Reviewing 2014 Pod’s Picks: 3rd Base

It’s third base week here at beautiful RotoGraphs headquarters, so let’s move along to recapping my preseason Pod’s Picks at the position. As a reminder, I compared my preseason rankings with the consensus of the other three RotoGraphs rankings and discussed those whose rankings differed most. Refresh your memory by reading up on my initial thoughts.

Bullish

Aramis Ramirez

My Preseason Rank: 8 | Preseason Consensus: 15 | Actual Rank: 15

Aaaand the consensus hit the nail right on the head. Ramirez didn’t make it through the entire season without missing some time due to injury, but it was nothing like his injury-marred 2013. He still nearly reached the 500 at-bat plateau. But, even when he was on the field, he posted his lowest wOBA since his low-BABIP deflating 2010 performance and the worst ISO of his entire career over a full season. His batted ball distance was easily a career low, dropping 11 feet from last year, and he was as impatient as ever, walking a measly 4.0% of the time. We’ve been wondering when the decline would begin and at age 36, it appears that the answer is now.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Jedd Gyorko

My Preseason Rank: 9 | Preseason Consensus: 14 | Actual Rank: 28

Gyorko appeared in the second base rankings and his pathetic -$4.29 value would have ranked 28th among third baseman. I was befuddled by the fact that two of the other three rankers ranked Gyorko higher than me at second, yet I was most bullish on him at third. So I guess it was a surprise that I was so much more optimistic here. Oops. Gyorko had a sophomore season to forget as he battled through injury, a low BABIP and a power outage. His batted ball distance dropped nearly 10 feet and his HR/FB rate slipped into league average territory as a result. Because he’s unlikely to contribute in batting average, won’t steal many bases and plays on a weak offense, his upside is really just as a one-category threat. Perhaps two if he hits in the middle of the order and is given the opportunity to knock in runs. He’ll be a good buy in NL-Only leagues, but won’t be worth that much above replacement level in mixed.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Todd Frazier

My Preseason Rank: 16 | Preseason Consensus: 20 | Actual Rank: 2

Frazier was a good example of a guy coming off a disappointing season after a promising full-season debut the prior year who I projected to rebound. Of course, I never expected the type of performance that he ultimately delivered. While his plate discipline and batted ball distribution metrics remained relatively stable, his HR/FB rate surged and he suddenly became a stolen base threat. His batted ball distance jumped about seven feet, which mostly validates his HR/FB rate increase. Though since his ISO barely moved upward and his doubles rate fell precipitously, it feels like this was just a case of his doubles and homers totals flip-flopping, rather than a legit increase in power. As such, I would project regression back toward his career mark next year. He had shown speed in the minors, so his stolen base prowess isn’t completely shocking. But still, the Steamer projection for 11 swipes sounds reasonable.

Closer Ranking: Me

Bearish

Pablo Sandoval

My Preseason Rank: 18 | Preseason Consensus: 7 | Actual Rank: 9

Hmmm, he hit my preseason projection almost perfectly, yet I was still off by nine ranks. Odd. Perhaps this year there were more disappointments in my top 15 than usual, allowing Sandoval to move up. His season line was very similar to what he posted in 2013, and that ranked him just 15th at the position. Somebody needs to talk about how amazingly consistent Sandoval has been with his strikeout rate. Since his first full season in 2009, he has posted a strikeout rate between 13.1% and 13.5% every single year. And it’s always ended on an odd number! Either 13.1%, 13.3% or 13.5%. I think many keep expecting Sandoval to recover the power he displayed back in 2009 and 2011, but those appear to be the outliers. He has been rather consistent outside of those years.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Brett Lawrie

My Preseason Rank: 15 | Preseason Consensus: 8 | Actual Rank: 34

It just gets worse and worse for Lawrie, who heading into 2012, was thought to be the newest five-category contributor at third base. Injuries once again wrecked his season, but there was a shred of good news — his power jumped and HR/FB rate finally rose back above the league average. Unfortunately, his batted ball distance increased by just five feet and was still stuck around the league average. It suggests that the HR/FB rate was a bit of a fluke. Aside from questions about his power, the biggest concern that relates to his future fantasy potential is his lack of stolen bases. In fact, he failed to even attempt one steal all year. He hit zero triples and his Spd score plummeted to just 0.9. That’s shockingly low and would have ranked second lowest in baseball among qualified hitters!

Closer Ranking: Me

Final Tally:
Me: 2
Consensus: 3