Random Thoughts: Ottoneu, Tout Wars, Deep Prospects

by
April 29, 2016

Ottoneu Lineup

Here is a simple rule for daily lineups with game played limits:

If a player isn’t playing that day and you don’t need the games, move him to the bench.

I lost a game a few days back when a player who I knew wasn’t playing, hit for one at bat. It was for my utility slot which I can easily fill over the season, so I probably lost a few at-bats.

Boring Team

One fun part of a fantasy baseball auction is the ability to get the players an owner wants. Just like everyone else, I have my favorites. The problem is others like these players and they end up coming at a premium price.

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In my Tour Wars auction this year, I went strictly for value plays for hitters. My competitors are the best in the game, so I didn’t wanted to overpay for any player. I was able to underbid for everyone except Heyward. In the end, I may have ended up with the world’s most boring lineup. Try not to fall asleep as you read this list:

Lucas Duda, Brian Dozier, Jonathan Villar, Matt Carpenter, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Christian Yelich, Jason Heyward, Jose Bautista, Jacob Realmuto, Welington Castillo, Steven Souza, Mark Trumbo, Dustin Pedroia

Not one young breakout candidate and some of the players have really struggled to start the season. What this group of players has done is put up some great stats. At times, I have been at the top of OBP, Runs, RBIs, and HRs all at once. When I wrote this article, I fell down to 2nd in RBIs while still being first in the other three. As a plan, I didn’t concentrate on stolen bases and am trying to win the other four categories every week.

The one issue I have with my hitters is their age. I could see a few go on the DL this season. Right now, I will take the steady good production. It feels great to be on top with a boring team than back in the pack with a fancy pants team.

Deep League Pitching Prospects

Besides Tout Wars, I am also in a 20-team, 40-man league (with 3 DL slots) so between 800 and 860 players are rostered at any one time. In the league, I found I was behind the eight-ball with all the owners being all over any possible prospect, so I had to come up with my own system to find players. When I created it, I was looking back. This season is the first time I have used it as data was constantly changing. Using data from 2015 and 2016, here is how it ranks the top 23 pitchers who pitched in the minors the last two seasons. Their rank is based on age, level, role, and production at the level.

1. Julio Urias
2. Jose Berrios
3. Tyler Glasnow
4. Luis Severino
5. Edwin Diaz
6. Tyler Danish
7. Lucas Giolito
8. Jake Thompson
9. Ronald Herrera
10. Antonio Senzatela
11. Francis Martes
12. Spencer Adams
13. Zach Eflin
14. Alex Reyes
15. Blake Snell
16. Josh Hader
17. Justus Sheffield
18. Clayton Blackburn
19. Zach Davies
20. Jacob Faria
21. Jose De Leon
22. Michael Fulmer
23. Brent Honeywell

Right now three names stick out (Danish, Herrera, and Senzatela) to me for not being on any top 100 list or high on any team’s top 30. Here ars my thoughts on the trio.

Tyler Danish (White Sox) – His name showed up as a top pitcher before the season based mainly on being a 20-year-old in AA and doing OK. He is repeating AA again and his stats are similar, a low strikeout, walk, and home run rate. He is a nice sinker-ball pitcher and his performance will be linked to his BABIP. According to MLBfarm, his groundball rate on the season is at 53% which has helped to keep his HR rate minuscule.

Ronald Herrera (Yankees) – Herrera flew up my rankings to start the season with a 27% K% and 6% BB% in AA (also had a decent AAA start mixed in). He is now probably better known for throwing eight innings of a no-hitter earlier this week. Watching one of his starts, I was able to find out his sinking fastball sits 90-94 mph and he has a devastating change. He also throws a decent curve. The combination of the three downward breaking pitches has put his groundball rate at 56%. The biggest complaint against Herrera is his small size (5’10, 168 lbs), but if he continues to be productive he should stay as a starter.

Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) – Of the three pitchers, he is getting the most love from other prospect writers, but I won’t go near him. I am just not going to waste a roster spot on a Rockies pitching prospect until the team proves they can develop an above average MLB starter. They have not been able to do it in years and until that changes, I will just stay away.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago

Congrats on your Tout success so far. However I don’t know that you can attribute your “boring vets” theory as the driver…

Someone who picked Jose Abreu, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Price, Zach Greinke, etc. etc…. that team would also meet your boring vets strategy, and possibly come cheaper than expected at the draft, but would be in last place.

Similarly, if you took V.Velasquez, Thor, Smyly, Taijuan, Correa, Story, Piscotty, Conforto, Suarez, etc., you’d be sitting pretty with a “fancy pants” team.

Basically, it just comes down to picking the right players, regardless of strategy. I think you should get credit for picking a set of players who started great!

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