Reviewing Pod’s Picks: Second Base

And onward we move, this week to recapping the second basemen. It was a pretty crazy year, as the preseason consensus top choice finished 14th in value, while a player we didn’t even rank at all finished third. Let’s find out how I did with my Pod’s Picks.

Bullish

Jed Lowrie

My Preseason Rank: 16 | Preseason Consensus: 20 | Actual Rank: 19

Lowrie shows up with the shortstops and earned a whopping 59 cents. That would have ranked 19th among second basemen. I expressed real surprise that I was more bullish than the consensus in my original write-up, as if anything, I would have guessed I was more pessimistic than the market. But then again, us RotoGraphers don’t exactly represent the market. After solid four-category contributions in 2013, Lowrie regressed to being an asset precisely nowhere. His power disappeared, his BABIP fell back toward his career average, and he continued to show no interest in swiping any bases to at least salvage some of his value. While his HR/FB rate should rebound, his fly ball heavy approach is going to keep his BABIP and batting average down and he offers no speed to offset his weaknesses. I don’t expect him to come close to what he earned in 2013 again.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Ben Zobrist

My Preseason Rank: 8 | Preseason Consensus: 11 | Actual Rank: 10

Zobrist performance almost identically to his 2013 season, which was a disappointment, at least to me. I expected somewhat of a rebound, at the very least in his power. But his HR/FB rates have now sat at just half his 2011 and 2012 marks over the past two years. The thing is, his batted ball distance is only down marginally, and a mark in the mid-270s should result in a HR/FB rate far closer to the league average. Since he doesn’t stand out in any one category and has likely become boring, he may very well be a bit undervalued next year. Even just a 10-10 season was enough to rank 10th at the position, and I would be on a small power rebound.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Brandon Phillips

My Preseason Rank: 11 | Preseason Consensus: 14 | Actual Rank: 18

Like Lowrie, I was extremely surprised to be more bullish on Phillips than the others. I figured that the loss of both Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto would result in significantly fewer RBI opportunities, even if Phillips remained in the cleanup spot, which I thought was unlikely. I was right about the RBI opportunities, but a thumb injury that required surgery really hurt his counting stats, as he was limited to just 499 plate appearances. His power was down when he was on the field though and he no longer steals bases. I’m not confident he rebounds all that much.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Bearish

Anthony Rendon

My Preseason Rank: 20 | Preseason Consensus: 15 | Actual Rank: 3

Oy vey. So Rendon is listed with the third basemen and would have finished third among the second basemen in dollar value. I took lots of flack for my pessimism here, but a lot of that had to do with him opening the season hitting eighth in the order. That’s a terrible spot. But you know how many times he actually hit in front of the pitcher? Once, the first game of the season. Injuries led the Nationals to juggle their lineup and eventually Rendon found a home in the two hole, which is an excellent spot for fantasy stats. Excuses aside, I certainly didn’t see his speed outburst coming. He had stolen eight bases throughout his entire professional career prior to this year, and then suddenly he attempts 20, succeeding on 17 of those?! I have no idea what to project for next season. The power though is legit and with an above average 287 foot batted ball distance, there’s further upside. Whether he earns his cost next year may be entirely dependent on his steals output.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Matt Carpenter

My Preseason Rank: 10 | Preseason Consensus: 6 | Actual Rank: 11

Carpenter also appears with the third basemen and I am overjoyed that I actually got one closer. Ughh, what a terrible position for me this year! I think we all expected Carpenter to disappoint, but how far would he fall was the question. I think all his counting stats were generally in line with expectations and the type of reasonable regression forecasted. The biggest surprise though was his batting average. His batted ball profile is the type that supports an inflated BABIP, as he hits tons of line drives and few pop-ups. But while his BABIP did remain above the league average, it still represented a nosedive from his previous two seasons. That’s the risk you take when rostering a BABIP dependent player with replacement level power and speed.

Closer Ranking: Me

Final Tally:
Me: 1
Consensus: 4