Reviewing Three Recent Rookie Hitter Callups — Through June 10, 2023

It’s been quite a year for rookies, with a number of them becoming valuable fantasy assets. Today, let’s focus on three recent hitter callups and decide if any of them are going to move into that group as well.

Matt McLain | SS CIN

McLain made his MLB debut just under a month ago, on May 15. He ranked as the Reds’ second best prospect and 44th overall. Looking at his scouting grades, it wouldn’t appear like he would be an elite prospect or one that fantasy owners would salivate over. He’s essentially well-rounded, though with above average speed, which could result in strong fantasy performance, like a 20/20 season, or not a whole lot if it merely decent hitting skills doesn’t keep him in the lineup.

However, his actual stats tell a different story, which is why I focus on those first and then check the scouting grades for potential upside. First off, he has incredible plate patience, as he has walked at mid-teens clips at every minor league stop. That’s Joey Votto territory, and since both are on the same team, you wonder if McLain tried to match his game to the veteran’s. Aside from the plate patience, which should boost his value in OBP leagues, he posted single digit SwStk% in two of three stops, and the one he failed to, posted just an 11.1% mark. That suggests one heck of a plate approach, especially when you consider his power.

That power is moving in the right direction and should have everyone excited. His HR/FB rate rose from 9.4% to 15.9% to 23.5% as he climbed the minor league ladder, while his ISO increased from .152 to .221 to .362. Now that’s progress! And he fully took advantage of his growing over-the-fence power as his FB% also increased at each level. That’s not great for his BABIP (though it clearly wasn’t affected), but stupendous for his power.

If you weren’t impressed enough by his rising power, maybe you will be by his speed! He hasn’t just shown growing power, but has also stolen bases that only a fantasy owner could salivate over. He has already swiped 47 bases in just 744 minor league PAs, putting him on a 38 steal pace over 600 PAs. Oh, and that’s along with his 42 homers, for a 34 homer pace.

So far, his MLB debut hasn’t gone quite as well, though you might think it has thanks to an absurd .466 BABIP that isn’t going to last. I’m surprised his walk rate has tumbled to just 7%, but it’s good to see his SwStk% sits at just 8.6%, so he’s not swinging and miss much, even though his strikeout rate is worse than league average. Overall, the production is a far cry from what his most recent minor league numbers suggested he was capable of, but still shows the potential of a really strong fantasy asset that delivers both power and speed, with a won’t-kill-you batting average.

Nolan Jones | 1B (some leagues/OF) COL

It’s weird including Jones on a list of rookie callups because he has seemingly been a prospect forever. Oh, and he’s already 25 years old. But when he made his Rockies debut on May 26, he was still a rookie, as he only enjoyed a 94 PA cup of coffee with the Guardians last year. Jones’ 60/70 Raw Power grade is the attraction here, plus he has walked at a double digit clip everywhere he has played. In fact, the lowest walk rate he has ever posted in the minors is 12.5%. He makes good contact, often posting single digit SwStk% marks, but his plate patience has led to a high strikeout rate at times.

Despite owning 60/70 Raw Power, his HR/FB rate rate peaked at 24.6% back in 2018 at Single-A, but had only been above 19.5% once, until his time at Triple-A with the Rockies this year. There, he burst out for a 37.5% HR/FB rate and .356 ISO. Surely, the hitter friendly conditions has boosted his production, but hey, his MLB home team also plays in hitter friendly conditions, so it’s not like he’s going to lose out on a home park boost. Oh, and he’s already hit a ball with an EV as high as 114.4 MPH, so he’s a legit big power guy. I want a legit big power guy who plays half his games at Coors Field!

Oddly, he hasn’t hit a high rate of fly balls in his career, cutting into his power output, but it has helped him post strong BABIP marks. And heck, right now with the Rockies, he’s sporting identical 33.3% marks across each batted ball type and has yet to hit a pop-up. It has all resulted in a crazy .481 BABIP!

While he has stolen a base here in there, surprisingly he already has four swiped with the Rockies in just 50 PAs. That really bodes well for his running in the future and perhaps he paces for a 20+/20+ season the rest of the way. You can never be confident how the Rockies are going to treat your fantasy player, but for as long as he remains in the lineup, I’m a big fan.

Elly De La Cruz | SS/3B CIN

Ya know who McLain was behind in the Reds top prospect rankings? De La Cruz, of course. He also ranked as the fifth best prospect in all of baseball, thanks to scouting grades that really excite fantasy owners — 45/70 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, and 70/70 Speed. So you’re telling me he’s a potential 40/40 guy?! Me likey. He debuted just last week on June 6 and is going to be a super hot commodity during FAAB bidding. I can’t wait to see how much he goes for in LABR Mixed.

Even though he was already quite good at High-A and Double-A last year, his performance jumped to an even higher level this year at Triple-A at the tender age of 21. His HR/FB rate surged to 37.5%, ISO to .335, and his maxEV there was a Giancarlo Stantonesque 118.8 MPH. That’s mammoth power to be showing at such a young age. He also nearly doubled his walk rate to post a double digit mark for the first time, while also cutting his strikeout rate and posting his lowest SwStk% so far. The one quibble is a low FB% that fell to just below 30%. He’s been a BABIP machine thanks to his batted ball profile, but more fly balls would be totally acceptable given his power and HR/FB rate.

He also continues to steal bases, swiping 11 at Triple-A, for a 35 steal pace over 600 PAs. So once again, we have a major power/speed combo contributor on this list, which we love to see.

It’s only been 22 PAs, but a 45.5% strikeout rate already is a reminder that there is still risk here. While he oozes tools and the performance suggests he’s ready, strikeouts could ultimately prove problematic and lead to some extended slumps. Still, I’m taking a shot here and would be patting myself on the back if I had the foresight to pick him up weeks ago if that was allowed.