Reviewing 2017 Pod vs Steamer Projections — Home Run Downside

Before taking a short vacation, I reviewed the first preseason Pod vs Steamer Projections series posts, focused on home run upside. That article discussed the hitters whose home run Pod Projection was significantly greater than his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll recap the players I identified as possessing significant home run downside compared with Steamer. With the record setting home run total, this shall be interesting.

Welllll, that’s embarrassing. But hey, would anyone else even publish a review with such poor results for themselves?!

Even in nearly 90 fewer at-bats than projected, Bryce Harper still managed to exceed my home run projection, though he finished sandwiched between both mine and Steamer’s forecast. That’s because his HR/FB dramatically rebounded closer to his peak 2015 level. Unfortunately, his Brls/BBE, while excellent, simply does not support a mid-20% HR/FB rate, so he’s likely to end up on this list again in 2018.

It wasn’t a miss on the at-bats for Eric Thames, it was simply a matter of playing it too safe. Foreign league translations are extremely difficult and all of us were essentially guessing. Thames’ 24.6% HR/FB rate was well above my forecast and proof that he legitimately became a massively improved hitter in the KBO. He carried over the increased plate patience as well, though just four stolen bases was a bit of a disappointment.

Christian Yelich recorded about 40 additional at-bats than I forecasted, which marginally hurt my ability to “win”, but it really came down to the fact that his fly ball rate spiked once again to a new career high. After his first three seasons of laughing at his puny fly ball rate and how that caps his home run potential, he has improved it in a hurry, going from 15% to 20% to 25.2%. His BABIP has tumbled as a result, but outside of a peak wOBA in 2016 that correlates with his only 20%+ HR/FB rate, his wOBA has remained quite steady, as trading BABIP for fly balls and homers hasn’t been detrimental to his offense. He’s clearly a mid-teens HR/FB guy, so his homer total all comes down to whether he could sustain all those fly ball gains or if he reverts back to being a ground ball machine.

Those that kept blind faith in Yasiel Puig were finally rewarded as absolutely nothing in his statistical profile suggested he was on the verge of a breakout. We all knew he had the “tools” and he was heading into his age 26 season, so in the back of our minds, we knew a major breakout was always a possibility, but it was impossible to actually forecast it. Of course, by wOBA this wasn’t a breakout at all, but the best power output of his career. His Brls/BBE did rise to a career best, but it would be nice to see him get that mark into double digits, which he’s failed to do so far.

Despite owning Wil Myers during his entire 2016 campaign, I didn’t believe anything was real when looking forward to 2017. And while his strikeout rate rose this season and HR/FB rate dropped slightly, both of which made it tough to come close to a home run repeat, his fly ball rate suddenly surged above 40% for the first time, nearly ten percentage points higher than the previous year. No one could have predicted that! It’s anyone’s guess where that strikeout and fly ball rate go in 2018, so he’ll be a tough guy to peg on the home run front. If the strikeouts stick, but fly ball rate falls back into the low-to-mid 30% range, he’s going to disappoint many.

Gosh were we all way off on Scott Schebler, as my poor home run projection was due to my pessimism stemming from his weak 2016 Brls/BBE. This year he nearly doubled it, pushing that mark into double digits, and riding whatever magic led to more balls flying out of the yard.