Reviewing the 2014 xBB% Overachievers, AKA: The Downsiders

Yesterday, I reviewed my short list of pitchers that my xBB% equation suggested had significant room for improvement. Today I check in on those pitchers I identified as having downside, as this group posted xBB% marks well above their actual walk rates in 2014.

Derek Holland

2014 — 3.5% BB%
2015 — 6.9%

Holland has thrown just 95.2 innings over the past two seasons due to knee and shoulder injuries, but it seemed clear his 3.5% walk rate over his 2014 small sample was a fluke. Since his fastball velocity remains fine and his slider continues to generates tons of swings and misses, I wouldn’t forget about him in AL-Only leagues next year.

Matt Shoemaker

2014 — 4.4%
2015 — 6.2%

Shoemaker was one of 2014’s biggest surprises and one of the drivers of his success was his tiny walk rate. But it clearly wasn’t sustainable, as his overall strike percentage was right around the league average. His strike rate slipped this year, but his walk rate remained better than average. Shoemaker continued to show an excellent splitter, but his slider induced fewer swings and misses this year.

Bad fastball or not, he’s unlikely to allow another 14% HR/FB rate. Unfortunately, he may not have a rotation spot, but if he finds himself with one, he should be a good course of profit.

Yovani Gallardo

2014 — 6.6%
2015 — 8.6%

Gallardo has been consistently outperforming his xBB% marks for years now, but even so, there was little reason to expect him to repeat that career best walk rate from 2014 without throwing more strikes. Gallardo’s strikeout rate has amazingly now declined for six straight years, and yet somehow his ERA has remained remarkably consistent outside his 2013 season when it jumped above 4.00 for the only time of his career.

Somehow he managed to post an ERA more than a full run below his SIERA, as he posted his best HR/FB rate since 2010 and was excellent at stranding his baserunners. He’s an excellent name to nominate early in your AL-Only league as his skills have declined significantly and his ERA won’t remain in the mid-3.00 range for much longer without a reversal of that downtrend.

James Shields

2014 — 4.7%
2015 — 9.4%

Not only did Shields’ walk rate rises as predicted, but it easily set a new career high. It was a weird season in his first with a National League club, as his strikeout rate surged, but he posted the lowest strike rate of his career. We could mostly blame his bread and butter pitch, the changeup, for his control issues, as he threw the pitch in the strike zone at the lowest rate of his career. This was the best we have seen his curve been at generating swings and misses though, which boosted his strikeout rate to a career best.

Because he was able to strand nearly 80% of runners, his inflated 17.6% HR/FB rate rate didn’t hurt nearly as bad. Both rates should come down next year, but it will be interesting to see how many of those strikeout and walk rate increases he sustains. Coming off his worst ERA since 2010, he might represent a good value on draft day.

Kevin Gausman

2014 — 8.0%
2015 — 6.2%

It was quite shocking when we learned during spring training that Ubaldo Jimenez would claim a rotation spot, while Gausman would open in the bullpen. But of course, Gausman eventually did get his chance and made 17 starts. His strike percentage had tumbled last year compared to 2013, but it rebounded fully this year, allowing him to get his walk rate back down. The former top prospect still hasn’t had a full year in the rotation, but from a skills perspective, he remains slightly disappointing.

His splitter remains fantastic and the SwStk% on his fastball this year finally matched the pitch’s velocity. But his slider remains terrible, and he actually threw it a bit more frequently this year at the expense of that deadly splitter. A change in pitch mix might help — fewer fastballs (70% is a lot and usually doesn’t result in a high strikeout rate), more splitters, and possibly ditching the slider in favor of something else.

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So just like the xK% lists, the downside list performed better. Here, four of the five starters did see their walk rates increase. Again, it makes sense, as it’s easier to project a decline in performance than an uptick.