Revisiting My 2014 Spring K% Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates

Back in late March of 2012, Matt Swartz helped me conclude that pitcher strikeout and walk rates in spring training actually do matter. We are so used to hearing that spring stats mean nothing, so it was exciting to learn that there was some meaning after all, if you knew where to look. So with that in mind, I identified four starting pitcher breakout candidates based on strikeout rate surges during the spring. Let’s review their performances.

Drew Hutchison

I did the full review of Hutchison’s season in the beginning of the month, as he looks like a solid candidate to watch his ERA drop significantly. Though the fastball velocity seemingly didn’t jump as much as the hype made it sound during the spring, his strikeout rate was still a delight. Now throwing to the excellent pitch framer Russell Martin, he could easily become an even trendier sleeper.

Jarred Cosart

For a guy who throws 94 mph and touches 97, it’s still a wonder how Cosart has struck out batters at such a low rate over his 240 Major League innings. Although technically his strikeout rate did increase this year, that was a relatively easy call regardless of his spring success. He did strike out over 20% of batters at Triple-A in 2012 and 2013 and it’s hard to maintain such a low strikeout rate and remain in the Majors. Since he throws his fastball 70% of the time, it’s going to be hard for Cosart to push that strikeout rate up to 20%.

But really the issue is that he needs a secondary pitch that induces whiffs. His changeup was good in that department, but he threw it just 118 times all season. The supposed new curve he had worked on was no better than it had been, generating swinging strikes at nearly the same measly clip as in 2013. There are some seeds here for something intriguing, but he seems too far away from putting it all together.

Tanner Scheppers

I need a mulligan on this one. Scheppers was a candidate for the rotation during the spring and made three starts to prepare for the new role. But elbow issues limited him to just 23.0 innings this season and he made just four starts over eight total appearances. While the spring strikeout rate wasn’t significantly higher than what he had posted previously, remember that he had been in the bullpen and his spring stats were primarily coming as a starter. He also throws hard and the possibility that he was finally translating that velocity into strikeouts was very real. He suffers from a similar problem as Cosart, in that he relies heavily on his fastball, a pitch that typically generates the lowest SwStk%. His curve has been solid though, and much better than Cosart’s, so his strikeout upside is much higher. Given his propensity for grounders, he’s worth monitoring if he gets another shot at a rotation slot.

Josh Tomlin

And finally the best example of the spring strikeout rate surge list identifying a breakout. Well, obviously not on the surface as his 4.76 ERA lost him his rotation spot. But his strikeout rate surged to nearly 7% above his previous career high, which is almost unheard of. The calculus here was that Tomlin was returning from Tommy John surgery and was apparently flashing improved velocity in the spring. Of course, that never actually materialized during the regular season, as his fastball sat at 89.0 mph, which was below where he was in 2012. Most of the strikeout rate surge came from his curve, which generated a higher SwStk% than ever before. Unfortunately, there’s no room for him at the moment in the Indians rotation, so he loses any AL-Only sleeper appeal he may have had, given that shiny 3.28 SIERA.

So technically all three of the healthy pitchers posted strikeout rates that were higher than previous levels, while the fourth was marred by injury. This spring, I’ll put together another list, but also include strikeout rate decliners and lists involving walk rates.