Refining Projections: Eaton, Buxton, Goldschmidt, & Urquidy

Adam Eaton: Fool’s Gold

In every actual or mock draft I’ve done so far this offseason, Eaton jumps to the top of my to draft list but I just can’t pull the trigger on him. First, Eaton’s projection is not sexy with 15 homers, 12 steals, and a .282 AVG (Depth Charts). It’s acceptable but not league winning.

Part of his low cost may be that he’s a 31-year-old, who after two near 700 plate appearance seasons, struggled to stay healthy in 2017 and 2018. Both injuries were to start the season, a knee injury in 2017 and an ankle injury in 2018. Besides missing a couple of days to a knee injury in early September, he was completely healthy last season. BaseballHQ still gives him a health grade of “F” which never helps. My own inputs point to his value going in different directions. I have him rebounding from the injury because his spring speed jumped from 27.5 ft/s to 28.3. But I project his plate appearances to be 492 bases off his age, hitting ability, and past playing time.

By taking his Depth Chart projection and dropping it down to 500 PA, Eaton is barely rosterable in a 15-team league and un-rosterable in a 12-teamer. For me, I’m going to bank on the increase sprint speed means he’s healthy and ready to contribute Michael Brantley like production.

Byron Buxton: Is his late return time the final straw?

A few days ago in “Mining the News”, it came out that Byron Buxton will likely miss a few games to start the season. I was on the edge for drafting him, but I’m now just scared off by the slow healing shoulder surgery. And all the other IL trips which have limited him to an average of 274 plate appearances over the past five seasons.

My plate appearance projector hates him with just 338 PA while our projections have his playing time ranging from 484 PA to 602 PA. Using an average of the plate appearances projections, I have him as the 69th ranked player based on 19 homers and 24 steals. Currently, he’s going off the board as the 100th overall hitter. Adjusting my plate appearances down, he finally slots into his draft position at 485 plate appearances, an exact match to the ATC projections. If he just misses a week and accumulates 600+ PA, he’s a 2nd round talent. There is both down and upside to his projection. Which outcome are owners more confident about?

With the larger error bars, he’s being drafted around other hitters with a large range of outcomes like Aristides Aquino, Mallex Smith, and Scott Kingery. The 15th round seems to be the point when owners throw safety out the window and swing for the fences.

For me, I may take one or two chances on him, likely in a shallower league. With a higher replacement level for the outfielders, his injury replacement will be more talented than in a deeper league. Also, he could take up my one “gamble” roster spot which I like to dedicate to a rookie or injured player.

“Paul Goldschmidt can’t hit fastballs.”

There is some truth to the preceding comment with his four-seam swinging-strike rate going from 7% to 9% to 8% to 10%. His sinker’s swinging strike rate has gone from 6% to 7% to 6% to 8%. The overall effect can be seen on his strikeout rate going from 21% to 22% to 25% to 24%. The higher strikeout rate and a career-low BABIP led to his .260 AVG last season. Over the previous six seasons, he never had a BABIP under .290.

Besides the strikeouts, part of the batting average decline can be related to his legs slowing down as seen with his Sprint Speed dropping. He’s just a 32-year-old in the decline phase of his career.

As for drafting him, his projected low-30’s home runs and .275 AVG seem reasonable. I could see someone ding his batting average some more and the steals may be done so even five may be too much. He’s just but just not first-round material.

“Jose Uriquidy is going to be a #3 for #4 be the time the season starts”

I like the 24-year-old righty on the surface, but I’m not sure I ready to rely on him as a regular. Right now he’s going 88th in NFBC Online Championship leagues. With about 25 closers going before him, his he’s going as a 4th to 5th starter.

His profile is decent with four average or better swing-or-miss pitches. The problem is that besides his 62% GB% curve, all his pitches give up a ton of flyballs especially his 26% GB% four-seamer. He allowed a 1.3 HR/9 last season but projections have it increasing to the 1.5 to 1.7 HR/9 range. And then his projected ERA jumps into the mid-4’s. Not really a desirable value.

I’m having a tough time valuing him. If he can throw five innings in a start, he’s got a decent chance for a Win. But if the matchup is a little rough, he’s likely headed to my bench. He’s just a 5th or 6th streaming option for me. I can’t see moving him up at his current price, only down. If it means I won’t own him, too bad.

 

The beat Jeff Zimmerman Online Championship league has been setup for Febuary 23rd at 8 pm ET, feel free to go to the NFBC and sign up for their Draft or Online Championships. Also, for those with deeper pocketbooks, the NFBC Main Events are quickly filling up.