Randy Holt’s Bold Predictions for the Third Base Position

Across the network recently, we’ve featured writers sharing their bold predictions for the impending 2017 season. Since I’m more of a follower than a leader with little sense of individuality, this is a path that I will also be traversing. However, I’ll be limiting my bold and sweeping declarations to the spot where I make my living on this site: the hot corner. Let’s look at a few potentially terribly, and very likely, misguided opinions that I have about the third base position heading into the new season.

Alex Bregman: Top 5 Third Baseman

Donaldson. Bryant. Arenado. Machado. Bregman? While there’s a lot to love about his skill set, declaring that Bregman will join the likes of those four by the end of his first full season still seems lofty. As a high-contact, high-power guy, though, there’s plenty of reason for optimism regarding the Houston Astros’ third sacker.

Across three levels in 2016, Alex Bregman hit 28 homers, including eight upon his introduction to the big league level. He maintained a high hard contact rate, with a Hard% that came in at 28.0%, as well as a 28.2% linedrive rate. He showed more than capable of making adjustments having recovered from a brutal 1-for-32 start to his big league career. It’s that ability to adjust that is crucial in the optimism for Bregman moving into 2017. Because he demonstrated the ability to adjust (and based off of his trends across the minor leagues0, that 24.0% strikeout rate should drop significantly, while the 74.7% contact rate is due to rise. When you consider that idea combined with the power and high-OBP skills, Bregman could be a threat in every facet in 2017. Adjustments will be necessary throughout the course of the year, but if they come quickly (as Bregman has demonstrated he’s capable of), he’s going to be another young nightmare for opposing pitching.

Jake Lamb will make the biggest move up the leaderboard

Honestly, I was going to make a declaration here that Jake Lamb would be the best third baseman in baseball, and if you’ve paid any semblance of attention to the things I’ve said for the last calendar year, that wouldn’t be too surprising of a statement. Obviously that’s an unrealistic scenario, but I’m still anticipating big things for a player who ranked 12th at the position, in terms of his offense value, last year (and 16th in WAR).

There are detractors here, to be sure. Lamb’s second half was brutal, due to a nagging injury, and his numbers against left-handed pitching leave a lot to be desired. In regard to the latter, he was always under the tutelage of a manager who sheltered him against southpaws. But those first half numbers, man. A .291 average, .322 ISO, .983 OPS, and wRC+ of 151. He made hard contact at a rate over 41%. Much of that isn’t entirely sustainable over an entire year, but it sure is encouraging moving forward. Even if he continues to suffer from the strikeouts at a 24-26% rate like he has in the last two seasons, his power potential over a full season makes him such a desirable asset.

Maikel Franco will fade from fantasy relevance

Maikel Franco was 21st out of 24 qualifying third sackers in WAR last year, and Off had him providing negative offensive value to the Phils, at a -7.3 figure. There’s power there, to be sure. He hit 25 home runs last year, his highest in any year, at any level. But is that selling out for power actually going to get him anywhere? If anything, it hurt him in a number of regards.

Though it’s difficult to compare his 335 plate appearances in 2015 to his 630 in 2016, I’m going to do it anyway. His average fell from .280 to .255 and his on-base dropped from .343 to only .306. His ISO fell 55 points, going from .217 in 2015 to a .172 mark, even with the influx in balls hit over the fence. It all culminated in him finishing as a below average offensive player, at a wRC+ of 92. If you’re going to sell out for power in a way that hurts you like that, at least drop 40 dingers like Todd Frazier did. He’s never been a high walk game, so he needs to slug his way on base with regularity. And if his approach is one that’s emphasizing power above all else, it’s tough to get too excited about him going into 2017. The potential is there, and I did explore that possibility a few weeks ago. But I’m not terribly optimistic.

Justin Turner’s power is here to stay

Some of what Justin Turner did last year was relatively normal for him. His strikeout and walk rates remained relatively constant, and he swung pitch types in a very similar fashion to what he’d done throughout his career. There was a drop in his on-base percentage, potentially brought on by a nearly 30-point drop in his BABIP. In notching a career-best 622 plate appearances, though, what changed significantly for Turner was in the power game. His 27 homers were nine more than his previous career high, and his ISO went from .197 in 2015 to .218 last season, the latter of which was also a career mark.

The formula’s a relatively simple one. Turner hit the ball harder than he ever had, with a 37.6 Hard%, and in the air more than ever, at a 40.0% clip. Factor in the additional plate appearances brought on by a healthy season, and the power makes a whole lot of sense. His strikeout rate increased by only a percentage point, so there’s not really a concern that he was selling out for power, either, which is extremely encouraging. I touched on some elements of his game during 2016, but the long and short of it is that he’s a legitimate power threat now. While there wasn’t much of a basis for it before 2016, because he’d never hit more than 16 home runs or posted an ISO over .200, there are a lot of trends here that favor a continuation of his power coming into the season.

Are these predictions overly “bold”? Not necessarily. But I’m not an overly bold person to begin with. I’d love to hear people who are far more reckless than I am throw out some legitimate boldness for the third base position for 2017. So sound off below.