Replacement Level Crowdsourcing
We’ve been over it before, but the concept of “replacement level” is very important in regular old (boring) baseball, and it may be equally important in fantasy baseball. So, in order to better nail down a replacement level, I need your help. But first, some basics on replacement level before we get to the voting.
A replacement level player is defined as “a player who is available on the waiver wire in a majority (50.01%) of leagues.”
In theory, no drafted players would be below replacement level. In this case, theory isn’t reality. Some players taken in the last couple rounds will be at (or below) replacement level, and that is just fine. The problem is figuring out exactly when the players we are drafting turn into replacement level players, and that is the point of this exercise.
The easiest way to think about it is this: at what point do the players you are drafting become interchangeable with the players on the waiver wire? I think we can all agree that this happens at some point during the final leg of the draft, but at what point exactly? That’s what I am asking you to figure out.
Below is a link to a voting form asking the very simple question that I mentioned above: “at what point during the last rounds do the players you are drafting become virtually interchangeable with the players on the waiver wire?”
The voting isn’t trivial, so please pick the answer that corresponds to what you have noticed in your vast fantasy experience. For the voting, assume this a 12-team standard league, if you please.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
In auction leagues (12-team AL/NL, 23 & 25 players per team), at around $2-$3 is replacement level.
I think there are too few options in the poll. I think anyone picked after 200 overall (i.e. round 16-17) is picked on upside alone and there is at least as good a chance that they’ll be replacement level or below as they’ll be above. Assuming three bench spots is the standard, this would translate to roughly the last 10 rounds.
Does that really fit the criteria of “interchangable with players on the wire” though? I think this lends itself to the “risk” debate, but if the downside is well below replacement level and the upside is way above, and replacement level is essentially free, the downside is mitigated by the “drop” option.
I actually think its a bit later, especially with pitchers. In Yahoo! leagues you can get guys like Jhoulys Chacin, James Shields, a slew of passable if not quality relievers, around pick 200. I did my first real draft the other day and the last pick I felt was better than anyone I could find on the wire was my 19th round pick–Jordan Zimmermann. There were very specific targets I had in the early 200s and not just based on positional needs. After that it broke down to Sean Rodriguez, Derek Holland, Nate McLouth, etc., who I’d consider much more fitting the criteria of easily replaceable with a similarly projected player if I wanted to do an immediate Add/Drop, so I’d say its more like in the pick 220-230 range.
I used to call this the Jack Cust line, but in 2010 he was below even replacement.
is this for the valuation tool David mentioned writing a couple months ago?
I understand the concept you’re getting at, but went to vote and admittedly had NO idea how to even approach the question. I haven’t had any drafts this year, and trying to remember if replacement-level type fodder started going in round 22 or 22.5 or 23 from 1-2 years ago seems a fool’s errand. Sure I could go back and look at the draft results, but that’s with a year (or two) hindsight – i.e., the players who were actually replacement-level in hindsight may not be the ones who were expected to be replacement level while drafting.
So I have zero idea. But am nonetheless interested in seeing the results (and more importantly, the conclusions drawn from it).
The cop out answer is it varies by league. I’ve had drafts in 12 team leagues where there’s still 10 players out there I’d consider above replacement level and I’ve had drafts with the same settings where the last 6 picks I’ve made have been fungible pitchers.
It also depends on how I conduct the draft and what holes I feel the need to plug late in the day.
Final answer is the last three rounds. I say this not from draft experience though. My personal preference is to always have 3 roster slots available for churn and burn. As such, three of my last 5 picks are usually used on guys who are longshots for playing time but would be well above average if they got it. Usually these are easy cuts before the season even starts but sometimes the hail mary pans out.
Yeah, I think the answers available tries to put too fine a point on it. I don’t think you can point to round 23, pick 8 (for example) and say “there! Replacement level from that point on!” Owners are drafting with very different goals in mind at that point – plug holes at certain positions, fill category needs, shoot for upside, get pitchers to stream, etc etc.
isn’t a streamable pitcher by definition a replacement level player? If I’m drafting to plug in holes at this point, I’m drafting guys like Barmes to fill in at 2B and SS if I have a guy like Tulo or Kinsler as my starters. If you shot for upside with Justin Masterson last year, you got a replacement level player. So really, aren’t you just drafting replacement level guys (no matter how you rationalize it) in the last five rounds or so?
“So really, aren’t you just drafting replacement level guys (no matter how you rationalize it) in the last five rounds or so?”
Generally, yes…but, you may not have a starting SS, or C, or whatever, and may be drafting your starters then. Not saying that’s ideal, but it happens.
And also “the last five rounds or so” pretty well covers it – there’s no way to put a finer point on it like in the choices given, I don’t think – round 22, or 22.5, or 23, etc.
Look at the last 3 years (or however many) you drafted in a given league. Then look at how many players were selected on average for a given position in your league. i.e. 75 total pitchers, 12 1B, etc. The actual level of replacement is a moving target and determined by the performance of a given set of players for a given season, and how the managers tend to react. But I think in general if you look at how many of each position is filling up the bench slots on a given roster than that can give you a good starting point. Which will then lead to how you calculate the value over replacement for a given player, position. To me it has nothing to do with a round in a given draft. The rounds will just determine the total player pool.