarizzo discuss Walker Buehler's rough 2nd inning and the latest on Corey Seager. #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/NwXquSoQUo
— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) April 11, 2019
Nick Castellanos was scratched from yesterday’s lineup, and is currently day-to-day with a sprained right big toe.
Nick Castellanos was scratched from today's starting lineup with a right toe injury, according to the Tigers.
— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) April 11, 2019
This doesn’t sound overly serious, but we have to monitor how things go here. The Tigers lineup was already dead last in RPG, and this doesn’t help things.
Billy Hamilton is currently day-to-day with a left knee sprain after colliding with the center field wall on Thursday against the Mariners.
Billy Hamilton looks pretty hurt, they're bring the cart out…#DrDonkeyDick pic.twitter.com/UUObz8YdTn
— DonkeyTeeth (@DonkeyTeeth87) April 11, 2019
Hamilton was trying to make a nice play on a ball in centerfield in the top of the ninth, but was unable to make the catch. He collided with the wall pretty hard and was in obvious pain. He only has two stolen bases thus far, but fantasy owners are only using him for that sole purpose. If he seems effected by this once he returns, then it may be best to cut bait even in deeper formats if you have other needs.
Max Muncy suffered a hand injury against the Cardinals on Thursday, eventually leaving the contest.
Max Muncy (hand) removed from Thursday's game https://t.co/00ezGgOfbe via @GarettThomas #fantasybaseball
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsMLB) April 11, 2019
Chris Taylor replaced him and would receive an uptick in playing time should Muncy miss any time.
Streaming Pitchers (Less Than 50% Owned)
A Pitcher for Today: Michael Pineda vs DET
Pineda’s been keeping things on the ground, getting a ton of whiffs, starting ahead in the count, and posting strong results thus far. The Tigers offense is dead last in RPG so far. It’s a match made in heaven.
High-Risk Option: Trent Thornton vs TAM
I obviously don’t love choosing a starter against my squad, but Thornton has had a stellar first two starts, and blanketed under all of the success is a league-average Rays offense. They have the propensity to strike out as well, and Thornton has 15 K in 11 IP with a 12% Swing-Str%.
A Pitcher for Tomorrow: None
High-Risk Option(s): Merrill Kelly vs. SD
Kelly allowed 3 ER in 6 IP at Petco Park on April 1st, and rebounded to the tune of 1 ER in 8 IP with 9 K and 0 BB against the Red Sox on April 7th. The Padres are 21st in wRC+ against RHP in the early going.
Caleb Smith vs. PHI
Smith gets the benefit of pitching at home, where he owns a 3.51 career ERA (5.98 ERA on the road). Smith has a 15/3 K:BB ratio in 11 IP (2 GS) thus far. If he can keep the ball in the yard (2 HR allowed against ATL last time out), then he has a chance to be successful. FWIW, the Phillies are slightly below league average against LHP thus far according to wRC+ rankings. With that said, they lead the league in K% against LHP as well (12%). This is very risky, but I believe in Caleb Smith.
Fantasy Baseball and Tampa Bay Rays enthusiast. Restaurant manager by day, fantasy analyst by night. Contributor to Rotographs, Baseball HQ, Fantasy Pros, and co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits. Follow me @MikeWernerFWFB.
Pete Alonso has made it clear that he prefers not to be called Peter. We should respect that, just like we do with Michael Trout, Christopher Sale, and Matthew Carpenter (et al.). I don’t blame him…
Honestly didn’t know that. I’ll stick to “Pete” from now on.
In re Peter Alonso, 20 HR the rest of the way with a .255 avg would only get him to maybe a .450 SLG … to get to a .570 SLG in 500 more at bats with a .255 average would be more like 40 more doubles and 40 more HR … right? Point being, 20 more HR and a .570 SLG are not consistent
Was going to post the same thing. The projection systems all have him with 25-27 HR and a ~.500 SLG the rest of the way. If you assume 500 PA, .255 BA and a 10% BB rate, he would have 114.75 hits and would need 256.5 TB to get to .570. So something like 36 HR, 36 2B and 42 1B would be 258 TB. . . . .
EDIT*** Did occur to me that maybe .570 is a typo and he meant .510 which would make more sense, though he would probably still need a few more than 20 HR to get there with a .255 BA
I think it is likely supposed to read .470, not .570. The 20 HR would also make Mike the low-man on Alonso RoS when compared to the Fangraphs projection systems.
Definitely meant .570…..As far as the projection I went very light because he’s a rookie and he’s striking out a ton. Have there been other rookies with a 30% K that have been successful? Sure. Maybe the average is good but the home runs end up surpassing 20 (I think that’s likely). Maybe he surpasses both, I suppose we’ll see.
The .255/.340/.570 slash line with 20 HR doesn’t jive. The slash line is basically Khris Davis or better, and that is what we are pointing out. A .315 ISO is elite and would probably give him another 40 HR RoS even if he bats .200 like Joey Gallo. Do you think he’s going to hit .255/.340/.470 with 20 HR, or .255/.340/.570 with 40 HR? High strikeouts or not, mathematically it can’t be a combination of the two unless you’re predicting an injury.
I wasn’t doing math at all. Probably part of the problem on my end. How about this, I think is final slash line—stats to date included—will be in the vicinity of .260/.340/.515 with 30+ HR and 90 ish RBI.
RE: rookies with 30% K.
– 2017 Aaron Judge went 284/422/627 with a 30.7% K rate.
– 2015 Kris Bryant went 275/369/488 with a 30.6% K rate
It can be done. I’m not saying Alonso will be as good as either of those, but his early numbers also don’t make either of those scenarios seem improbable either.
Yeah, I’m not really worried about the 30% K. I’m just not going to automatically put him in a pool with Judge and Bryant after 50 PA. Could be end up in their area by the end of the year? Sure. But the season is long and full of adjustments (That just made me think of the old “Lord of Light” reference, “The night is dark and full of terrors”). He’s gonna be a solid player, and I’m personally very excited about him.
Isn’t Pineda’s start vs. the Tigers PPD today?
Replacement options for Pineda would be Corbin Burnes and Drew Pomeranz if available.
*post deleted because it was a repeat of mr_hogg’s*
.570 SLG might be low for Alonso? In 2018 only four qualified hitters reached that mark