Quick Looks: Ross, Chapman, Fisher, & Kuhl
Very Quick Look: Tyson Ross
Tyson Ross made one start and his results seem acceptable with a 7.9 K/9 and a 3.18 ERA. Beyond those two stats, his line gets ugly. His fastball velocity is down to 90.1 mph which is ~2.5 mph less than last season and ~4.5 mph off his career peak. He walked three batters in only 5.1 innings of work. His swinging strike rate was just 5.3% which would be a career low.
With the mixed signals, I decided to take a quick look at his start.
• He started off the game with two pitches way outside and walked the first batter. This at bat set the tone for the rest of the game.
• Fastball: 88-92 mph and I’m not sure on the desired break. This pitch was a mess. He threw ten or so way off the plate. No control or feel for it. Here’s a pitch location graph to show how off he was in this start.
Besides the lack of control, I’m not sure how a 90 mph fastball will work with a fastball-slider starter. Without the extra velocity, his fastball will likely get destroyed.
• Sinker: 88-91 mph. It was a little tough to tell he threw this pitch with his overall inconsistencies. It may have some deceptive sink.
• Slider: 81 to 86 mph with 12-6 break. It was comparable to a hard curve at its best. The amount of movement on this pitch was all over the place though. Sometimes it broke straight down and generated swings-and-misses and other times they stayed up.
• Change: 81-82 mph, straight. Just threw a couple early in the game.
• Remember he is coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome which has shown limited success even before this season and the results haven’t gotten better as seen with Matt Harvey. Limit expectations.
Conclusion. I don’t think he is startable at this point in his return. He needs to show some improved control and velocity to be a reliable starter.
Notes
• Chad Kuhl’s fastball velocity is up significantly along throwing a new curveball.
During his debut season with the Pirates, Kuhl had a fastball that averaged 90-93 mph, and he used his two-seamer to induce ground balls. Now, Kuhl is touching 99 mph with his four-seamer and has added a devastating new pitch to his arsenal.
“In his last two starts, he’s taken to the curveball like nobody I’ve seen in 43 years in the game,” manager Clint Hurdle said Sunday.
This evolution — call it Kuhl 2.0 — has been dramatic and significant. It’s also rare, according to Hurdle. Management is intrigued by the potential it has created, which is why it was Tyler Glasnow and not Kuhl 2.0 who was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis to make room in the rotation for Jameson Taillon.
Even with the velocity jump, Kuhl’s struggling with a 5.61 ERA because his BB/9 stands at 3.8 BB/9 (2.6 BB/9 in 2016) while his strikeouts have increased from 6.8 K/9 to only 7.1 K/9.
• Matt Chapman (Oakland) and Derek Fisher (Houston) got promoted recently to the majors. Here are the players who had similar prospect grades.
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Batting | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman | 2017 | MLB | 45 | 60 | 40 | 70 | 75 |
| Fernando Tatis, Jr. | 2017 | FanGraphs | 50 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 70 |
| Will Middlebrooks | 2012 | BA | 50 | 65 | 40 | 60 | 70 |
| Matt Chapman | 2017 | BA | 40 | 55 | 40 | 60 | 80 |
| Lucas Erceg | 2017 | FanGraphs | 55 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 70 |
| Seuly Matias | 2017 | FanGraphs | 45 | 60 | 40 | 55 | 70 |
| Austin Hedges | 2014 | MLB | 50 | 50 | 40 | 65 | 65 |
| Carlos Correa | 2013 | MLB | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 70 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 2014 | MLB | 45 | 60 | 45 | 55 | 75 |
| Javier Guerra | 2016 | BA | 50 | 55 | 45 | 60 | 65 |
| Javier Guerra | 2016 | MLB | 45 | 55 | 45 | 65 | 60 |
| Cody Bellinger | 2017 | FanGraphs | 45 | 70 | 40 | 70 | 60 |
| Yandy Diaz | 2017 | FanGraphs | 45 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 70 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 2017 | BA | 45 | 70 | 50 | 60 | 70 |
| Matt Chapman | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 60 |
| Sean Murphy | 2016 | MLB PreDraft | 45 | 50 | 40 | 55 | 70 |
| Justin O’Conner | 2015 | MLB | 40 | 50 | 30 | 60 | 80 |
| Austin Hedges | 2014 | BA | 50 | 50 | 40 | 65 | 60 |
| Taylor Ward | 2016 | BA | 50 | 45 | 40 | 60 | 70 |
| Will Benson | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 70 | 40 | 55 | 80 |
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Batting | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Fisher | 2017 | FanGraphs | 45 | 60 | 70 | 45 | 40 |
| Derek Fisher | 2017 | MLB | 45 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 40 |
| Anthony Alford | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 70 | 55 | 40 |
| Anthony Alford | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 55 | 70 | 55 | 40 |
| Taylor Trammell | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 55 | 70 | 55 | 40 |
| Thomas Jones | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
| Anfernee Grier | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
| Mitch Haniger | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Mitch Haniger | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Shedric Long | 2017 | FanGraphs | 45 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 2015 | 2080 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Corey Ray | 2017 | FanGraphs | 60 | 60 | 70 | 50 | 40 |
| Brian Goodwin | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Cedric Mullens | 2017 | FanGraphs | 50 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
| Lazaro Armenteros | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 40 |
| Nick Williams | 2016 | 2080 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Stone Garrett | 2017 | FanGraphs | 35 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 40 |
| Garrett Whitley | 2017 | FanGraphs | 40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
| Tyler O’Neill | 2016 | BA – Scouts View | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
| Tim Anderson | 2015 | BA | 50 | 50 | 70 | 50 | 55 |
| Brett Jackson | 2012 | BA | 55 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Sean Coyle | 2015 | MLB | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
| Forrest Wall | 2016 | MLB | 55 | 45 | 65 | 40 | 45 |
The pair is similar in that they both may struggle with batting average (both can draw a walk) while hitting for above average power.
As for differences, Fisher has above average speed which has led to 25 to 30 stolen bases each season. I am a concerned the Astros will slow down his running since he’s only 14 for 25 in stolen base attempts this season (56%). On the other hand, Chapman is going to have some steals but he hasn’t shown the potential to reach double digits.
The other difference is projected playing time. Chapman looks to be the Athletics’s full-time third baseman with Trevor Plouffe off the roster. As for Fisher, his call-up is likely temporary. He’ll likely get demoted once Josh Reddick comes off the concussion DL.
• MLB.com Bryan Hoch explains why Luis Severino will likely not be on an innings limit this season.
Do the Yankees plan on putting Luis Severino on an innings count for this season?
— Daniel E., Brooklyn, N.Y.Severino threw 161 innings at three levels in 2015, including 62 1/3 in the Majors, and tallied 148 2/3 last season between the big leagues and the Minors. Given his 2015 numbers, he would have been on track to pitch about 200 innings in the Majors, though he obviously never got close because his performance as a starter was so poor.
If their target is anything less this year — and they haven’t said so publicly — it should only be a slight dip. Severino has thrown 81 1/3 innings through 13 starts, so that puts him on pace for 187 1/3 if he were to make 30 starts. Given his age and strength (Girardi often marvels that Severino’s stuff doesn’t seem to taper off the third time through the lineup), that shouldn’t be an issue.
• Watch the Red Sox give up a triple to Drew Butera. Bonus hair flip.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
In fact Fisher already has been sent back to AAA.