Reviewing 2015 Pod Projections: George Springer

For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.

Plate Appearances: 600 projected vs 451 actual

For the second straight season, Springer was victimized by the injury bug. He first hit the concussion disabled list after crashing into the wall making a catch and then missed two months thanks to a fastball that fractured his right wrist. Maybe this will be the year he gets a full season in.

K%: 29.6% projected vs 24.2% actual

Springer struck out often in the minors, but not at a frighteningly high rate, especially given his power. But his first year SwStk% had to at least drive some doubt in his ability to make consistent enough contact at the big league level. This year, he proved that he could make the adjustments, as his SwStk% improved dramatically and strikeout rate fell along with it. He still swings and misses frequently, but a strikeout rate in the mid-20% range is a lot more palatable than one above 30%.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 18% / 38% projected vs 45% / 24.5% / 30% actual

He turned his fly balls into line drives, which is good for BABIP, bad for power. Because he has posted significantly different fly ball rates in his first two seasons, it’s hard to guess where he’ll settle in this year. But his batting average and home run output will be riding on it.

BABIP: .320 projected vs .342 actual

I figured Springer was a bit unlucky with a .294 BABIP in 2014, despite a lowly line drive rate. That, plus his inflated minor league marks suggested big improvement was likely on the way in 2015. I was right, but he actually exceeded the rate of improvement I forecasted. All those extra line drives, a drop in IFFB%, a better balance between his Pull% and Oppo% all contributed to the BABIP surge. I think he’ll be closer to his 2015 mark than 2014 mark in 2016.

HR/FB Ratio: 22% projected vs 18.8% actual

Springer’s batted ball distance declined by about 14 feet, which is rather significant, but not so surprising as it was just his second year. What looks like happened is that a lot of his 2014 homers became 2015 doubles, or a simple rearranging of his extra-base hits. His 2015 looks like a more normal distribution of homers and doubles, but he still probably has a bit more HR/FB rate upside. However, I’d consider the upper teens a fine forecasted HR/FB rate for 2016.

RBI and Runs: 83 and 79 projected vs 41 and 59 actual

Obviously, Springer had no chance to reach my projected totals in just 451 plate appearances. If we extrapolate his totals to the 600 plate appearances I projected, his RBI and runs scored numbers would increase to 55 and 78. I would have completely missed his runs batted in total, but nailed the runs scored total. The explanation for his low RBI total is easy — he hit lead off in 46% of his plate appearances and second in 27% of them. A forward thinking organization like the Astros don’t care that they are hitting a power hitter atop their order; rather, they love his OBP and wants to get him to the plate as often as possible. The Astros have several top of the order candidates, so Springer’s lineup slot next year is no sure thing. If he performs up to expectations, he’s a lock to record all his plate appearances from the top four spots in the order.

SB: 16 projected vs 16 actual

When Springer was a top prospect, he featured an intriguing blend of power and speed. But that speed didn’t travel with him from the minors when he debuted in 2014 with the Astros. He stole just five bags in seven attempts. So it was questionable how many bases he would steal in 2015. I actually hit this projection right on the head, but only because of the partial season. Springer’s running game returned, which is a good sign for his fantasy value moving forward.

With unquestioned power and the reappearance of his speed, Springer has the potential to be a real asset in four categories, with upside of remaining neutral or even slightly positive in the batting average category. Though it’s unlikely fantasy owners have forgotten about him, two injury-marred seasons could result in a slight discount that could yield some profit.

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Below is a summary of how Springer was projected by all systems, along with his actual totals and those extrapolated to the same number of plate appearances I projected.

Obviously, we were all too high on the playing time. We also all proved too pessimistic on his batting average, as every system projected a K% of at least 29%. My BABIP projection was the most optimistic, as I use my xBABIP formula and minor league rates. We all overshot his home run power, while all but the Fans foresaw the stolen base surge over a 600 plate appearance pace.