Projecting MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects.

by
February 3, 2017

Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.

Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent.  While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH.

MLB.com’s Top Hitter Fantasy Value
Name Position MLB Rank Hit Power Run Field Arm Overall MLB Grade Fantasy Grade AVG Runs HR RBI SB
Yoan Moncada 2B 2 60 55 65 50 60 65 59 0.261 79 20 72 19
Victor Robles OF 8 60 50 70 60 65 60 59 0.261 77 18 70 26
Andrew Benintendi OF 1 65 55 55 60 50 65 58 0.265 80 20 73 11
Lewis Brinson OF 18 50 60 60 60 55 55 57 0.255 80 22 73 15
Corey Ray OF 30 55 55 60 55 50 55 57 0.258 79 20 71 15
Gleyber Torres SS 3 65 55 50 55 60 65 56 0.265 80 20 73 8
Cody Bellinger 1B/OF 13 55 65 45 70 55 60 56 0.258 83 24 75 6
Anthony Alford OF 70 50 50 70 60 45 55 56 0.255 76 18 69 26
Austin Meadows OF 10 60 50 60 60 40 60 56 0.261 77 18 70 15
Clint Frazier OF 24 50 60 55 55 55 55 56 0.255 80 22 73 11
Kyle Lewis OF 29 55 60 50 50 60 55 56 0.258 81 22 73 8
Jorge Mateo SS/2B 47 50 40 80 55 60 55 55 0.255 71 14 65 45
Kyle Tucker OF 35 60 55 50 50 55 55 55 0.261 79 20 72 8
Manny Margot OF 23 60 40 70 70 60 55 55 0.261 73 14 66 26
Leody Taveras OF 55 55 50 60 60 55 55 54 0.258 77 18 69 15
Nick Senzel 3B 26 60 50 55 55 60 55 54 0.261 77 18 70 11
Ian Happ 2B/OF 28 60 50 55 45 55 55 54 0.261 77 18 70 11
Hunter Renfroe OF 42 50 60 50 50 60 55 54 0.255 80 22 73 8
Eloy Jimenez OF 14 55 60 45 50 60 60 54 0.258 81 22 73 6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B 34 55 60 45 45 55 55 54 0.258 81 22 73 6
Tyler O’Neill OF 36 55 60 45 50 55 55 54 0.258 81 22 73 6
Dansby Swanson SS 4 60 45 60 60 55 60 54 0.261 75 16 68 15
Amed Rosario SS 5 60 45 60 65 65 60 54 0.261 75 16 68 15
Mickey Moniak OF 19 60 45 60 60 50 55 54 0.261 75 16 68 15
Derek Fisher OF 83 45 55 60 45 40 55 54 0.251 78 20 70 15
Bradley Zimmer OF 22 50 55 55 60 55 55 54 0.255 78 20 71 11
Brendan Rodgers SS/2B 15 55 55 50 50 60 55 53 0.258 79 20 71 8
Blake Rutherford OF 37 55 55 50 50 50 55 53 0.258 79 20 71 8
Josh Bell 1B/OF 27 60 55 45 45 50 55 53 0.261 79 20 72 6
Franklin Barreto SS/2B 52 55 50 55 45 60 55 53 0.258 77 18 69 11
Alex Verdugo OF 61 60 50 50 50 70 55 53 0.261 77 18 70 8
Aaron Judge OF 45 45 60 50 50 60 55 53 0.251 80 22 72 8
Rafael Devers 3B 17 55 60 40 50 55 55 53 0.258 81 22 73 5
Ozzie Albies 2B/SS 11 65 30 70 65 55 60 52 0.265 69 10 62 26
Kevin Maitan SS 32 60 55 40 50 65 55 52 0.261 79 20 72 5
Willy Adames SS 21 55 50 50 55 60 55 51 0.258 77 18 69 8
Alex Kirilloff OF 98 55 50 50 50 50 55 51 0.258 77 18 69 8
Isan Diaz SS/2B 65 50 55 45 50 50 55 51 0.255 78 20 71 6
Willie Calhoun 2B 82 55 55 40 40 45 55 50 0.258 79 20 71 5
Delvin Perez SS 91 50 40 65 60 60 55 50 0.255 71 14 65 19
Raimel Tapia OF 90 60 40 55 50 55 55 50 0.261 73 14 66 11
Jake Bauers OF/1B 76 55 50 45 55 50 55 50 0.258 77 18 69 6
Dominic Smith 1B 63 60 50 40 60 50 55 50 0.261 77 18 70 5
Jesse Winker OF 67 60 50 40 45 45 55 50 0.261 77 18 70 5
Matt Chapman 3B/SS 100 45 60 40 70 75 55 50 0.251 80 22 72 5
Richard Urena SS 94 50 45 55 50 60 55 49 0.255 74 16 67 11
Jorge Alfaro C 72 45 55 45 50 70 55 49 0.251 78 20 70 6
J.P. Crawford SS 7 60 40 50 65 60 60 49 0.261 73 14 66 8
Jeimer Candelario 3B/1B 96 55 50 40 50 55 55 48 0.258 77 18 69 5
Christian Arroyo SS/3B/2B 89 60 45 40 50 55 55 48 0.261 75 16 68 5
Chance Sisco C 99 60 45 40 50 45 55 48 0.261 75 16 68 5
Zack Collins C 81 55 55 30 45 50 55 47 0.258 79 20 71 3
Nick Gordon SS 50 55 40 50 55 55 55 47 0.258 72 14 65 8
Albert Almora OF 75 55 40 50 65 60 55 47 0.258 72 14 65 8
Francisco Mejia C 40 55 45 40 50 70 55 46 0.258 74 16 67 5
Kevin Newman SS 59 60 30 55 50 50 55 46 0.261 68 10 62 11
Bobby Bradley 1B 95 45 60 20 40 50 55 44 0.251 80 22 72 2
Carson Kelly C 39 50 50 20 65 60 55 41 0.255 76 18 69 2

Before getting to the risers and fallers, one key an owners must consider is the player’s distance from the majors. Blake Rutherford has a chance to be a nice major league hitter but he has yet to play past rookie level ball. For owners in dynasty leagues, feel free to acquire the most talented players and wait. For those in redraft leagues, make sure you have an understanding of the prospect’s MLB chances.

I’m not going to examine each player but I will go over players whose stock changed or I just find the player interesting.

  • This rookie class is missing star talent. Moncada and Benintendi are good, but they aren’t Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Kris Bryant. Many top prospects have graduated to the majors in the past couple of years so expectations are down.
  • Without defense counting, J.P. Crawford’s value drops significantly. He is a perfect example of why prospect lists shouldn’t be used without needed context. Kevin Newman, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Gordon are three other defense first prospects who take a hit in fantasy versus real life rankings.
  • If you are needing steals, look for prospects getting the call with speed grades over 70. One player, I like going into next season, is the Padres’Manuel Margot. He has a clear path to the majors and will be on a non-contending team who let Wil Myers attempt 34 stolen bases last year.
  • Three players who are ready to be productive regulars in 2017 are Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows, and Clint Frazier. They just need the opportunity.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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OlegMember since 2021
8 years ago

Lewis Brinson is a Brewer now.

2
alang3131982Member since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  Oleg

He quit baseball?!?

36
OlegMember since 2021
8 years ago
Reply to  alang3131982

Nicely done.

3