Reviewing 2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: Catcher

So as I do annually, I compared my personal dollar values and resulting rankings to the RotoGraphs consensus rankings (excluding my own of course) at each position before the season began and identified those I was most bullish on as my picks and those I was bearish on as my pans. Last week, Brad Johnson published the catcher end of season values and rankings, so we’ll begin by reviewing my 2016 Pod’s Picks and Pans at catcher.

I was cautiously optimistic about Matt Wieters as his 2015 batted ball distance suggested his power was still there and output should rebound, while you had to figure he would be a bit healthier. Of course, that health status was still a question mark, but this season he ended up amassing his most number of plate appearances since 2013. While his performance generally went to plan, his fantasy value was hampered by a BABIP that finished at the second lowest mark of his career. This came despite a strong line drive rate. The low BABIP hurt his batting average and killed his chances of ranking inside the top 10 at the position.

While no one expected J.T. Realmuto to bat over .300, I’m sure, he generally performed exactly as expected. His fifth overall ranking at the position proves the value of a catcher who steals bases. Unfortunately, he hit zero triples, after swatting seven in 2015, and his Spd score plummeted to just 3.7, so the question is whether we could count on him for double digit steals again. I’d bet against.

In reality, a two ranking spot difference for Salvador Perez was insignificant. But he was included on the list just to discuss another player. I stated that his 2015 batted ball distance surged validated his HR/FB rate spike and sure enough he did maintain his power. In fact, he pretty much mirrored his 2015 numbers, but with a caveat — his strikeout rate skyrocketed, which hurt his batting average. It was the first time it jumped above 15% (finishing at 21.8%) and the first time his SwStk% rose into the double digits. His fly ball rate also spiked, so you wonder if he was selling out for power, even though his HR/FB rate actually declined marginally.

Russell Martin was excruciatingly bad in April and then merely terrible in May, but then looking more like himself over the next three months, before falling back into awfuldom in September. Overall, he came close to his fantasy numbers from last year, with small declines across the board. I figured he had no shot at repeating the career high 20%+ HR/FB rate he posted in 2015 and I was right, but I think 18% was still higher than I expected. The real killer was a 27.7% strikeout rate, which easily set a new career high and that was driven by a career worst SwStk%, a mark that jumped above 9% and into double digits for the first time. Heading into his age 34 season, you wonder if this is the beginning of the decline and his power takes another step down.

In my initial writeup, I began by saying this about Yasmani Grandal:

Look, I’m a fan of the potential of what a healthy Yasmani Grandal could do. But health is something he has struggled with. Sure enough, he’s already dealing with a forearm issue! This is in addition to coming off shoulder surgery after the season, which is notorious for sapping a hitter’s power.

So what happens? He sets a new career high in plate appearances (though not by much), of course, and his HR/FB rate skyrockets into the 20%+ range, while his ISO surges into the mid-.200 range. I didn’t think even a healthy Grandal was capable of this much power, but clearly his health was not the issue I was worried it would be. As usual, he struggled to convert batted balls into hits, as his BABIP sat at a lowly .250, which was a new career low. It was pretty pathetic that despite hitting 27 homers, he scored just 49 runs, which was only two more than his 2014 total when he hit just 15 homers. While I don’t expect him to match his homer total next season, I think there’s upside in his runs scored total and batting average, meaning he’s still probably a top 10 option.