Relief Pitcher ADP Market Report: 3/4/21

With draft season upon us, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

James Karinchak (+10.1)- With Brad Hand gone, many are speculating that Karinchak is the next man up as closer in Cleveland. While he seems like the top choice, he is not guaranteed to start with the role. I think that they could easily turn to Nick Wittgren. Wittgren has four career saves to the one of Karinchak. They could also use a committee to keep arbitration prices down. The skills are great, but I think the role is less than certain.  

Top 100 Players Falling

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Top 200 Players Rising

Brad Hand (+32.28)- Hand is rising after signing in Washington where he should be the guy. He allowed no home runs and had the best walk rate of his career. Over the last three seasons, his walk rate and home run rate has dropped each season while his strikeout rates have remained over 30%. 

Kirby Yates (+63.88)- Yates is rising after signing in Toronto to be the closer. Thankfully, the Blue Jays did not bring in another reliever to compete with him as well. Health is the biggest concern, but when healthy he was one of the best relievers in baseball with a 41% strikeout rate since 2019. 

Will Smith (+25.34)- Smith has been moving up the ADP because it seems like he is the closer in Atlanta as of now. That being said, Mark Melancon was the man last year over Smith and the Braves and they could turn to Chris Martin or employ a committee. Martin was fantastic last year while Smith was not. I would rather save the over 100 picks of ADP and take a shot on the cheaper guy. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Devin Williams (-17.48)- Williams is falling in part due to health concerns. He was unable to pitch in the postseason due to injury and now will not pitch in spring training until at least March 17th. Adding to the drop is the fact some thought the Brewers might trade Josh Hader and Williams would likely be the next man up. However, if healthy, Williams could be a top 10 closer if he inherited the role. 

Taylor Rogers (-60.2)- Rogers is dropping because of the Alex Colome signing. However, while Colome will get save opportunities, it is seemingly more likely that this is a committee in the ninth. Neither Rogers or Colome have looked very good this spring, but Rogers is going 50+ picks later, which makes him a bit more intriguing. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jordan Hicks (+24.89)-  Hicks is rising because there is a belief that he will emerge with the closing role. However, over the last two seasons, the Cardinals have gone with multiple closers which tends to make me wonder if they even want to have “a guy.” Prior to opting out last year, Hicks also had a setback in his rehab from Tommy John Surgery. He has reportedly been throwing over 100 MPH without issue. That being said, control is the last thing that tends to come back for TJ returnees and until we get to see how his command and control is in game situations, I would be very cautious.

Drew Pomeranz (+37.3)- Pomeranz continues to rise in spite of Melancon’s signing which is a bit surprising. Melancon is more of the “proven closer” and Pomeranz is the big lefty. I think this has a committee situation written all over it and Melancon is going about a round later. I think I am likely looking elsewhere either way. 

Archie Bradley (+145.33)- Bradley signed in Philly and appears to be the frontrunner for the closing role. There is competition, but Bradley has been fantastic over the last year and a half, throwing 50 innings with 51 strikeouts and just 16 walks, a 2.16 ERA, and 24 saves. He is the perfect RP2 for the “don’t pay for saves” contingent. 

Greg Holland (+49.92)- Holland has gotten a huge jump in the ADP after resigning in Kansas City. He was fantastic down the stretch in 2020, throwing 10.1 innings in his last 10 appearances with 14 strikeouts and five saves while allowing no runs on only one walk and five hits. He is a pretty safe bet to be the closer to start the season with KC, but could end up being traded at the deadline. 

Amir Garrett (+32.28)- Garrett is in a three way battle with Sean Doolittle and Lucas Sims to get the closing job in Cincy. I think that Garrett is the frontrunner, but I am concerned this could turn into a committee. With Lucas Sims already dealing with arm trouble and Sean Doolittle’s health history, If I am going to gamble on a Reds reliever, it will be Garrett. 

Jose Leclerc (111.16)- Leclerc is expected to be the closer to start the season, but considering his health last season and his awful control issues, I thoroughly expect him to cough it up at some point. He has a career 14.9% walk rate. Even if he can be successful, I would expect the Rangers to try and capitalize on his value and trade him. 

Joakim Soria (+440.69)- Soria signed in Arizona and it looks like he may have done for the opportunity to be a closer. While the Diamondbacks have not yet named him as such, he seems the obvious choice there. I am a bit concerned about his big jump in walk rate last year, but I think he will have a fair amount of rope so Arizona can trade him at the deadline to further their rebuild. 

Daniel Bard (+26.69)- Bard is probably a pretty safe bet to stay as the closer in Colorado unless they trade him at the deadline, but he still pitches for a bad Rockies team in Colorado. He is more of a last resort kind of option. 

Anthony Bass (+329.78)- Bass’ rise has come from his signing in Miami where he looks like he is the closer. I know people love Yimi Garcia’s skills, but it makes more sense for the Marlins to use the guy that is cost controlled in Bass. Bass was very effective as the closer in Toronto and is still very well priced.

Top 300 Players Falling

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