Relief Pitcher Fastball Velocity Increasers — Through Apr 16, 2023

Let’s jump back over to the relief pitcher fastball velocity gainers. The sample sizes here are even smaller than for starting pitchers, so I arbitrarily required a minimum of five innings pitched this year since velocities will fluctuate from outing to outing. A reminder that if I’ve already discussed the pitcher in my first review, I will not be posting comments about the pitcher again as nothing will have changed. Instead, just celebrate that the pitcher is still on the gainer list and hasn’t fallen off of it if you’re an owner!

A former starting pitcher, Jakob Junis has shifted between the bullpen and rotation for the last several years. Since the FanGraphs leaderboard search filtered for relievers, the velocity comparison here is only as a reliever, so we don’t have to worry about the standard starter-to-reliever velocity bump causing the increase. While the comparison table is for four-seam fastballs, Junis actually features a sinker. That pitch hasn’t gained as much velocity, but it’s still jumped from 91.7 MPH last season, which was a career best given his time in the bullpen, to 93.6 MPH this year. He has also so far reduced his changeup usage and throwing his slider at a crazy frequency. It’s all led to a career best SwStk% and CSW%, though his strikeout rate hasn’t yet exceeded his 2021 mark. There’s no chance of saves here, unless he stumbles into a three-inning variety, and you’ll be rooting against him returning to the rotation. But in an NL-Only league and given his ability to throw multiple innings, I think he could deliver some positive value.

Ian Hamilton only recorded 2.2 innings last year, but I couldn’t remove him from this list. When he debuted in 2018, he averaged 96.7 MPH with his fastball. He then dealt with shoulder issues, lost that velocity, and jumped from team to team. He’s now back in the Majors, this time with the Yankees, and while his velocity isn’t all the way back to his 2018 level, it’s a nice rebound from his 2022 bottom. In 2018 and 2020, his slider was always strong, but this year it has been absolutely elite, generating a 29.9% SwStk%, while his four-seamer has posted a double digit SwStk% for the first time. Given his injury history and limited track record, it’s impossible to know what we’ll get the rest of the way. But so far, so good, and he’s a worthy pickup in AL-Only leagues to replace a weaker starter you’re worried might destroy your ratios.

It’s not often that a 32-year-old reliever with many seasons under his belt is suddenly throwing harder than ever, but that’s what Yimi Garcia has done so far. The increased velocity has led to his highest SwStk% since 2015, as his four-seamer has now generated an amazing 16% SwStk% all by itself. Of course, his fastball has always been awesome, with a career mark of 14.6%, but perhaps this will actually make his other pitches good for a change. Oddly, only his changeup has generated a double digit SwStk% over his career and it’s a low-teen mark. So despite having a whifftastic fastball, none of his other pitches generate whiffs at even a league average rate. That’s surprising. Obviously, Jordan Romano is one of the few locked in closers, and an excellent one at that. But Garcia is at least third in line, if not second, depending on how the Blue Jays view him relative to Erik Swanson.

After mostly serving as a starter throughout his career, Jaime Barria pitched almost exclusively in relief last year for the first time. The move didn’t help his velocity at all and his strikeout rate was as underwhelming as always. This year, his velocity has finally spiked to the highest of his career. While his strikeout rate has surged, it hasn’t been driven by an increased SwStk%. Instead, it’s a career high rate of called strikes. That’s not what I want to see, but perhaps the swinging strikes will come. Since he’s starting from such a low strikeout rate baseline, he’s going to have to dramatically improve to sustain the mid-to-high 20% strikeout rate to be worthy of a pickup in AL-Only leagues. The Angels don’t have a locked in closer, but it’s hard to believe Barria is going to notch any saves. Of all the names on this list, I’m least interested here.

It seemingly surprised everyone when Will Smith, not José Leclerc, earned the first Rangers save, even himself. The Rangers have recorded just one more save since and that did go to Leclerc. But Smith is looking real good, as his fastball is now coming in at its highest velocity since back in 2015. He’s converted the increased velocity into the highest strikeout rate of his career and an elite level SwStk% that he’s recorded every season since 2013. With closer experience, you would think there’s a real chance he ends up with many more saves over the rest of the season. This is especially true given Leclerc’s start. His velocity, on the other hand, is down to a career worst and he has averaged below 94 MPH in two of his last three outings. Of course, his highest velocity game was in between his two lowest, but even his highest was a full mile per hour lower than what he averaged last year. Leclerc can’t afford to lose any strikeouts given his constant control issues, so unless reduced velocity improves his control (it hasn’t so far!), then this could signal bad news. I’d hold onto Smith or even pick him up in anticipation of a change eventually coming.