Reviewing Ottoneu Surplus Pre-Keeper Deadline

The concept of surplus is never far from my mind. Last week I had an article detailing surplus and inflation, and how the two are correlated. I created a tool (the ottoneu Surplus Calculator) to analyze league and team keeper quality through the lens of surplus. I also posted a retrospective analysis on the official ottoneu community detailing how well keeper surplus predicts final standings (spoiler alert- pretty well, considering the analysis doesn’t include auction results or in season management). Today, I wanted to take a look at some data relating to how much surplus the top team in each FanGraphs points ottoneu league has.

A few quick notes before I present the table. First, the surplus amounts are based on running every league through my own personal version of the Surplus Calculator. Second, these surplus figures are the gross surplus currently on the roster, once the keeper deadline is over these amounts will be lower as teams keep players with negative surplus. Third, I have excluded any league that did not have twelve teams. The average column represents the average surplus the top team in each league had (within the league group), and the high and low columns show the highest and lowest single team surplus (again, these represent the *best* surplus team).

So, on average the teams with the most surplus across all FanGraphs points leagues have about $154 in gross surplus on the roster, with the highest being $259 and the lowest being $72. There is also a clear increase in average first place surplus as leagues get older, and typically the teams with the very highest surplus are found in older leagues.

Let’s take a look at the five teams with the most surplus, keeping in mind that these teams basically represent the best bets to be the highest scoring teams in 2017.

5. Smelly Pirate Hooker (#389) $225 total surplus

First, what an unfortunate name. Second, this team finished 2016 as the 16th highest scoring team in FGPts leagues. The team with the second most surplus in this league has $158, so even with having $200+ surplus SPH still has some competition. The top assets on this team include a $14 Noah Syndergaard, a $21 Mookie Betts, and an $8 Carlos Carrasco.

4. King Kang (#207) $226 total surplus

The second place team in this league has $151 in surplus, so just like the team above King Kang isn’t a sure thing to win their league. Kang’s top assets include a $13 Noah Syndergaard, a$13 Mookie Betts, and a $16 Nolan Arenado. King Kang finished as the 31st highest scoring FGPts team in 2016.

3. Vinegar Strokes (#120) $230 total surplus

Vinegar Strokes finished ’16 as the 11th highest scoring team in FGPts leagues, and is on track to finish in the top fifteen once again. The top assets on this squad include a $26 Josh Donaldson, $13 Carlos Carrasco, and $6 Rich Hill.

2. DL.O.A (#235) $232 total surplus

This should be a crazy league this season, as the second most surplus (Meat Tornadoes) has $213 (7th overall). The top assets on DL.O.A include an $8 Corey Seager, a $9 Chris Archer, and a $6 Rich Hill.

1. Smell the Glove (#81) $259 total surplus

There is no other team across all FGPts leagues that I think is more likely to win their league than Smell the Glove. The second most surplus in this league is just $90 (an otherwise respectable amount), a whopping $169 less surplus than StG. This team also finished as the second highest scoring team in 2016, with more than 21K points. The top assets include $17 Mookie Betts, $12 Corey Seager, and $8 Carlos Carrasco.

It will be interesting to see how frequently these five teams appear on the monthly ottoneu Power Rankings this season!